July 23, 2015

Little Acorns Review

Lay Back & Get Rich betting system review

Little Acorns

Amazingly, Little Acorns won the “Best Horse Racing System” Betting Oscar in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 as voted for by readers of Lay Back & Get Rich.

That’s quite some going and if it wasn’t for the extraordinary success of Goal Profits, I imagine that Little Acorns would have won a few more too!

Little Acorns has been reviewed twice and both resulted in a Pass.

The first trial way back in 2012 achieved 46% bank growth over five months. There was no risk to the bank at any time (hence “Little Acorns”) and Roberto, the reviewer, was delighted with the system.

As is often the case, some readers had differing opinions. While many Little Acorns users waxed lyrical about the profits they said they were making, a number of critics rubbished the product on the grounds that any loss recovery strategy must inevitably be doomed to failure.

In addition, Little Acorns was tidied up and relaunched in the summer of 2014 so it wasn’t quite the same product which had been originally tested. A re-trial was in order!

Over the course of five months in 2015, John re-tested Little Acorns and achieved similar results from the first trial at level stakes. The “Revelation Staking Plan” made a larger profit, but with some uncomfortable ups and downs.

Lucy’s conclusion was as follows:

“Little Acorns remains the only product that has ever earned two Passes here at Lay Back And Get Rich. I am more convinced than ever that it deserves all the praise it has received.

“However, the combination of Revelation staking & Little Acorns strikes me as fundamentally flawed. I love the principle behind Revelation – that of attempting to amplify Little Acorns’ basic edge with a degree of managed recovery staking – but it still occasionally leaves you in situations where you find yourself taking unnecessary risks.

“So it’s Little Acorns and level staking for me, all the way. ??”

After two robust trials then, Little Acorns has earned:

  • Passes from 2 different reviewers
  • A recommendation from Lucy
  • 5 Betting Oscar wins

Betting System Oscars 2017 Best Horse Racing System

If that doesn’t convince you to take a closer look, then I don’t know what will!

Read more about Little Acorns here

If you would like to re-visit both trials, they are copied in full below.

Cheers,
Amy


The Original Review Updates


Lucy’s Re-Trial Introduction: 12th December 2014

Little Acorns

Very few trials on my site have ever generated such strong emotions as the one Roberto carried out in 2012 on Little Acorns.

So… is all this controversy the reason why we’re going to re-test it?

Well yes, it’s one of the reasons.

However, there are also a couple more.

Firstly, Little Acorns was tidied up and relaunched in the summer of 2014. So you could argue that the product we tested isn’t quite the one that’s now for sale.

And secondly, system creator Andrew David has just come up with a potentially very appealing new staking plan.

In fact, he’s so excited about the results he’s getting, he’s named it the Revelation Plan!

He points out that with the new approach:

  • The stakes increase slower than with a Fibonacci or Doubling Up sequence.
  • A fixed amount of profit can be set for every winning bet.
  • The bank grinds up steadily.
  • It is fairly easy to follow.

Having read it, I’m not quite convinced about the final point, but then Andrew does have a further card up his sleeve.

The Revelation Plan comes with access to a passworded online calculator that works the stakes out for you.

It’s likely to be an extra-cost item — as I understand it, around £37 on a one-off basis — but in my view, anyone getting involved with Revelation will probably be interested in the calculator.

It’s all very intriguing… and clearly suggests that a re-trial is in order.

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

So… who’s going to do it and how?

Well, first and foremost, I intend to concentrate on the new Revelation Staking Plan.

It’s just too good a name to ignore. 😉

And secondly, in the interests of impartiality, I’m asking a brand new tester – and brand new LA user – John to lead the trial.

John is already sifting through the manual and plans to make a start over the next couple of days.

As usual, we’re aiming at 200 bets, which could take us a few months.

But hopefully we will start to build up a picture of the risk/reward profile long before the end.

John will be back around 12th January 2015 with his first report.

Lucy


Update: 19th January 2015

Little Acorns

Hello, Johnny here with my very first report for Lay Back And Get Rich on the opening month of our trial of Andrew David’s Little Acorns.

It was originally trialled for Lucy by Roberto back in 2012 and awarded a place in the Passed folder.

This proved rather controversial and debate has raged ever since. It was because of this, together with the fact that Little Acorns was relaunched in the summer of 2014, that Lucy decided the service should be re-trialled.

As I’m new to both Little Acorns and trialling generally, I decided to use minimum Betfair stakes until I’m familiar with the product and am happy that things are progressing well.

So, how did I get on in the first month?

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

Well, I’m 5 points up after 15 bets, so I’m pretty happy. 🙂

I’ve concentrated on the new Revelation staking plan, but progress has been hampered to date, as I have only found a small number of selections that meet the required criteria.

Christmas, New Year and a spell of bad weather didn’t help the selection process.

Also, with the National Hunt in full swing, I do wonder if the odds are greater than they would be on the flat.

The method I use to collate the day’s selections is as follows:

  • Early each morning, I look through all the cards on Betfair to see if any horses are within the price parameters and record those that are.
  • If any are just outside the required odds, I take a note and return to them later, to see if they have fallen into line.
  • During racing, I try to keep tabs on the current prices and monitor accordingly.
  • If, due to work commitments I miss any, I then rely on Timeform for the results in the evening.

The full results for the month are as follows:

Date Selection Price Position Stake Winnings
15/12/2014 No Bet
16/12/2014 Shackled At Dawn 1.9 1st £2.00 -1.8
17/12/2014 No Bet
18/12/2014 No Bet
19/12/2014 No Bet
20/12/2014 Percy Alleline 1.68 2nd £4.00 3.8
21/12/2014 No Bet
22/12/2014 No Bet
26/12/2014 No Bet
27/12/2014 No Bet
28/12/2014 No Bet
29/12/2014 No Bet
30/12/2014 Sharana 1.94 2nd £2.00 1.9
31/12/2014 No Bet
01/01/2015 No Bet
02/01/2015 Foryoureyesonly 0.97 1st £2.00 -1.8
03/01/2015 Lami Serge 1.52 1st £4.00 -2.08
04/01/2015 Pain Au Chocolate 1.9 1st £4.29 -3.86
05/01/2015 Rouquine Sauvage 1.96 6th £6.46 6.14
06/01/2015 Relic Rock 1.87 3rd £2.00 1.9
07/01/2015 Deinonychus 1.75 3rd £2.00 1.9
08/01/2015 No Bet
09/01/2015 Highland Retreat 1.93 1st £2.00 -1.86
10/01/2015 No Bet
11/01/2015 Superkid 1.93 3rd £4.10 3.92
12/01/2015 Bravo Riquet 1.92 1st £2.00 -1.84
13/01/2015 No Bet
14/01/2015 No Bet
15/01/2015 Big Water 1.61 1st £4.08 -2.48
16/01/2015 Solar Deity 1.53 2nd £4.76 4.52
17/01/2015 Close Touch 2 4th £2.00 1.9
18/01/2015 No Bet
Profit £10.26
No. of bets 15
Winning bets 8
Strike rate 53%

Summary

I’m a bit disappointed by the small number of horses that meet the selection criteria.

At this rate it will take me over a year to reach the 200 bet trial target.

On the other hand, if I make 5 points’ profit every month, I’ll end up with a very healthy bank balance indeed.

So, maybe having a slow burner for my first trial will be no bad thing in the long run.

We’ll have to wait and see.

I’ll be back around the 19th February with my second report.

Johnny


Update: 3rd March 2015

Little Acorns

Hello, Johnny here again with the second report on our re-trial of Andrew David’s Little Acorns.

As Lucy explained in her introduction, she took the opportunity to re-trial this service following its 2014 re-launch, because Roberto’s original decision to place it in the Passed folder following his 2012 trial had proved so contentious.

The argument discussion has been ongoing ever since his trial conclusion was published.

So, I feel like many eyes are upon me as I undertake my first ever trial!

I got off to a promising start, finishing month 1 with a £10.26 profit, but had been a little disappointed that just 15 horses had met the selection criteria.

So, has there been an increase in the number of selections this time?

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

Indeed there has! I’ve placed 49 bets this month and made a further £30.26 profit.:)

As I’m using Betfair minimum stakes, this means that overall I’m 20.3 points up after 64 bets.

Not bad!

I’ve continued to concentrate on the new Revelation staking plan and the strike rate is identical to last month.

