Hi everyone. I’m Keith and some of you may know me as one half of the Acebots team behind Bethawk.
As Amy has a lot of reviews to catch up on, I’ve volunteered my services to help out where I can. She has asked me to take on a review which in the past has been quite volatile on these pages and hopefully bring some clarity to it. I would hope that being a system vendor myself will help me see any issues that arise from both a vendor and subscriber perspective.
The systems on offer from Football Betting Alerts seem to have changed a bit since the review earlier this year and will now contain the Professor’s Picks, which are lay the score at half time selections and the PAD (Pre Match Analysis) Tool which allows you to input certain criteria, again based on goals, and will output matches where your criteria fits. I will be running these systems from 1st October for what is at the moment a non fixed term.
One of the issues I see on the horizon is that of being available to place bets for all the selections so I will be recording the half time odds for each selection so that every selection made can be verified against the published results at FBA regardless of whether I was available to place bets on it. There is an optional bot for use with the system from a third party vendor but we do not have access to that for this review.
There is an international break in the football calender coming up so me may get off to a slow start but these periods are now part and parcel of football of course.
Once we have some results under our belt I’ll be back with an update of how things are going.
Lucy’s Original Introduction: 2nd March 2017
I have been hearing a lot lately about a new service called Football Betting Alerts.
(Pre-Match, in fact, did better than ‘pretty well’: it walked off with my 2013 Best Product Oscar).
Football Betting Alerts, however, looks like quite a different beast from its predecessors.
Importantly, it can be used for straight betting rather than just trading: which is likely to extend its appeal to folks with less time on their hands than your average trader.
It also comes with some very impressive claimed results.
Now, of course, I can’t vouch for these but still: you have to start somewhere.
So… what’s it all about?
FBA is a service that has apparently been developed with the help of a maths professor.
Well, no, I didn’t initially believe it either.
But the people at FBA assure me that the person behind the service is indeed a professor of mathematics – which, if true, suggests the service will be all about value.
The strike rate is also expected to be higher than I am used to – over 80%, in fact – which should hopefully make for a relatively comfortable ride.
And the service itself?
Well, it appears to depend largely on two main bet types:
- laying the draw (well, it wouldn’t be a football product without LTD, would it!?)
- laying in the correct score market – primarily, it would appear, in-play during the half-time interval.
The idea is that laying alerts are issued by the service when value is detected – so that all you have to do is enter your bets as instructed. You can attempt to trade outcomes or, if you prefer, just let the bets run until full-time.
The service is intended to be used at the exchanges, so, if it works, it will offer hope to those punters whose bookie accounts have long since been closed down.
I’m really excited about this trial.
The initial results, from the bets I’ve seen, seem very encouraging: though, of course, as ever, we need to run a robust trial ourselves and not trust third-party data.
Martin, a veteran of various trials here at Lay Back, is going to lead this one for me. And, as ever, we will aim at a minimum of 200 bets. He will be here with his first report in early April.
In the meantime, you can find out more about Football Betting Alerts over here.
Update: 31st March 2017
Hello there, my name’s Martin, and Lucy has kindly arranged for me to trial Football Betting Alerts.
There has been quite a lot of fuss around this service and the results it is supposedly capable of producing. So naturally, I was keen to get involved and see if it would live up to all the hype.
FBA was developed by the people who produced Pre-Match Trading, In-Play Trading and a whole host of other similar trading products. Pre-Match and In-Play both did pretty well here at Lay Back And Get Rich so I was feeling cautiously optimistic when I kicked off the trial.
I’ve now been going for about a month and, as you’ll see, I’ve been pretty busy, putting on over 100 bets in that time.
And the good news is that I’m starting to get to grips with the service – and I’m making money.
So what is FBA all about?
The service provides selections, called Picks, via the FBA site only. Their advice is to check on the site 3 or 4 times a week to see if any are available. There is no email notification of these.
The posting of the Picks can be a bit random, as they are sometimes available 2 or 3 days in advance of the games but, at other times, are not posted until a few hours before kick-off. I’m not clear as to why this should be as a few times the site mentioned that there would be X amount of picks for a specific date in the future, so clearly the Picks had been decided on but they weren’t published until closer to that date.
The Picks started out as either Lay the Draw (LTD) at a stated odds value or Lay Current Score (LCS) at half time, again for a recommended odds value. Sometimes a back of the Over X Goals would be taken instead of the LCS depending on which option was most beneficial.
