January 18, 2017

Value Favs Review

Lay Back & Get Rich betting system review

Value betting is an increasingly popular, if notoriously elusive, idea.

The underlying principle sounds somewhat unlikely: in short, a value bet means the market has got it wrong.

You have value when the quoted odds of your selection winning are longer than they ought to be.

Or, put another way, ‘value’ means you’ve bought a low-risk opportunity for a high-risk price.

And of course, even though your value selection may not win, it follows that, if you could uncover good value selections repeatedly, you should end up very wealthy indeed.

That’s the theory anyway.

The tricky bit, of course, is in finding the tipsters who can uncover those opportunities…

Welcome then to my new trial of Value Favs….

This is a service that takes a somewhat counter-intuitive approach.

Because the thing is, favourites aren’t usually held to be a good source of value.

Quite the opposite.

Value punters are usually to be found rummaging around through the long end of the book, trying to unearth a promising long-shot that everybody else has missed.

However, there is a school of thought, with quite a high level of academic backing, that argues that favourites really do offer a degree of value.

Enter: the Favourite/Long-shot Bias.

This old chestnut argues that, for some not fully understood reason, bookmakers would rather give punters value at the short end of the book.

Meaning that long-shots should, as a rule, be priced even longer than they already are. And that favourites may indeed often present reasonable value.

This seems counter-intuitive precisely because bookies make most of their money from laying favourites. Which surely suggests that short-priced selections represent rotten value!?

I suspect the resolution is simply that favourites aren’t great value, as a rule, but they’re not too bad. Whereas long shots are, on average, far worse.

In any event, this line of reasoning would suggest that backing carefully selected, short-priced tips might just work.

And favourites specialist Value Favs believes in taking precisely this approach.

One of the nice side benefits of doing so is a decent strike rate: claimed to be around 48%, which admittedly does hold appeal.

The service focusses on horse racing only and claims some remarkably steady profits.

Just look at this claimed profits graph:

Value Favs - Claimed Profits Graph

Value Favs – Claimed Profits Graph

I have no idea how many bets were supposed to have been used to produce that deeply appealing outcome, but we shall not concern ourselves with worrying about it.

Instead, we will kick off our own trial. 🙂

Summary

Fresh from his success with Early Odds, regular triallist Martin is going to lead this one.

We will aim for 200 bets as ever and use a 50 point bank.

Here’s hoping the Favourite/Longshot bias holds water – and that our tipster can find those decent value tips for Martin.

I’ll be back with my first report in November.

In the meantime, you can read more about Value Favs here.

Lucy


Update: 15th November 2016

I’ve heard it said that, in stock market circles, everyone likes to think they’re a contrarian investor.

Well, I’m starting to think there may well be an equivalent in the sports betting world where everyone likes to claim they’re a value bettor.

After all, it’s such a seductively appealing idea. Because it suggests you know something the market doesn’t – and of course, we all like to believe that we know what we’re doing. 🙂

Not surprisingly, a whole swathe of betting services has grown up around the notion of value betting – usually with the magic V word as part of their name.

And it is one of these products that we come to today: the novel Value Favs service from Tipster Street.

Now, I use the word ‘novel’ advisedly as value betting services typically concentrate on longshots – trying to unearth contenders that the rest of the market has missed.

This product, however, bucks the trend and looks for favourites whose odds should be even shorter than they actually are.

I can’t think of a single other betting product that aims to do this. Hence my interest.

Well, my triallist Martin is now one month into his testing… so is he making any money yet?

No, sadly, he isn’t.

Fortunately, as Martin explains, he has adopted a very cautious approach that has limited his losses: “Tipster Street recommend a 2 point stake at £25 per point, however I decided on £2.50 per point instead and have done 2 point bets against a starting bank of £250.

“Tipster Street’s figures show the system has made a profit in every month from when they started in December 2015, except for October 2016, so it is just my luck that I started the review in mid-October.

“I’m glad I chose to use £2.50 per point, as if I had used their suggested stake, I would be down by about £500!”