The full results for the period are as follows:

Date Selection Price Position Stake Winnings
19/01/2015 No Bet        
20/01/2015 No Bet        
21/01/2015 No Bet        
22/01/2015 It Must Be Faith 1.93 2nd 2 1.9
23/01/2015 Fine Rightly 1.81 1st 2 -1.5
24/01/2015 Blakion 2 2nd 3.37 3.2
25/01/2015 No Bet        
26/01/2025 Apparatchika 1.98 1st 2 -1.96
26/01/2015 Monein 1.92 1st 2 -1.8
27/01/2015 Lac Lemon 2 4th 4 3.8
28/01/2015 Stonecutter 1.75 1st 2 -1.5
28/01/2015 Greatest Journey 1.81 1st 3.37 -2.73
29/01/2015 No Bet        
30/01/2015 Ambler Gambler 1.77 7th 3.5 3.33
31/01/2015 May Hey 1.74 2nd 2 1.9
01/02/2015 El namoose 1.84 4th 2 1.9
02/02/2015 Don’t Be 1.96 1st 2 -1.92
03/02/2015 No Bet        
04/02/2015 No Bet        
05/02/2015 West Wizard 1.89 2nd 2.23 2.12
06/02/2015 Josses Hill 1.54 2nd 2 1.9
06/02/2015 Nutcracker Prince 1.96 1st 2 -1.92
06/02/2015 Mendip Express 1.81 2nd 2 1.9
07/02/2015 Soft Love 1.8 3rd 2 1.9
07/02/2015 Sire De Grugy 1.91 UR 2 1.9
08/02/2015 Emerging Talent 1.86 2nd 2 1.9
08/02/2015 Fingal Bay 1.95 3rd 2 1.9
09/02/2015 Wnter Queen 1.94 2nd 2 1.9
10/02/2015 No Bet        
11/02/2015 Draco’s Code 1.95 2nd 2 1.9
12/02/2015 The Yank 1.88 1st 2 -1.76
13/02/2015 Vosne Ronanee 1.79 1st 2.06 -1.62
14/02/2015 Virak 1.57 3rd 3.77 3.58
14/02/2015 Pathway to Honour 1.92 1st 2 -1.84
14/02/2015 Otogo Trial 1.72 3rd 2.15 2.04
15/02/2015 Aigle De La See 1.5 1st 2 -1
15/02/2015 Universal Soldier 1.71 2nd 2.15 2.04
15/02/2015 Jaunty Inflight 1.87 1st 2 -1.74
16/02/2015 Borus Brook 1.73 1st 2.04 -1.48
16/02/2015 Catching Time 1.79 1st 3.06 -2.41
17/02/2015 No Bet        
18/02/2015 Tarooq 1.76 1st 6.14 -4.05
18/02/2015 Paint the Clouds 1.65 1st 10.4 -6.76
18/02/2015 Festive Fare 1.86 1st 17.52 -15.06
19/02/2015 No Bet        
20/02/2015 No Bet        
21/02/2015 No Bet        
22/02/2015 Russborough 1.97 6th 33.37 31.68
22/02/2015 Midnight Silver 1.84 1st 2 -1.68
23/02/2015 Silsol 1.5 2nd 2 1.9
23/02/2015 Prairie Town 1.98 1st 2 -1.96
23/02/2015 Creswell Bridge 1.79 1st 4.04 -3.15
23/02/2015 Dream Child 1.87 2nd 7.36 6.99
24/02/2015 Less Time 1.9 3rd 2 1.9
24/02/2015 Puffin Billy 1.52 1st 2 -1.04
24/02/2015 Saint Lucy 1.69 3rd 2 1.9
25/02/2015 Big Fella Thanks 1.69 1st 2 -0.88
25/02/2015 Ryhthm Star 1.6 2nd 2 1.9
26/02/2015 No Bet        
27/02/2015 Sebastian Beach 1.66 6th 2 1.9
28/02/2015 Cardinal Walter 1.53 1st 2 -1.06
28/02/2015 Gold Trial 1.98 2nd 2 1.9
           
      Overall This Time  
    profit 40.52 30.26  
    no. of bets 64 49  
    winning bets 34 26  
    strike rate 53% 53%  

You can download the results log for the complete trial so far here.

Summary

I’m feeling much happier than I was last month.

Based on the small number of selections then, I was worried the trial was going to take me over a year, but just one month on, I’m now almost a third of the way to my 200 bet target!

The only thing I don’t like is keeping tabs on the runners and prices in real time. I find it a bit of a nightmare to be honest.

But, hopefully, my confidence will grow as the trial progresses.

I’ll be back at the end of March with my next report.

Johnny


Update: 29th March 2015

Little Acorns

Holidays do have an awkward way of getting in the way of betting!

Johnny, who is (re-)testing Little Acorns for us, has just disappeared on a week-long break.

And likewise I too, today, am about to hop on a plane to (hopefully) sunny Cyprus for a few days of warmth.

But, between us, we have quickly cobbled together carefully composed the latest report on the Little Acorns re-trial!

So… has the new Revelation Staking Plan finally revealed why it’s supposed to be such a revelation!? 🙂

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

By the time Johnny wrote his last report, the emerging view was of a service that was making money, but taking quite a few chances doing so.

Specifically, the new (supposedly lower-risk) Revelation Plan was proving to be a bit underwhelming, with liabilities appearing to grow an alarming rate.

Were we perhaps not following the new Plan correctly?

There followed a protracted series of emails between supplier and triallist to try to get to the bottom of the problem, and indeed, it transpires that we haven’t been staking correctly.

Johnny therefore decided to change his approach for all future bets, but not re-calculate all stakes back to the start of our trial.

At this point therefore, your patience is requested, dear reader, as there now follows the complete test result set for the trial, using the correct version of the Revelation Staking Plan for month #3…..