An additional strategy was added last week, which required that a Lay of the HT draw (HT LTD) be done for part stakes at different times during the First Half.
There didn’t appear to be any prior notification about this and the explanation of how to carry it out initially caused some confusion amongst subscribers in the chat room. A full explanation has since been posted on the site.
Living with the service
The service chat room is well populated in the evening and weekends. It is usually visited at peak times by one or more of the administrators so questions can be asked and advice received from them. This can include some live coaching of betting strategies.
The service can be time-consuming, particularly at weekends when there are lots of Picks. The LTD is ok as it can be set up pre-match but the LCS is reliant upon whatever the score and odds are at half-time and so requires input at that time.
The new HT LTD strategy also requires input at points in the first half. There is a third party bot that can be used to place bets automatically but it does not work yet for the HT LTD strategy and is only available at extra cost.
I chose to purchase a subscription to the bot but there have been some problems and it has had a number of updates in the last month. It does seem to be working now however and should be a time saver for the LCS.
The system can also be used with a small number of other generic bots on the market.
My top-level results are as follows:
|No. of Bets Placed||105|
|No. of Winning Bets||83|
Interestingly, my profits are better than the official results as follows:
|Profit total @ £10 stakes less Betfair Commission|
|FBA Official Results||£114.07|
You can download my results log here. It includes notes on individual trades where appropriate.
There could and will be many different reasons why my figures differ from the official service results, including:
- Some bets may not have been matched before a goal is scored.
- Bets may or may not have been placed after a red card has occurred.
- Bets may have been traded in late in the game where the score was close (you’ll see where I did this on my results log against individual bets).
- Some games were played in the early hours of the morning and so were not placed.
- On one occasion Betfair wasn’t working and so FBA decided it would be fairer to strike the results from their list; however, I managed to place them using other bookmakers (for a healthy profit!).
The first month of FBA has been very satisfactory. I’ve made good returns at a more-than-acceptable strike rate and, reasonably quickly, got the hang of the service.
I feel the bot offers real potential for reducing my time commitment so naturally, I’m hoping it performs smoothly in future.
I am looking forward to month #2 and will return around the end of April with my final report.
Meanwhile, you can read more about Football Betting Alerts here.
Update: 1st May 2017
Hello, Martin here with my second report on Football Betting Alerts.
There has been a lot of ‘interest’ in this new service – both positive and negative. You can get a sense of how it has divided opinion by looking at the comments section.
FBA was built by the folks behind Pre-Match Trading, In-Play Trading and a number of other trading tools. Pre-Match, in particular, was a big hit here at Lay Back so, naturally, I was hoping for great things when I kicked off the trial.
My first month went very well, with profits of around 21 points for the period, which, incidentally, was significantly better than the service’s official results.
Sadly, I lost money this month though remain in the black for the trial as a whole.
The headline figures are as follows:
|Last Month’s Profit (b/fwd)||£217.80|
|This Month’s Profit||-£98.40|
|Overall profit (Pts)||11.94|
All bets have been entered to £10 stakes except for a few half stakes where the Correct Score odds were too high.
As mentioned last month, a new strategy, Lay the HT Draw, had just been introduced, which actually bombed on the first day. I lost over £100 using it. It was immediately withdrawn, although selections are still available for those who want to run with it but it is not included in the results.
Ironically the picks for the day after it was withdrawn would have won back pretty much all the losses made the previous day.
As the strategy had apparently been tested and was sound, it seems that perhaps its withdrawal was just an over-reaction to the terrible results of the first day. However, from many of the comments in the chat room and my own experience, there was no confidence in it and many would not have used it again.
You can download the complete results log for month #2 by clicking here.
The month #1 log is available for review here.
The performance of the two main strategies is as different as chalk and cheese.
The Lay the Current Score (LCS) is performing well, making a profit of £222 this month and actually surpassing last month’s LCS figure which was £151.
However, it is being dragged down by the other strategy, Lay The Draw (LTD), which lost £216 this month compared to a profit of £75 last month.
Several of the losses were, to some extent, my fault, as the advice is to trade out of a LTD any time after 82 minutes, especially if the scores are tight. I sometimes did that but I also sometimes took a chance and let the bet run or didn’t have the opportunity to trade out with the result that I inevitably got bitten by late goals and lost where I could have made a small profit. Given the discrepancies between them, there is an argument perhaps to split the two strategies and run them against separate banks.
