I love the idea of a tips service that works at Betfair SP as there’s no relying on bookies or rushing around trying to get the right odds.
Lucy was on a mission to find profitable BSP services and the Professor’s Formula was one of the latest that she was trialling. Unfortunately she didn’t get round to finishing the review, so I am picking up from where she left off.
It’s safe to say things were not going to plan, after a couple of disastrous months she was left -£739.35 down to £10 stakes from 71 bets. Her enthusiasm for the service was pretty much non-existant by that stage but month three finally produced a profit, albeit just a small gain of £44.16.
Although things had started to head in the right direction, she was still down by -£695.20 and faced an uphill battle to get her bank back to where it started at £1000.
It’s been six months since the last update, so I have had the decision to make – do I carry on with this trial or call it a day?
My decision has been made easy after checking out the results reported by Tipster Street, which show a further loss of £646.10 to £10 stakes. This means she would indeed have wiped out her bank and on that basis I really don’t see any point in continuing.
Sadly it’s a Failed rating this time, but I’m determined to carry on with Lucy’s mission to find a profitable BSP tipster.
I’ve made a start by kicking off her trial of 1-2-3 System, so fingers crossed I won’t have to wait too long!
Lucy’s Original Introduction: 8th February 2017
I’m on something of a mission to find services that are designed to make money at Betfair as opposed to at the bookies.
This is sometimes done by issuing laying selections — which, by definition, cannot be used at the archaic bookmaker sites — or, more commonly, by recommending back bets to be entered at Betfair SP.
Now, if you look at the Betfair-oriented services that I’ve reviewed so far you’ll find that they’ve been, at best, a bit of a mixed bag.
So: my search continues.
And it brings me to an appealing-looking service from Tipster Street called… the Professor’s Formula.
I’m really interested in this… and not just because of the cute graphic!
This looks, on the face of it, like it could be exactly what I’ve been looking for.
You see, the Professor’s Formula is designed to be used at Betfair SP only.
Tips for straight win bets are supplied every day of the week including Sundays for anything from 1 to 3 points.
And get this – the service claims an ROI of…35%.
Seriously, if the Professor’s Formula can achieve anything close to this, it will instantly become one of the most important trials I’ve ever run in the history of my site.
So I’m officially excited. 🙂
One of the wonderful things about services that work at Betfair SP is that there can be no arguing about the results you achieve with them.
Unlike so many bookie-based products, there cannot be a gap between the price you get and the odds the tipster obtains. Betfair SP is a matter of public record at Timeform, so all results will be completely transparent.
The challenge this presents the tipster with is how to find value. After all, (s)he cannot know what the Betfair SP will be before the start of the race… so how can they know whether the proposed bet is an attractive one or not?
Well, fortunately, we can leave this conundrum for the Professor and concentrate instead on the matter of running our trial. As ever, I’ll aim at 200 bets which, at an average of 24 tips a month, implies a trial of around 8 months or so.
I’ll be back in March with my first report.
In the meantime, you can find out more about the Professor’s Formula here.
Update: 11th March 2017
A repeated recent theme in many of the recent trials here at Lay Back has been the desire to find services that work at Betfair Starting Prices (BSP).
Products that deliver against this (admittedly tough) yardstick are sought after by readers for a number of reasons:
- They free you from the tyranny of bookie account closures
- Trial results are beyond dispute as they are a matter of public record at Timeform
- Tipsters can’t conveniently massage their results by ‘just happening’ to get better prices than their members
- They’re simplicity itself to use: just throw your bets onto the exchange at BSP any time before the off and you’re done.
Sadly, services that can regularly make money in this way aren’t easy to find.
Generally, most products have struggled though.
All of which brings me to my latest BSP contender… the Professor’s Formula.
So, one month into our new trial, are we making any money yet?
It’s been a dreadful first month.
We’ve lost almost exactly half our 100 point/£1000 bank in just 43 bets!