date selection price position stake winnings
15/12/2014 No Bet
16/12/2014 Shackled At Dawn 1.9 1st £2.00 -1.8
17/12/2014 No Bet
18/12/2014 No Bet
19/12/2014 No Bet
20/12/2014 Percy Alleline 1.68 2nd £4.00 3.8
21/12/2014 No Bet
22/12/2014 No Bet
26/12/2014 No Bet
27/12/2014 No Bet
28/12/2014 No Bet
29/12/2014 No Bet
30/12/2014 Sharana 1.94 2nd £2.00 1.9
31/12/2014 No Bet
01/01/2015 No Bet
02/01/2015 Foryoureyesonly 0.97 1st £2.00 -1.8
03/01/2015 Lami Serge 1.52 1st £4.00 -2.08
04/01/2015 Pain Au Chocolate 1.9 1st £4.29 -3.86
05/01/2015 Rouquine Sauvage 1.96 6th £6.46 6.14
06/01/2015 Relic Rock 1.87 3rd £2.00 1.9
07/01/2015 Deinonychus 1.75 3rd £2.00 1.9
08/01/2015 No Bet
09/01/2015 Highland Retreat 1.93 1st £2.00 -1.86
10/01/2015 No Bet
11/01/2015 Superkid 1.93 3rd £4.10 3.92
12/01/2015 Bravo Riquet 1.92 1st £2.00 -1.84
13/01/2015 No Bet
14/01/2015 No Bet
15/01/2015 Big Water 1.61 1st £4.08 -2.48
16/01/2015 Solar Deity 1.53 2nd £4.76 4.52
17/01/2015 Close Touch 2 4th £2.00 1.9
18/01/2015 No Bet
19/01/2015 No Bet
20/01/2015 No Bet
21/01/2015 No Bet
22/01/2015 It Must Be Faith 1.93 2nd 2 1.9
23/01/2015 Fine Rightly 1.81 1st 2 -1.5
24/01/2015 Blakion 2 2nd 3.37 3.2
25/01/2015 No Bet
26/01/2025 Apparatchika 1.98 1st 2 -1.96
26/01/2015 Monein 1.92 1st 2 -1.8
27/01/2015 Lac Lemon 2 4th 4 3.8
28/01/2015 Stonecutter 1.75 1st 2 -1.5
28/01/2015 Greatest Journey 1.81 1st 3.37 -2.73
29/01/2015 No Bet
30/01/2015 Ambler Gambler 1.77 7th 3.5 3.33
31/01/2015 May Hey 1.74 2nd 2 1.9
01/02/2015 El namoose 1.84 4th 2 1.9
02/02/2015 Don’t Be 1.96 1st 2 -1.92
03/02/2015 No Bet
04/02/2015 No Bet
05/02/2015 West Wizard 1.89 2nd 2.23 2.12
06/02/2015 Josses Hill 1.54 2nd 2 1.9
06/02/2015 Nutcracker Prince 1.96 1st 2 -1.92
06/02/2015 Mendip Express 1.81 2nd 2 1.9
07/02/2015 Soft Love 1.8 3rd 2 1.9
07/02/2015 Sire De Grugy 1.91 UR 2 1.9
08/02/2015 Emerging Talent 1.86 2nd 2 1.9
08/02/2015 Fingal Bay 1.95 3rd 2 1.9
09/02/2015 Wnter Queen 1.94 2nd 2 1.9
10-Feb No Bet
11/02/2015 Draco’s Code 1.95 2nd 2 1.9
12/02/2015 The Yank 1.88 1st 2 -1.76
13/02/2015 Vosne Ronanee 1.79 1st 2.06 -1.62
14/02/2015 Virak 1.57 3rd 3.77 3.58
14/02/2015 Pathway to Honour 1.92 1st 2 -1.84
14/02/2015 Otogo Trial 1.72 3rd 2.15 2.04
15/02/2015 Aigle De La See 1.5 1st 2 -1
15/02/2015 Universal Soldier 1.71 2nd 2.15 2.04
15/02/2015 Jaunty Inflight 1.87 1st 2 -1.74
16/02/2015 Borus Brook 1.73 1st 2.04 -1.48
16/02/2015 Catching Time 1.79 1st 3.06 -2.41
17/02/2015 No Bet
18/02/2015 Tarooq 1.76 1st 6.14 -4.05
18/02/2015 Paint the Clouds 1.65 1st 10.4 -6.76
18/02/2015 Festive Fare 1.86 1st 17.52 -15.06
19/02/2015 No Bet
20/02/2015 No Bet
21/02/2015 No Bet
22/02/2015 Russborough 1.97 6th 33.37 31.68
22/02/2015 Midnight Silver 1.84 1st 2 -1.68
23/02/2015 Silsol 1.5 2nd 2 1.9
23/02/2015 Prairie Town 1.98 1st 2 -1.96
23/02/2015 Creswell Bridge 1.79 1st 4.04 -3.15
23/02/2015 Dream Child 1.87 2nd 7.36 6.99
24/02/2015 Less Time 1.9 3rd 2 1.9
24/02/2015 Puffin Billy 1.52 1st 2 -1.04
24/02/2015 Saint Lucy 1.69 3rd 2 1.9
25/02/2015 Big Fella Thanks 1.69 1st 2 -0.88
25/02/2015 Ryhthm Star 1.6 2nd 2 1.9
26/02/2015 No Bet
27/02/2015 Sebastian Beach 1.66 6th 2 1.9
28/02/2015 Cardinal Walter 1.53 1st 2 -1.06
28/02/2015 Gold Trial 1.98 2nd 2 1.9
01/03/2015 Astigos 1.97 2nd 2 1.9
02/03/2015 Nomdic Storm 1.77 1st 2 -1.54
03/03/2015 Toby Leorone 1.55 2nd 2.32 2.2
03/03/2015 Court Dismissed 1.98 2nd 2 1.9
04/03/2015 Lords Navits 1.99 3rd 2 1.9
04/03/2015 Molases 1.98 3rd 2 1.9
05/03/2015 Renounces 1.76 2nd 2 1.9
05/03/2015 Emirates Skycargo 1.51 1st 2 -1.02
05/03/2015 Martiniquaise 1.78 1st 2 -1.56
06/03/2015 No Bet
07/03/2015 No Bet
08/03/2015 No Bet
09/03/2015 What a Scorcher 1.93 2nd 2.93 2.78
09/03/2015 John Montash 1.88 2nd 2 1.9
10/03/2015 Faugheen 1.91 1st 2 -1.82
10/03/2015 Smidgen 1.81 7th 2.22 2.11
11/03/2015 The Bosses Dream 1.97 2nd 2 1.9
11/03/2015 Katie Gale 1.59 1st 2 -1.18
11/03/2015 Spowarticus 1.86 1st 2 -1.72
11/03/2015 Aledaid 1.53 1st 3.26 -1.72
12/03/2015 Cash and Go 1.63 1st 3.26 -2.05
13/03/2015 Guiding George 1.86 2 3.61 3.43
13/03/2015 Revolutionist 1.74 1st 3.83 -2.83
14/03/2015 New March 1.86 1st 5 4.75
14/03/2015 Gilnockie 1.94 PU 2.02 1.92
15/03/2015 No Bet
16/03/2015 Ventrra Castle 1.73 3rd 2 1.9
17/03/2015 No Bet
18/03/2015 Knockgraffon 1.8 2nd 2 1.9
19/03/2015 Yul Finegold 1.99 2nd 2 1.9
20/03/2015 Jilanar 1.73 3rd 2 1.9
21/03/2015 Scorpiancer 1.79 3rd 2 1.9
22/03/2015 Southfield Vic 1.65 1st 2 -1.3
23/03/2015 Mister Grez 1.86 1st 2 -1.72
24/03/2015 Nerismo 1.87 1st 3.39 -2.94
25/03/2015 SevenNationArmy 1.52 2nd 4.67 4.44
25/03/2015 Callac 1.93 4th 2.02 1.92
26/03/2015 No Bet
Overall This Time
profit 65.47 24.95
no. of bets 96 32
winning bets 54 20
strike rate 56% 63%

 

Summary

It’s pleasing to see that the new Staking Plan appears to control liabilities with rather less risk than the older version of Little Acorns.

And the good news is, we’re still making money.

On the other hand, level stakes purists will complain that any form of loss recovery is fraught with risk – and they do have a point.

And of course, there is the additional problem that Revelation is so complicated we have struggled to work it out… so will readers struggle too?

In answering this last point, I think we have pretty much confirmed that anybody choosing to adopt the new Plan needs really to subscribe to the online Staking Calculator, as it works out the right numbers for you, and is available at a one-off fee.

And it’s also good to be able to report that we have received excellent support from Little Acorns’ maths genius.

Beyond all that… well, we’ve a way to go yet but are making money, and that, just today, is enough for me, as I’m about to board my plane. 🙂

Johnny and/or I will be back in late April with our next report.

In the meantime, you can read more about Little Acorns here.

Lucy


Update: 2nd May 2015

Little Acorns

You never quite know which direction a new trial will take.

Sometimes they run smoothly straight from the beginning, but, I have to say, it’s pretty rare.

Usually, there’s some glitch to sort out: software that won’t install right, a PDF that won’t download, or, as in the case of this trial, a staking plan that just wouldn’t make sense.

The Revelation Staking Plan from Andrew David was billed as an important change to his Little Acorns system. Specifically, it was supposed to control losses in such a way that scary drawdowns should become a thing of the past. Or, at least, a relative rarity.

However, we spent two months failing to get our sums right!  

Then, suddenly, in month #3, we cracked it.

And true to form, our bank balance started to grow in a much more linear fashion.

Was it a coincidence?

Or does Revelation really make life with Little Acorns a far more pleasant experience?

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

I’m pleased to be able to report that we’ve had another month of steady capital growth.

We’ve added a shade over 17 points to our bank balance in the month-and-a-little-bit since my last report.

Overall This Time
profit 82.4 17.02
no. of bets 145 49
winning bets 77 23
strike rate 53% 47%

 
This has all been achieved in a fuss-free way, in spite of the fact we had a run of five straight losing bets (i.e. five horses winning in a row).

The complete results log for the period is as follows.