The system is not ‘set and forget’ as interaction is needed to trade out of LTD if required and for LCS to place the bets at HT depending on the current score and odds, however there is a separately sold bot which, after a number of iterations, now seems to be working properly and is able to take on those tasks.
I would suggest that unless you want to be tied to the computer all night or all weekend, that this would be an essential additional purchase to use with the FBA system.
I’m not sure but I get the impression that as things are not running as well as first expected and that some interest has been lost. The results which were updated and published on the web page every couple of days in the past have not been amended since 20th April.
Also, apparently one or more of the Admins were on holiday or otherwise unavailable and so the picks for last weekend were sent by e-mail and not put up on the web site, despite the standing advice being to check the website every few days for picks.
I can’t understand how, if it were possible to compile a list and email it out why it was not possible to update a web page with that same information. The subscription for this service is quite high and so it should not be too much to ask to have a little consistency about this.
The system is still in profit and things look encouraging for the LCS part of the system, although the high subscription fee would have to be factored into any decision about whether it represents good value.
I intend to run the trial for another two months to get past the ups and downs of normal trialling. Let’s hope this month was just a blip and we return to winning ways next time.
I’ll be back around the start of June.
Meantime, you can read more about Football Betting Alerts here.
Update: 31st May 2017
Hello, Martin here with my third monthly report on Football Betting Alerts.
I’m almost reluctant to make comments on the system this month, as I feel the whole subject has proven to be so controversial. If you don’t know what I’m referring to, you just need to look at the comments at the foot of the page.
I fear some readers, seeing these remarks, may well have essentially consigned the product – and my trial of it – to the dustbin. But my testing is ongoing and I intend to see it through to the end so that the results can speak for themselves.
A quick recap then: FBA is a new service from the guys behind Pre-Match Trading, In-Play Trading and a whole family of other betting products, several of which have done pretty well in trials here at Lay Back.
I have been testing for three months, during which, almost inevitably given that this is sports betting, I’ve experienced boths ups and downs.
In short, month #1 went well and month #2 didn’t but I came into month #3 with a modest profit.
So… would FBA return to form in month #3 or would there be further setbacks along the way?
It’s actually been a pretty positive month for the service.
The top-level performance statistics are as follows:
|Football Betting Alerts – Month 3|
|Month 3 Combined Profit (All 3 Methods)||£189.40|
|Method 1 – LCS Monthly Profit||£278.16|
|Method 2 – LTD Monthly Profit||-£88.76|
|Method 3 – HT LTD Monthly Profit||£0.00|
|Brought Forward Profit from Months 1 & 2||£119.40|
|Whole Trial Net Profit (£)||£308.80|
|Whole Trial Net Profit (Pts.)||30.88|
As you can see the overall profit has risen from £119.40 last month to £308.80, an increase of £189.40 after Betfair commission to £10 stakes.
Without the LTD bets, the monthly profit would have been £278, which inevitably make you wonder whether to bother with them at all (You can see why I don’t have a decision to make about this in the Summary section below). In any event, I think it’s fair to say that FBA has had a good month overall.
If only the LCS picks had been bet on, the results would have been even better. Interestingly, if you look at the previous two months, each of those would have been profitable as well, if only LCS bets had been entered.
You can get hold of the complete results log for month #3 by clicking here.
The service is performing a lot better in my trial than many of the naysayers would have you believe.
However, the monthly subscription charge is £79, so this does need to be taken into account when looking at what profit is made.
My concern is that FBA was supposed to have been tested extensively, so it seems odd that, three months or so after its release, the supplier has effectively admitted that there is an issue with the LTD picks and that that they will be concentrating only on LCS bets for a while.
That, and the withdrawal of the HT LTD tips after disastrous results last month, makes me wonder just how rigorous the testing really was.
There are one or two other gripes as well.
- A few times, the game times that were published were out by one hour which meant I missed putting bets on.
- Also, the general administration has sometimes been of poor quality. I recently received a message to say that now the admins were back from holiday this would be addressed. But for a supposedly professional service charging a very large subscription, I think the absence of administrators for whatever reason should not impact on the service people are paying for.
I’m going to keep the trial going for at least one more month and then wrap things up for good.
I’ll be back with my conclusion around the end of June.
Meanwhile, you can find out more about Football Betting Alerts here.