|All bets placed at Betfair SP||Complete trial|
|%age bank Growth||-49.75%|
|Wins(races w/ profit)||7|
The results log reveals just how appalling month #1 has been…
|Date||Time||Racecourse||Selection||Pts.||BF Win SP||Result||Profit @ Betfair SP||Bank Balance|
|06-Feb||16.20||Wolverhampton||Angelito||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 970.00|
|07-Feb||16.40||Newcastle||Genres||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 940.00|
|08-Feb||15.00||Chelmsford||Bracken Brae||3.00||2.83||WON||£ 52.16||£ 992.16|
|10-Feb||14.00||Southwell||Trenchard||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)||£ 972.16|
|10-Feb||14.30||Southwell||Custard The Dragon||1.00||3.39||WON||£ 22.71||£ 994.86|
|10-Feb||15.00||Southwell||Bring On A Spinner||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 984.86|
|11-Feb||18.15||Wolverhampton||Masamah||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 974.86|
|13-Feb||17.50||Wolverhampton||Siege Of Boston||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 964.86|
|14-Feb||14.40||Newcastle||Genres||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 934.86|
|14-Feb||16.40||Newcastle||Channel Packet||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 904.86|
|15-Feb||19.50||Kempton||Chandon Elysees||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 874.86|
|16-Feb||15.55||Lingfield||Cohesion||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 844.86|
|16-Feb||19.00||Chelmsford||Aldreth||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 814.86|
|16-Feb||20.00||Chelmsford||Turaathy||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 784.86|
|16-Feb||20.30||Chelmsford||Topalova||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 754.86|
|17-Feb||15.25||Newcastle||Petite Jack||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 724.86|
|18-Feb||14.20||Lingfield||Verne Castle||1.00||3.03||WON||£ 19.29||£ 744.15|
|18-Feb||17.45||Kempton||Bushel||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 714.15|
|20-Feb||14.10||Wolverhampton||Race Time||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 704.15|
|21-Feb||14.40||Southwell||Dibloam||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)||£ 684.15|
|21-Feb||16.10||Southwell||Bounty Pursuit||1.00||1.99||WON||£ 9.41||£ 693.55|
|22-Feb||14.55||Lingfield||Saint Honore||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 663.55|
|22-Feb||18.45||Kempton||Included||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 633.55|
|24-Feb||14.55||Lingfield||Paris Bound||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 603.55|
|24-Feb||19.15||Wolverhampton||Gilgamesh||1.00||2.25||WON||£ 11.88||£ 615.43|
|24-Feb||20.15||Wolverhampton||Lostock||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 605.43|
|27-Feb||15.55||Wolverhampton||Fast Track||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 595.43|
|27-Feb||16.25||Wolverhampton||Heart Locket||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 565.43|
|28-Feb||14.30||Lingfield||Island Brave||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)||£ 545.43|
|01-Mar||19.30||Newcastle||Slingsby||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 535.43|
|02-Mar||20.55||Chelmsford||Topalova||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 505.43|
|03-Mar||14.10||Lingfield||El Torito||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)||£ 485.43|
|03-Mar||17.15||Newcastle||Aldreth||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 455.43|
|03-Mar||18.15||Newcastle||Rock Of America||2.00||2.16||WON||£ 22.04||£ 477.47|
|04-Mar||15.45||Lingfield||Robot Boy||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 467.47|
|04-Mar||16.20||Lingfield||Grey Britain||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)||£ 447.47|
|06-Mar||16.40||Wolverhampton||Filament Of Gold||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 417.47|
|06-Mar||17.10||Wolverhampton||Cohesion||3.00||7.14||WON||£ 174.99||£ 592.46|
|07-Mar||14.00||Southwell||Treaty Of Rome||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)||£ 572.46|
|09-Mar||15.20||Southwell||Bounty Pursuit||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 562.46|
|09-Mar||16.30||Southwell||Last Chance Paddy||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)||£ 542.46|
|09-Mar||17.05||Southwell||Pick Of Any||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)||£ 532.46|
|09-Mar||17.35||Southwell||Priors Park||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)||£ 502.46|
I can’t think of a single positive thing to say.
I have had so many bad opening months to Lay Back trials that I have talked previously about the New Triallist’s Curse. But this really surpasses almost every previous experience. It’s been dismal.
I’ll be back in a month’s time with my next report. It seems unimaginable that I might have something good to tell you but I suppose, you never know.
If, for some mysterious reason, you still want to find out more about the Professor’s Formula, you can do so here.
Update: 11th April 2017
You never quite get used to lousy beginnings to trials.
I love the excitement of starting out with a new system… wondering whether this will be the one that will make my portfolio really take off?
Sadly, in my experience, the answer is too often No – and far too frequently, that answer even comes in the first few anticlimactic weeks.
Certainly, that was the case with the Professor’s Formula, which delivered a truly dismal set of month #1 results.
But maybe I was being hasty, and far better times awaited just around the next bend?
So… did month #2 deliver some much-needed relief?