date selection price position stake winnings balance
          b/fwd 65.38
27/03/2015 Clarentine 1.93 2nd 2 1.9 67.28
28/03/2015 Little Jon 1.62 1st 2 -1.62 65.66
28/03/2015 Gold Will 1.84 3rd 2.32 2.2 67.86
30/03/2015 The Eaglehasland’ 1.94 1st 2 -1.88 65.98
31/03/2015 Southfield Royale 1.67 1st 2.19 -1.46 64.52
31/03/2015 Making a State’ 1.74 1st 3.73 -2.76 61.76
31/03/2015 Ultimatum Du Roy 1.92 2nd 4.65 4.42 66.18
01/04/2015 Jimmy the Jetpla’ 1.99 1st 2.19 -2.16 64.02
03/04/2015 First Bombard’ 1.99 2nd 2.48 2.36 66.38
04/04/2015 No Deal 1.81 3rd 2 1.9 68.28
06/04/2015 Marma’s Boy 1.88 1st 2 -1.76 66.52
06/04/2015 Howslongsafoot 1.93 1st 2.06 -1.91 64.61
06/04/2015 Startetina 1.74 1st 4.07 -3.01 61.6
06/04/2015 Moroman 1.7 1st 5.23 -3.66 57.94
07/04/2015 Thahab 2 1st 5.92 -5.92 52.02
07/04/2015 Secateur 1.95 2nd 8.29 7.88 59.9
07/04/2015 Legends Gate 1.74 3rd 6.07 5.77 65.67
07/04/2015 Watermeet 1.69 1st 3.38 -2.33 63.34
07/04/2015 My Stratergy 1.87 2nd 5.83 5.54 68.88
08/04/2015 Forever Now 2 3rd 2 1.9 70.78
09/04/2015 Marlet 1.73 1st 2 -1.46 69.32
09/04/2015 Varsovian 1.89 1st 2.32 -1.72 67.6
10/04/2015 Justice Good 1.72 5th 3.56 3.38 70.98
10/04/2015 Valliant Nonantis 1.89 3rd 2 1.9 72.88
11/04/2015 Fire and Passoin 1.96 3rd 2 1.9 74.78
11/04/2015 Arzal 1.7 1st 2 -1.7 73.08
12/04/2015 Hassle 1.98 4th 2 1.9 74.98
12/04/2015 Warden Hill 1.52 1st 2 -1.04 73.94
14/04/2015 Sandnow 1.93 1st 2 -1.86 72.08
14/04/2015 Reve De Nuit 1.63 1st 3.26 -2.05 70.03
15/04/2015 Might Bite 1.98 1st 3.46 -3.19 66.84
15/04/2015 Une Ace 2 2nd 4.66 4.43 71.27
17/04/2015 Different Gravey 1.96 1st 4.33 -4.15 67.12
19/04/2015 Shes Da One 1.83 PU 6.54 6.21 73.33
20/04/2015 Captain Hox 1.66 1st 2.37 -1.56 71.77
22/04/2015 Cango 1.92 2nd 4.01 3.81 75.58
23/04/2015 Pumped up Kicks 1.61 1st 2 -1.22 74.36
24/04/2015 Ya Hade Ye Delil 1.98 1st 2 -1.96 72.4
24/04/2015 Commemorative 1.87 4th 3.56 3.38 75.78
25/04/2015 Rambrant Van Rijn 1.68 1st 2 -1.36 74.42
26/04/2015 Wardat Dubai 1.94 3rd 2 1.9 76.32
26/04/2015 Persifage 1.99 5th 2 1.9 78.22
26/04/2015 Nabatean 2 1st 2 -2 76.22
27/04/2015 Wonder Laish 1.78 2nd 2.32 2.2 78.42
28/04/2015 Anwar 1.91 3rd 2 1.9 80.32
29/04/2015 Fallen for a Star 1.56 2nd 2 1.9 82.22
29/04/2015 Sparring 1.98 1st 2 -1.98 80.24
29/04/2015 Exosphere 1.75 1st 2.27 -1.7 78.54
29/04/2015 Imtiyaaz 2 3rd 4.06 3.86 82.40

 
You can download the complete results log for the trial here.

Summary

I said last time that “It’s pleasing to see that the new Staking Plan appears to control liabilities with rather less risk than the older version of Little Acorns”.

And this has very much been the moral of month #4 too, as you can see:

Little Acorns Performance

Little Acorns Performance

We did all right during the first two months of the trial, but did experience one truly scary drawdown. Our balance fell back to just +£0.22 following a sequence of six losing bets. And our final stake at the end of the run was £33.37.

In contrast, the highest bet we’ve had to place since we figured out Revelation has been just £8.29, and that occurred this month following our fifth straight winner.

You can see it on the chart round about day 151 and it barely registers as a blip.

Revelation really is, well, a revelation.

That about wraps things up for this month, except to note that, with effect from 1st May, triallist Johnny will now be switching to a new way of calculating stakes… using advanced Revelation!

System supplier Andrew David tells me that the calculations will be exactly the same as now (and that’s a relief, I can tell you!), however the advanced system does all the hard work for you.

Specifically, it:

  • Takes account of your recent losses
  • Calculates the next stake
  • Records your bets
  • Graphs your results

So hopefully, the trialling process gets a lot simpler from hereon in. 🙂

We’ve got 55 more bets to go to reach our 200 bet target.

I’ll ask Johnny to report back in early June with his next report.

Meanwhile you can find out more about Little Acorns here.

Lucy


Update: 15th June 2015

Little Acorns

It’s now five months since we kicked off our re-trial of Little Acorns. And it’s been fascinating.

However, it’s also been, technically, quite a difficult thing to do. Because the latest version of the product has been something of a moving target.

For the first two months of the trial, we thought we were testing with the new ‘Revelation’ staking plan. But we subsequently found we hadn’t been!

All of which was a little embarrassing really – but hey, we’re all human!

This meant we had been living with some unnecessary risks; so we decided to swap, from the start of month #3, into real “Revelation” mode.

Problem solved, eh?

Or so we thought!!!

(And class, please try to keep up with me at the back…!).

For it turns out we’d really swapped into “High-risk” Revelation mode and that Revelation comes in three different flavours: high, medium and low-risk.

All of which brings me to this month’s report.

Because in month #5, High-Risk Revelation bit back!

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

First things first. The headline stats for the month are a bit grim.

Following a period of steady growth, we hit a really rotten patch, with no fewer than thirteen of our last seventeen bets being losers! (i.e. horses that won).

Overall This Time
profit 30.6 -51.82
no. of bets 197 52
winning bets 101 24
strike rate 51% 46%

A loss of over 50 points cannot be written up positively, even when the betting bank remains in profit to the tune of +30.6 points. 

But I suppose I have to stress, we are still playing with someone else’s money. Just.

If you want to see the fully gory detail for the period, it looks like this.

date selection price position stake winnings profit
b/fwd 82.4
02/05/2015 Telescope 1.65 2nd 2 1.9 84.3
02/05/2015 Spiriting 1.47 3rd 2 1.9 86.2
04/05/2015 Laurium 2 2nd 2 1.9 88.1
04/05/2015 West Wizard 1.74 1st 2 -1.48 86.62
04/05/2015 Deauville Dancer 2 2nd 2 1.9 88.52
05/05/2015 Major Ivan 1.84 2nd 2 1.9 90.42
05/05/2015 Neverownup 1.97 1st 2 -1.94 88.48
06/05/2015 Robbie Rabbit 1.81 1st 2.18 -1.76 86.72
06/05/2015 Pair of Jacks 1.86 1st 2.18 -1.87 84.85
07/05/2015 Vif Argent 1.96 1st 4.13 -4.04 80.81
07/05/2015 Lolli 1.96 3rd 6.32 6 86.81
07/05/2015 Wolf Sward 1.78 1st 4.24 -3.3 83.51
07/05/2015 Narcisst 1.82 2nd 5.37 5.1 88.61
09/05/2015 Benissimo 1.83 1st 2.27 -1.88 86.73
13/05/2015 Gingili 1.62 1st 4.25 -2.63 84.1
13/05/2015 Sharpe Rise 1.88 1st 4.96 -4.36 79.74
13/05/2015 Verygoodverygo’ 1.81 2nd 6.78 6.44 86.18
14/05/2015 La Boheme 2 4th 5.04 4.79 90.97
17/05/2015 San Benedeto 2 1st 2 -2 88.97
17/05/2015 Simply Rouge 1.8 1st 2.32 -1.85 87.12
17/05/2015 Count Montecrist 1.93 2nd 4.26 4.05 91.17
19/05/2015 Major Mac 1.96 2nd 2 1.9 93.07
20/05/2015 In the Rough 1.9 2nd 2 1.9 94.97
20/05/2015 Tajathub 1.95 1st 2 -1.9 93.07
20/05/2015 Bennachie 1.87 2nd 2.14 2.03 95.1
21/05/2015 Kayf Willow 2 1st 2 -2 93.1
22/05/2015 Dream Dreamer 2 6th 2.32 2.2 95.3
22/05/2015 Storm of Swords 2 1st 2 -1.74 93.56
23/05/2015 First Bombard’ 1.96 4th 2 1.9 95.46
23/05/2015 Kyllukey 1.73 3rd 2 1.9 97.36
23/05/2015 Curious Carlos 1.85 1st 2 -1.7 95.66
24/05/2015 Angus Glen 1.79 3rd 2 1.9 97.56
24/05/2015 Scopions Sting 1.92 4th 2 1.9 99.46
25/05/2015 Angus Glen 1.7 2nd 2 1.9 101.36
25/05/2015 Romulus Du Don’ 1.9 2nd 2 1.9 103.26
 25/05/2015 Maleficent Quee’ 2 1st 2 -2 101.26
26/05/2015 Fox Norton 1.8 1st 2.32 -1.85 99.41
28/05/2015 Tanerko Emery 1.9 1st 4.26 -3.83 95.58
29/05/2015 Blossom Time 1.7 1st 6.19 -4.33 91.25
29/05/2015 Current Event 1.9 2nd 6.72 6.38 97.63
01/06/2015 May Queen 1.98 1st 6.35 -5.57 92.06
01/06/2015 Curbyourenthus’ 1.84 1st 8.33 -6.99 85.07
02/06/2015 Teversham 2 2nd 9.67 9.19 94.26
04/06/2015 Risk Adjusted 1.81 1st 10.25 -8.3 85.96
04/06/2015 Justice Belle 1.61 1st 12.98 -8.05 77.91
04/06/2015 Malaf 1.94 1st 12.98 -12.2 65.71
05/06/2015 Ruaraidh Hugh 1.98 1st 17.08 -16.74 48.97
05/06/2015 Little Voice 1.8 2nd 21.86 20.77 69.74
05/06/2015 Ivors Involvement 1.9 4th 19.06 18.11 87.85
06/06/2015 Royal Djanjo 1.58 1st 17.42 -10.1 77.75
06/06/2015 London Prize 2 1st 19.32 -19.32 58.43
06/06/2015 Emperor Sakhee 1.96 1st 29.02 -27.85 30.58

You can download the complete results log for the trial here.

Summary

It’s not quite the end of civilisation as we know it, but equally, a sudden drawdown can still be a pretty sickening experience.

So. At this point, I consulted with the supplier, and asked whether, maybe, we were doing something wrong?

To which the response came: you really shouldn’t be using High-Risk Revelation!

“Noooo…”, I replied, “you are surely not recommending another change of staking plan?!”

“Nope” says he, “Not a change of staking plan, just the same old Revelation with the Risk Setting switched from HIGH to LOW”.

Because apparently, High-Risk Revelation is being phased out.

Primarily because the Low and Medium Risk flavours have been doing very well. So it’s no longer thought necessary to live with the risk of, er, a High Risk. Or something.

It seems this message had been lost in translation somewhere – meaning, I didn’t get the memo!

But this is such a confirmed decision, apparently, that the new whizzy Advanced Revelation calculator doesn’t even have the High-Risk setting built in!

‘Tis a thing of history, gone forever…

So this is what we’re going to do: we will change staking plan with immediate effect, and start using Low-Risk Revelation, in line with, well, pretty much everyone else who uses Revelation at all.

We will then graft the results of the new phase of testing onto the end of the High-Risk results we already have, in precisely the same way that, in month #3, we tacked our Revelation data onto the preceding two months of non-Revelation staking!

Got it!?

Maybe it works better as a graphic?!…

Little Acorns - Staking Plan Changes

Little Acorns – Staking Plan Changes

Which, in practice, also means we’ll have to extend the trial.

For although we’re close to my usual 200 bet target, we’re going to have to continue for at least another month or so, till we’ve got the hang of Low-Risk Revelation, once and finally, and for all time. Amen.

Do wish triallist John and me good luck!

In the meantime, you can find out more about both Little Acorns and the Revelation Staking Plan by clicking here.

Lucy


Conclusion (Part 1): 18th July 2015

Little Acorns

It’s been six long months I started re-trialling Little Acorns.

And it’s been, by turns, both fascinating and complicated.

So I’ll try and simplify matters.

The bottom line, at the end of month #5, was good news for Little Acorns fans and doubts for users of the Revelation staking plan.

Specifically:

  • At level stakes, Little Acorns had repeated its good performance from our original trial and made a shade over 17 points from 197 bets.  The level stakes results log is here and a nice performance graph here.
  • Using the new Revelation Staking Plan however. we’d had a much volatile time of it. We’d actually made 30.6 points but in an extraordinarily uncomfortable fashion. The month #5 report paints the picture in more detail.

So: basic Little Acorns had just effectively delivered its second Pass here at Lay Back. And it had done so at level stakes, which is the ultimate test for a betting system.

But the Revelation Staking Plan, following a dazzling start, was rapidly losing its appeal.

Should I abandon it altogether?

I consulted with the supplier and was told… try Revelation with the Low Risk setting….

So that’s precisely what I asked triallist John to do in month #6…. and this is what happened…

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

It’s been another tough month for the Revelation Staking Plan.

John has used the following conservative settings:

  • A bank of 100 points
  • An initial stake of 0.25 points
  • A Revelation “step” of 0.25
  • Commission of 5%

The step is a Revelation concept that I do not pretend to understand fully but it is a key component of the recovery plan. The important point is that these settings are regarded by the supplier as low risk.

Unfortunately, they weren’t low risk enough.

John has actually backdated his testing of the Low Risk setting to the start of May 2015, and this is what happened:

      Revelation Staking Plan
id date   odds stake profit running balance
bet-1 04/05/2015 2 0.25 0.2375 0.2375
bet-2 04/05/2015 1.7 0.25 -0.175 0.0625
bet-3 04/05/2015 1.9 0.45 0.4275 0.49
bet-4 05/05/2015 1.84 0.25 0.2375 0.7275
bet-5 05/05/2015 1.97 0.25 -0.2425 0.485
bet-6 06/05/2015 1.81 0.52 -0.4212 0.0638
bet-7 07/05/2015 1.86 0.96 -0.8256 -0.7618
bet-8 07/05/2015 1.96 1.39 -1.3344 -2.0962
bet-9 07/05/2015 1.96 1.92 1.824 -0.2722
bet-10 07/05/2015 1.78 1.58 -1.2324 -1.5046
bet-11 07/05/2015 1.82 2 1.9 0.3954
bet-12 08/05/2015 1.82 1.14 1.083 1.4784
bet-13 09/05/2015 1.83 0.25 -0.2075 1.2709
bet-14 14/05/2015 2 0.48 0.456 1.7269
bet-15 14/05/2015 2 0.25 -0.25 1.4769
bet-16 20/05/2015 1.9 0.53 0.5035 1.9804
bet-17 20/05/2015 1.95 0.25 -0.2375 1.7429
bet-18 20/05/2015 1.87 0.52 0.494 2.2369
bet-19 21/05/2015 1.37 0.25 0.2375 2.4744
bet-20 21/05/2015 2 0.25 -0.25 2.2244
bet-21 22/05/2015 1.87 0.53 -0.4611 1.7633
bet-22 23/05/2015 1.84 1.01 -0.8484 0.9149
bet-23 23/05/2015 1.73 1.42 1.349 2.2639
bet-24 24/05/2015 1.85 0.75 -0.6375 1.6264
bet-25 25/05/2015 1.7 1.42 1.349 2.9754
bet-26 26/05/2015 1.9 0.25 0.2375 3.2129
bet-27 26/05/2015 2 0.25 -0.25 2.9629
bet-28 27/05/2015 1.5 0.53 -0.265 2.6979
bet-29 27/05/2015 1.8 0.81 -0.648 2.0499
bet-30 28/05/2015 1.9 1.23 -1.107 0.9429
bet-31 29/05/2015 1.7 1.72 -1.204 -0.2611
bet-32 29/05/2015 1.9 1.81 1.7195 1.4584
bet-33 01/06/2015 1.98 1.21 -1.1858 0.2726
bet-34 01/06/2015 2 1.78 -1.78 -1.5074
bet-35 04/06/2015 1.81 2.4 -1.944 -3.4514
bet-36 04/06/2015 1.94 2.57 -2.4158 -5.8672
bet-37 05/06/2015 1.98 3.07 -3.0086 -8.8758
bet-38 06/06/2015 1.45 3.69 -1.6605 -10.5363
bet-39 06/06/2015 1.96 3.69 -3.5424 -14.0787
bet-40 06/06/2015 1.84 4.25 -3.57 -17.6487
bet-41 07/06/2015 1.91 4.28 -3.8948 -21.5435
bet-42 07/06/2015 1.6 4.64 4.408 -17.1355
bet-43 09/06/2015 1.64 4.71 4.4745 -12.661
bet-44 09/06/2015 1.64 5.16 -3.3024 -15.9634
bet-45 10/06/2015 1.96 5.16 4.902 -11.0614
bet-46 11/06/2015 2 4.99 4.7405 -6.3209
bet-47 11/06/2015 1.98 5.18 -5.0764 -11.3973
bet-48 11/06/2015 1.98 7.36 -7.2128 -18.6101
bet-49 13/06/2015 1.81 9.6 -7.776 -26.3861
bet-50 14/06/2015 1.92 10.2 -9.384 -35.7701
bet-51 14/06/2015 2 11.88 -11.88 -47.6501
bet-52 14/06/2015 1.73 14.52 -10.5996 -58.2497
bet-53 14/06/2015 1.87 14.52 -12.6324 -70.8821
bet-54 16/06/2015 1.74 15.31 14.5445 -56.3376
bet-55 16/06/2015 1.71 14.64 -10.3944 -66.732
bet-56 16/06/2015 1.97 14.64 -14.2008 -80.9328
bet-57 16/06/2015 1.99 17.08 16.226 -64.7068
bet-58 16/06/2015 1.84 14.81 14.0695 -50.6373
bet-59 18/06/2015 1.81 13.97 -11.3157 -61.953
bet-60 20/06/2015 2 14.73 -14.73 -76.683
bet-61 21/06/2015 1.64 18.32 -11.7248 -88.4078
bet-62 22/06/2015 1.89 18.32 17.404 -71.0038
bet-63 23/06/2015 1.95 15.77 -14.9815 -85.9853
bet-64 23/06/2015 1.62 19.2 -11.904 -97.8893
bet-65 25/06/2015 1.92 19.2 18.24 -79.6493
bet-66 25/06/2015 1.78 18.14 -14.1492 -93.7985
bet-67 27/06/2015 2 20.51 19.4845 -74.314
bet-68 27/06/2015 2 20.38 -20.38 -94.694
bet-69 28/06/2015 1.77 29.31 -22.5687 -117.263
bet-70 28/06/2015 2 31.61 30.0295 -87.2332
bet-71 29/06/2015 2 29.91 28.4145 -58.8187
bet-72 30/06/2015 1.94 22.66 21.527 -37.2917
bet-73 30/06/2015 1.6 23.54 -14.124 -51.4157
bet-74 01/07/2015 1.95 26.06 -24.757 -76.1727
bet-75 02/07/2015 1.76 37.26 35.397 -40.7757
bet-76 02/07/2015 1.86 26.28 -22.6008 -63.3765
bet-77 02/07/2015 1.93 35.21 -32.7453 -96.1218
bet-78 02/07/2015 2 45.89 43.5955 -52.5263
bet-79 03/07/2015 1.69 35.97 34.1715 -18.3548
bet-80 03/07/2015 1.74 27.46 -20.3204 -38.6752
bet-81 03/07/2015 1.59 33.99 32.2905 -6.3847
bet-82 03/07/2015 1.97 15.13 14.3735 7.9888
bet-83 03/07/2015 1.83 0.25 0.2375 8.2263
bet-84 03/07/2015 2 0.25 0.2375 8.4638
bet-85 03/07/2015 2 0.25 0.2375 8.7013
bet-86 03/07/2015 1.62 0.25 -0.155 8.5463
bet-87 04/07/2015 1.89 0.43 -0.3827 8.1636
bet-88 07/07/2015 1.92 0.83 -0.7636 7.4
bet-89 08/07/2015 1.9 1.23 1.1685 8.5685
bet-90 11/07/2015 2 0.66 -0.66 7.9085
bet-91 12/07/2015 2 1.36 1.292 9.2005
bet-92 13/07/2015 1.96 0.25 0.2375 9.438
bet-93 13/07/2015 1.65 0.25 -0.1625 9.2755
bet-94 13/07/2015 1.76 0.43 -0.3268 8.9487