Instead, it was another tough month as you can see from these performance figures for the period:
|Month 2 results only (at Betfair SP)||Complete trial|
|%age bank Growth||-48.12%|
|Wins(races w/ profit)||8|
And if you think those numbers are depressing, consider these combined totals for the trial as a whole:
|Whole Trial – All bets placed at Betfair SP||Complete trial|
|%age bank Growth||-73.94%|
|Wins(races w/ profit)||15|
They are some of the worst performance figures ever seen in the entire history of my site.
The results log for month #2 makes for a very tough read:
|Date||Time||Racecourse||Selection||Pts.||BF Win SP||Result||Profit @ Betfair SP|
|14-Mar||13.10||Southwell||Busy Street||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)|
|14-Mar||16.25||Southwell||Hammer Gun||1.00||2.74||WON||£ 16.53|
|15-Mar||13.55||Southwell||Seeking Attention||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)|
|17-Mar||15.05||Lingfield||Petite Jack||3.00||2.48||WON||£ 42.18|
|18-Mar||18.45||Wolverhampton||Cote D’Azur||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)|
|20-Mar||15.00||Kempton||Bounty Pursuit||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)|
|20-Mar||17.00||Kempton||Elysian Prince||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)|
|21-Mar||17.00||Southwell||Red Touch||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)|
|28-Mar||16.50||Wolverhampton||Count Octave||1.00||1.33||WON||£ 3.14|
|29-Mar||16.20||Lingfield||Ciel Rouge||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)|
|29-Mar||16.35||Southwell||Paris Bound||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)|
|29-Mar||18.55||Kempton||C’est No Mour||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)|
|01-Apr||15.50||Kempton||Arabian Hope||3.00||2.10||WON||£ 31.35|
|01-Apr||17.00||Kempton||Endless Acres||3.00||1.63||WON||£ 17.96|
|04-Apr||15.15||Southwell||Border Bandit||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)|
|04-Apr||16.20||Southwell||Thomas Cranmer||2.00||LOST||(£ 20.00)|
|05-Apr||15.45||Wolverhampton||Bracken Brae||3.00||1.98||WON||£ 27.93|
|05-Apr||20.15||Kempton||Priors Brook||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)|
|06-Apr||13.55||Southwell||Cuban Queen||1.00||LOST||(£ 10.00)|
|06-Apr||20.15||Chelmsford||The Lampo Genie||3.00||LOST||(£ 30.00)|
You can download the complete results log for the trial by clicking here.
I really liked the sound of the Professors Formula when I kicked off this trial.
Its emphasis on careful selection and betting only at Betfair SP really appealed. But unfortunately, all my enthusiasm has long since drained away.
I will, however, give the trial at least one more month… and if there is no upturn I will make an exception and throw the towel in early. It really is that bad.
If you still would like to find out more about the Professor’s Formula however, you can do so here.
More in early May.
Update: 11th May 2017
I really liked the sound of the Professor’s Formula when I kicked off a trial back in February.
I mean, who wouldn’t?
The sales page talks about it being run by a “selective tipster” and being focussed solely on Betfair SP-based betting. It was all right up my street.
Unfortunately, however, the first two months were very tough indeed. I don’t want to go over it all again now — it’s just too painful.
Still, I’d only put on 71 bets so there was a long way to go.
So… did month #3 bring a much-needed reprieve?
Glory be, we finally had a profitable month.
Admittedly, we banked just 4.5 points but any profit makes a refreshing change after what I’ve been through.
I’m betting at £10 a point and using a £1,000 bank. All selections are entered at Betfair SP with a 5% deduction being made for the commission on winning bets.
The month #3 summary certainly doesn’t represent the single greatest performance in the history of my site but hey, it’s still a move in the right direction:
|Month 3 Performance at Betfair SP||Complete trial|
|%age bank Growth||16.94%|
|Wins(races w/ profit)||9|
Unfortunately, there remains a hell of a long way to go.
To give you an idea of just how far, look at the performance chart. The month #3 upturn appears in the red circle:
You can probably see now why I’m not getting too excited just yet.
The fact remains, I’ve lost almost 70% of my original betting bank. And I can’t imagine what I’d be saying if I was also paying for the service.
The headline figures for the trial as a whole remain resolutely dismal:
|Whole Trial – All bets placed at Betfair SP||Complete trial|
|%age bank Growth||-69.52%|
|Wins(races w/ profit)||24|
I usually include the full results for the latest month within my progress reports. But, in this case, I can’t really see the point.
Any chance that the Professor’s Formula might finish in the black seems to have disappeared long since.
You can review the full results log, if you must, by clicking here.
As for me: well, I’ll be back when I get to the 150 bet mark – or when my bank balance is wiped out, whichever happens first.
And if for some mysterious reason, you’d still like to find out more about this product, you can do so here.