The final outcome is unquestionably positive. But the key moment in the log occurred on 28th June, when the running balance hit -117 points.

We only had a bank of 100 points!

We therefore have a bank bust which earns the Revelation Staking Plan an automatic fail – at least, when it is combined with Little Acorns.

The performance chart is an eye-opener.

Little Acorns performance with Revelation

Little Acorns Performance with Revelation

Level Stakes betting is a completely different story.

The month 5 results log at level stakes that I published in June runs up to 06-Jun-2015.

We therefore only have to add the bets from 7th June onwards to the previous 197 to get a complete level stakes results set.

The additional bets were all placed at 1 point stakes:

id date odds profit  running balance
bet-41 07/06/2015 1.91 -0.91 -0.91
bet-42 07/06/2015 1.6 0.95 0.04
bet-43 09/06/2015 1.64 0.95 0.99
bet-44 09/06/2015 1.64 -0.64 0.35
bet-45 10/06/2015 1.96 0.95 1.3
bet-46 11/06/2015 2 0.95 2.25
bet-47 11/06/2015 1.98 -0.98 1.27
bet-48 11/06/2015 1.98 -0.98 0.29
bet-49 13/06/2015 1.81 -0.81 -0.52
bet-50 14/06/2015 1.92 -0.92 -1.44
bet-51 14/06/2015 2 -1 -2.44
bet-52 14/06/2015 1.73 -0.73 -3.17
bet-53 14/06/2015 1.87 -0.87 -4.04
bet-54 16/06/2015 1.74 0.95 -3.09
bet-55 16/06/2015 1.71 -0.71 -3.8
bet-56 16/06/2015 1.97 -0.97 -4.77
bet-57 16/06/2015 1.99 0.95 -3.82
bet-58 16/06/2015 1.84 0.95 -2.87
bet-59 18/06/2015 1.81 -0.81 -3.68
bet-60 20/06/2015 2 -1 -4.68
bet-61 21/06/2015 1.64 -0.64 -5.32
bet-62 22/06/2015 1.89 0.95 -4.37
bet-63 23/06/2015 1.95 -0.95 -5.32
bet-64 23/06/2015 1.62 -0.62 -5.94
bet-65 25/06/2015 1.92 0.95 -4.99
bet-66 25/06/2015 1.78 -0.78 -5.77
bet-67 27/06/2015 2 0.95 -4.82
bet-68 27/06/2015 2 -1 -5.82
bet-69 28/06/2015 1.77 -0.77 -6.59
bet-70 28/06/2015 2 0.95 -5.64
bet-71 29/06/2015 2 0.95 -4.69
bet-72 30/06/2015 1.94 0.95 -3.74
bet-73 30/06/2015 1.6 -0.6 -4.34
bet-74 01/07/2015 1.95 -0.95 -5.29
bet-75 02/07/2015 1.76 0.95 -4.34
bet-76 02/07/2015 1.86 -0.86 -5.2
bet-77 02/07/2015 1.93 -0.93 -6.13
bet-78 02/07/2015 2 0.95 -5.18
bet-79 03/07/2015 1.69 0.95 -4.23
bet-80 03/07/2015 1.74 -0.74 -4.97
bet-81 03/07/2015 1.59 0.95 -4.02
bet-82 03/07/2015 1.97 0.95 -3.07
bet-83 03/07/2015 1.83 0.95 -2.12
bet-84 03/07/2015 2 0.95 -1.17
bet-85 03/07/2015 2 0.95 -0.22
bet-86 03/07/2015 1.62 -0.62 -0.84
bet-87 04/07/2015 1.89 -0.89 -1.73
bet-88 07/07/2015 1.92 -0.92 -2.65
bet-89 08/07/2015 1.9 0.95 -1.7
bet-90 11/07/2015 2 -1 -2.7
bet-91 12/07/2015 2 0.95 -1.75
bet-92 13/07/2015 1.96 0.95 -0.8
bet-93 13/07/2015 1.65 -0.65 -1.45
bet-94 13/07/2015 1.76 -0.76 -2.21

A loss of 2.21 points brings our total Level Stakes position for the whole trial to:

  • 251 bets placed at 1 point
  • Profit = +15.19 points – or 2.5 points per month.

This is exactly the kind of modest growth I would expect from Little Acorns Level Staking. For comparison, Roberto made 9 points in 5 months back in 2012.

Summary

Level stakes betting with Little Acorns is a very slow and steady way to make money. Based on our two long trials, it should considerably outperform your bank account and allow your capital to build over the long term, even after allowing for the challenge of 5% commission. In my opinion, it’s a little slow-burning miracle.

This, after all, is the promise implicit in the product’s name. It therefore fully deserves to retain its Pass rating.

The Revelation Staking Plan, on the other hand, has been an unexpected disappointment. For a while, it looked like a profound breakthrough. But it isn’t: at least, not when used with Little Acorns.

Revelation might be better used with Football Bank Builder, Little Acorns’ sister product, and I’d be interested in hearing from anyone who’s combined the two. I have heard, anecdotally, some very promising things but have yet to pair them myself.

None of that should distract from the fact that Little Acorns remains a long-term winner. So I am happy for it to become the first product ever to be passed twice at Lay Back And Get Rich.

You can read more about Little Acorns here.

Lucy


Conclusion (Part 2): 23rd July 2015

Little Acorns

Triallist John has just spent six months, patiently re-testing Little Acorns.

We tried level staking, plus various flavours of Recovery betting, including the now well-known Revelation Staking Plan.

Finally, on 18th July, I published the trial conclusion.

The bottom line was that Little Acorns had become the first ever product to earn two Pass marks at Lay Back And Get Rich, adding its 2015 achievement to Roberto’s success in 2012.

But the combination of Little Acorns and Revelation had, in my view, failed to deliver. Thus I recommended that users stick to level stakes.

And that, I thought, was that.

But I was wrong.

Because one very sharp-eyed reader called Mau had spotted an error in the data!

And Mau’s observation, though it has no bearing on the product’s level stakes Pass mark, has made me re-evaluate the use of the Revelation Plan.

With a deep breath then, here follows my response to Mau’s observations, and a clarification of my position….

Little Acorns

Little Acorns – Great Profit-Builder, Or Loss-Chasing Mistake?

In month #6, John had recast his month #5 bets using different stakes, per the Low-Risk flavour of the Revelation Plan.

Unfortunately however, as Mau subsequently observed, there were differences in the bet data used between the month #5 and #6 reports: specifically, the bets covering the period 4th May to 6th June 2015.

Now minor transcription errors do sometimes happen when testing. It’s just a fact of the triallist’s life.

But – as Mau correctly pointed out – these particular errors meant that the outturn for Revelation should have been quite different.

There are indeed a few discrepancies between John’s month 5 data as reported in the trial conclusion, and the data he’d previously published for May/early June and then plugged into “low-risk” Revelation in month #6.

None of this affects the level stakes out-turn, as the data used for level stakes betting was correct throughout. We are only talking about the combination of Little Acorns and the Revelation Staking Plan.

Re-calculating Low-Risk Revelation!

Correcting for John’s data errors (which I’ve now done – gosh that was fun!) changes the outturn significantly.

The corrected results set, with Low-Risk Revelation, is as follows.

Points 100        
Commission 5%        
1 point 0.25        
Step 0.25        
           
Date Odds Pos Stake Result  Balance 
04/05/2015 2 2nd 0.25 0.24  £              0.24
04/05/2015 1.74 1st 0.25 -0.19  £              0.05
04/05/2015 2 2nd 0.46 0.44  £              0.49
05/05/2015 1.84 2nd 0.25 0.24  £              0.73
05/05/2015 1.97 1st 0.25 -0.24  £              0.49
06/05/2015 1.81 1st 0.52 -0.42  £              0.07
06/05/2015 1.86 1st 0.96 -0.83 -£             0.76
07/05/2015 1.96 1st 1.39 -1.33 -£             2.09
07/05/2015 1.96 3rd 1.92 1.82 -£             0.27
07/05/2015 1.78 1st 1.58 -1.23 -£             1.50
07/05/2015 1.82 2nd 2 1.9  £              0.40
09/05/2015 1.83 1st 1.14 -0.95 -£             0.55
13/05/2015 1.62 1st 2.14 -1.33 -£             1.88
13/05/2015 1.88 1st 2.54 -2.24 -£             4.12
13/05/2015 1.81 2nd 3.49 3.32 -£             0.80
14/05/2015 2 4th 2.66 2.53  £              1.73
17/05/2015 2 1st 0.25 -0.25  £              1.48
17/05/2015 1.8 1st 0.53 -0.42  £              1.06
17/05/2015 1.93 2nd 0.97 0.92  £              1.98
19/05/2015 1.96 2nd 0.25 0.24  £              2.22
20/05/2015 1.9 2nd 0.25 0.24  £              2.46
20/05/2015 1.95 1st 0.25 -0.24  £              2.22
20/05/2015 1.87 2nd 0.52 0.49  £              2.71
21/05/2015 2 1st 0.25 -0.25  £              2.46
22/05/2015 2 6th 0.53 0.5  £              2.96
22/05/2015 2 1st 0.25 -0.25  £              2.71
23/05/2015 1.96 4th 0.53 0.5  £              3.21
23/05/2015 1.73 3rd 0.25 0.24  £              3.45
23/05/2015 1.85 1st 0.25 -0.21  £              3.24
24/05/2015 1.79 3rd 0.48 0.46  £              3.70
24/05/2015 1.92 4th 0.25 0.24  £              3.94
25/05/2015 1.7 2nd 0.25 0.24  £              4.18
25/05/2015 1.9 2nd 0.25 0.24  £              4.42
25/05/2015 2 1st 0.25 -0.25  £              4.17
26/05/2015 1.8 1st 0.53 -0.42  £              3.75
28/05/2015 1.9 1st 0.97 -0.87  £              2.88
29/05/2015 1.7 1st 1.44 -1.01  £              1.87
29/05/2015 1.9 2nd 1.59 1.51  £              3.38
01/06/2015 1.98 1st 1.62 -1.59  £              1.79
01/06/2015 1.84 1st 2.38 -2 -£             0.21
02/06/2015 2 2nd 2.81 2.67  £              2.46
04/06/2015 1.81 1st 2.85 -2.31  £              0.15
04/06/2015 1.61 1st 3.61 -2.2 -£             2.05
04/06/2015 1.94 1st 3.61 -3.39 -£             5.44
05/06/2015 1.98 1st 4.75 -4.66 -£           10.10
05/06/2015 1.8 2nd 6.08 5.78 -£             4.32
05/06/2015 1.9 4th 5.51 5.23  £              0.91
06/06/2015 1.58 1st 5.01 -2.91 -£             2.00
06/06/2015 2 1st 5.64 -5.64 -£             7.64
06/06/2015 1.96 1st 8.52 -8.18 -£           15.82
07/06/2015 1.91 1st 11.19 -10.18 -£           26.00
07/06/2015 1.6 Lost 13.29 12.63 -£           13.37
09/06/2015 1.64 Lost 11.31 10.74 -£             2.63
09/06/2015 1.64 1st 9.26 -5.93 -£             8.56
10/06/2015 1.96 Lost 9.57 9.09  £              0.53
11/06/2015 2 Lost 6.2 5.89  £              6.42
11/06/2015 1.98 1st 0.25 -0.25  £              6.17
11/06/2015 1.98 1st 0.53 -0.52  £              5.65
13/06/2015 1.81 1st 1.07 -0.87  £              4.78
14/06/2015 1.92 1st 1.44 -1.32  £              3.46
14/06/2015 2 1st 1.92 -1.92  £              1.54
14/06/2015 1.73 1st 2.55 -1.86 -£             0.32
14/06/2015 1.87 1st 2.55 -2.22 -£             2.54
16/06/2015 1.74 Lost 2.86 2.72  £              0.18
16/06/2015 1.71 1st 2.83 -2.01 -£             1.83
16/06/2015 1.97 1st 2.93 -2.84 -£             4.67
16/06/2015 1.99 Lost 3.8 3.61 -£             1.06
16/06/2015 1.84 Lost 3.29 3.13  £              2.07
18/06/2015 1.81 1st 3.67 -2.97 -£             0.90
20/06/2015 2 1st 4.78 -4.78 -£             5.68
21/06/2015 1.64 1st 6.68 -4.28 -£             9.96
22/06/2015 1.89 Lost 6.68 6.35 -£             3.61
23/06/2015 1.95 1st 6.73 -6.39 -£           10.00
23/06/2015 1.62 1st 8.95 -5.55 -£           15.55
25/06/2015 1.92 Lost 8.95 8.5 -£             7.05
25/06/2015 1.78 1st 8.13 -6.34 -£           13.39
27/06/2015 2 Lost 8.96 8.51 -£             4.88
27/06/2015 2 1st 9.23 -9.23 -£           14.11
28/06/2015 1.77 1st 13.11 -10.09 -£           24.20
28/06/2015 2 Lost 14.01 13.31 -£           10.89
29/06/2015 2 Lost 14.48 13.76  £              2.87
30/06/2015 1.94 Lost 6.11 5.8  £              8.67
30/06/2015 1.6 1st 0.25 -0.15  £              8.52
01/07/2015 1.95 1st 0.42 -0.4  £              8.12
02/07/2015 1.76 Lost 0.84 0.8  £              8.92
02/07/2015 1.86 1st 0.25 -0.22  £              8.70
02/07/2015 1.93 1st 0.49 -0.46  £              8.24
02/07/2015 2 Lost 0.98 0.93  £              9.17
03/07/2015 1.69 Lost 0.25 0.24  £              9.41
03/07/2015 1.74 1st 0.25 -0.18  £              9.23
03/07/2015 1.59 Lost 0.45 0.43  £              9.66
03/07/2015 1.97 Lost 0.25 0.24  £              9.90
03/07/2015 1.83 Lost 0.25 0.24  £           10.14
03/07/2015 2 Lost 0.25 0.24  £           10.38
03/07/2015 2 Lost 0.25 0.24  £           10.62
03/07/2015 1.62 1st 0.25 -0.16  £           10.46
04/07/2015 1.89 1st 0.43 -0.38  £           10.08
07/07/2015 1.92 1st 0.83 -0.76  £              9.32
08/07/2015 1.9 Lost 1.23 1.17  £           10.49
11/07/2015 2 1st 0.66 -0.66  £              9.83
12/07/2015 2 Lost 1.36 1.29  £           11.12
13/07/2015 1.96 Lost 0.25 0.24  £           11.36
13/07/2015 1.65 1st 0.25 -0.16  £           11.20
13/07/2015 1.76 1st 0.43 -0.33  £           10.87

So; it turns out that we did not, as initially reported, blow the 100 point bank after all.  

Instead, we only reached a low point of -26.

Which is a long way from -100 !

By my calculations, we’d still need to have lost the next six bets straight to wipe our bank out.

Though of course, an insidiously long reduction in strike rate would probably have done the trick just as well.

So.. does this change anything?

Well, first of all, I must repeat: it has no impact on the Pass mark awarded to Little Acorns.

The Pass was awarded on the grounds of the product’s level stakes performance and is completely unaffected by this change in results data. The amendment applies only to Revelation staking.

However: this change does suggest that Revelation isn’t quite as risky as I’d first thought.

So I owe the supplier an apology.

I do not wish to misrepresent anybody’s system and the test results published in the month 6 article painted a much gloomier picture than they should have done.

However, having said that, I am stopping short of rehabilitating the Revelation plan when used with Little Acorns.

There are two reasons:

1. The appeal of Revelation, to me, was that it appeared to recover losses gradually, and thus drastically reduce the risk of exponential rises in our staking levels.

But, judging from my amended performance graph, I think it’s fair to say that exponential increases still occur.

Little Acorns - Amended Performance Chart for Revelation Staking

Little Acorns – Amended Performance Chart for Revelation Staking

We achieved a reasonable strike rate of 44.2% and yet still saw stakes grow fifty-seven times from an original bet of £0.25 to a high point of £14.48.

This dramatic increase produced two run-away collapses that seem, to me, as alarming as other staking plans I have criticised in the past.

2. I hadn’t realised before but Revelation can put you into loss recovery mode even when your net bank balance is positive.

For instance, by 10th June, it had recovered a losing position to a net overall balance of £0.53.

But the next stake was still £6.20 – a full twenty-four times bigger than our starting bet had been when the balance had been zero.

Is this desirable – or even sensible?

I fail to understand the logic.

Conclusion

Little Acorns remains the only product that has ever earned two Passes here at Lay Back And Get Rich. I am more convinced than ever that it deserves all the praise it has received.

However, the combination of Revelation staking & Little Acorns strikes me as fundamentally flawed.

I love the principle behind Revelation – that of attempting to amplify Little Acorns’ basic edge with a degree of managed recovery staking – but it still occasionally leaves you in situations where you find yourself taking unnecessary risks.

So it’s Little Acorns and level staking for me, all the way. 🙂

You can read more about Little Acorns here.

Lucy


The Original 2012 Review Updates


Lucy’s Original Introduction: 25th June 2012

I’ve had a look at a few older systems on my site and, although you might hope they would perhaps have stood the test of time, it has to be said that, when reviewed, none of them exactly pulled up any trees.

Well, this time, I’m looking at an oldish product that promises not to pull up a tree, but instead grow one.   Specifically, it’s a laying system called Little Acorns, and it seems to have been around forever.

Little Acorns

Little Acorns

Now I like laying, and even ran quite a successful laying service in 2011. But we haven’t done much laying around here lately, as I have gone crazy for football and tennis trading!

So it’s about time this all changed! I keep banging on about portfolio betting, so adding in a laying system seems a logical step.

And the person who is going to be taking that step is my tester Roberto!

I’ve now read through the manual….  And I have to say – it’s certainly different!

On first reading, I have to admit to slightly mixed feelings about the innovative loss recovery staking plan, but I am reassured (to a certain extent at least) by the author’s apparent awareness of the risks associated with the types of method he is proposing.

Additionally, the sales page for Little Acorns does claim that profits can be made by laying to level stakes, so that is certainly something I will want to explore, alongside a parallel set of results achieved with the system staking plan.

But anyway, that’s enough from me… I will now ask Roberto to introduce himself below, and we can make a start!

Here’s to growing that mighty oak tree. 🙂

Lucy


Update: 25th June 2012

Hello there, my name is Roberto, and Lucy has asked me to carry out a trial of Little Acorns.

So I thought I would start by giving you my first impressions …….

Little Acorns

Little Acorns

The system is simple.   There are  some odd parameters and one filter (plus one optional).   It’s all clearly explained, it’s not time consuming, 15-25 minutes are enough for the selection process, and the liabilities are low, because we are laying odds on favourites.

There are 3 suggested staking plans, 2 of which are more aggressive and the third being very low risk.   I will start the trial with the low risk one, at 20 euros per bet, as it’s particularly suitable for beginners.   The other two may cause some stress if  facing a losing run, this is my only concern about this system.

I will use Bet Angel and its automation tool to place bets without the need to stay in front of my PC.   In the morning, I will make the selection process, adding the potential selections to Bet Angel’s watchlist (the “guardian”)…. and in the afternoon the software will do all the work for me!

Obviously, if you prefer, it can all be done manually also. 🙂

OK I will now start placing bets using the system, and record my progress.

Ciao 🙂

Roberto.


Conclusion: 1st December 2012

Little Acorns

Hello, Lucy here, walking in on the Little Acorns trial at the last minute after Roberto has done all the hard work, including running a 171 bet trial that started way back in late June when the sun was still shining!

However, I assure you I have no intention of taking all the credit! Instead, I just want to express a hearty thanks to Roberto for what has been a terrific trial that has engaged readers of the site, and produced many worthwhile contributions.

Plus, I’m pleased to say, it’s been thoroughly successful too. For Little Acorns has earned one of my (rare) Pass marks!

I asked Roberto to sum up the trial, and he responded by sending me a complete report that I think sums things up beautifully. I therefore reproduce it in its entirety below.

Roberto’s Summary

“OK my final impression of this system is positive because:

1) It gave 9 points profit in 5 months at level stakes with compounding,maybe not so much, but a great performance (46%) if you consider it like a financial investment.

2) The bank has always been in the black.. Obviously it’s because we had a good start, but not only. We had several losing runs of 4-5-6 and once 8 consecutive bets lost, and the bank was never in danger. This is because Little Acorns is a low liability system and because there are winning runs too (6 consecutive winnings the longest).

3) Little Acorns is simple to use and it’s not time consuming.. With the help of a bot and a stats site that i use (not free) my entire process last no more than 2 minutes a day. If you don’t use those resources (bot + stats site) the selection process can be longer, but I don’t think more than 20-25 minutes a day.

4) The system seems to have a low monthly volatility:

  • July +3,5 points
  • August +4,5
  • September -3,8
  • October +0,8
  • November +4.

…which is a big positive from my point of view. Slow steady profits that in the long run, with the help of compounding, can have a great impact on your betting bank

5) The average strike rate is around 51%, greater than it should be if favourites prices are correct

Summary

I did this trial with level stakes with compounding, the author advises also other staking plans, which are more aggressive. Personally I don’t like them,they can be more speculative but with so many losing runs you can sometimes get in trouble, and in very unlucky circumstances you can lose the entire bank, so in my opinion the system is good and probably with some more form research, for those who know how to do it well, can be even more profitable.

Thank you to all readers and everyone took part with his comments,and to Lucy that gave me this opportunity, for me it has been a long but nice and interesting trial!

Roberto.

I have very little to add to this. Little Acorns is a super little product that delivers. I share Roberto’s concerns about some of the staking advice supplied alongside the core product, but the good news is – level staking will get the job done for you. You simply don’t need to take silly risks. Instead, just imitate Roberto. i.e. Review and (if appropriate) increase your stakes at the start of each month. You too could then be achieving hassle-free bank growth of 46% in just over five months.

I have therefore awarded Little Acorns a Pass. We began in mid-summer, and we finish with Christmas approaching. It has come through a robust test and shown itself a worthy addition to any betting portfolio.

You should certainly consider investing in it.

Lucy

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