The headline statistics show that we have lost around 20 points in the first month:

 Value Favs – Month 1 ResultsAdvised PricesPrice takenBetfair SP
Profit(£ 41.63)(£ 50.50)(£ 70.55)
   
New Bank£ 208.38£ 199.50£ 179.45
    
%age bank Growth-16.65%-20.20%-28.22%
Wins(races w/ profit)303030
Bets909090
Strike rate(races w/ profit)33.33%33.33%33.33%
ROI-9.25%-11.22%-15.68%

NB Martin emphasizes that the “Price taken” figures more accurately reflect the profitability of the system and should be used in preference to the “Advised Prices”.

There have, however, been some very close-run things.

For instance, a run of five consecutive second places on 9th and 10th November would have turned the monthly loss into a small profit had they won.

So maybe Martin has just been a bit unlucky.

If you’d like to peruse the full results log, you can do so by clicking here.

Summary

It’s always frustrating to kick off a trial that has been apparently performing well and then promptly see its performance nose-dive.

But of course, this sort of thing is precisely the everyday experience of thousands of punters when they buy new systems.

In short, it’s just something we have to accept as a (distinctly unwelcome) part of the betting life.

There are still 110 bets to go before we reach our 200 bet finishing line so there remains plenty of time for a complete recovery.

Let’s hope so anyway.

Martin and I will be back in December with our next report.

Meanwhile, you can find out more about Value Favs here.

Lucy


Update: 15th December 2016

As I pointed out last month, ‘value’ is a fashionable word in the betting world.

It is, however, an extraordinarily difficult thing to prove you have obtained and, even after your bet has won or lost, you will probably never know whether or not you did indeed find it.

However, elusiveness only serves to increase the appeal of the magical V word. And of course, tipsters are only too aware of this, so often include it in both the name and marketing of their products.

All of which broadly explains the allure of the Value Favs service from Tipster Street, which my triallist Martin has now been testing for the last couple of months.

Unfortunately however, month #1 was a damp squib.

So did matters improve in the second period?

Yes, a bit, but by nowhere near enough.

Month #2 was effectively a break-even month, as you can see below.

Martin started out with £250 and is betting at £2 a point:

Value Favs – Month 2 ResultsAdvised PricesPrice takenBetfair SP
Profit£ 2.45£ 2.31(£ 5.27)
   
New Bank£ 208.38£ 199.50£ 179.45
    
%age bank Growth1.18%1.16%-2.94%
Wins(races w/ profit)303030
Bets686868
Strike rate(races w/ profit)44.12%44.12%44.12%
ROI0.71%0.67%-1.53%

If we add these results to those for the previous period, we can see that we are still in arrears overall:

Whole TrialAdvised PricesPrice takenBetfair SP
Profit(£ 39.18)(£ 48.19)(£ 68.89)
Profit (pts)-15.7-19.3-27.6
New Bank£ 210.83£ 201.81£ 181.11
    
%age bank Growth-15.67%-19.28%-27.56%
Wins(races w/ profit)606060
Bets158158158
Strike rate(races w/ profit)37.97%37.97%37.97%
ROI-4.93%-6.06%-8.67%

If you’d like to read the detailed results log, you can do so by clicking here.

Summary

The Value Favs service has to date received generally positive reviews but, on this showing, it’s hard to see why.

A dismal first period has now been followed by a flat second one, leaving Martin just over 40 bets from the end of the trial and looking for a miracle.

The two of us will be back in the New Year to let you know whether or not we get one.

In the meantime, you can read more about Value Favs here.

Lucy


Update: 18th January 2017

As I keep saying, I’m a bit addicted to the notion of ‘finding value’ in horse racing.

It suggests all sorts of appealing things:

…being in the know…

…having the inside track…

…knowing something the market doesn’t….

In short, it means you’re on to something that other people aren’t.

Unsurprisingly, therefore, Value Favs is a service that appealed to me from the start. It takes the concept of value one step further than most by suggesting that you can sometimes find value in favourites.

And, if they’re right, this suggests you wouldn’t have to put up with the value-seeker’s perennial nightmare: long, losing runs.

Well, my triallist Martin has been testing Value Favs for three months now and has just cleared the 200 bet trial finishing line.

So it’s time for the big exposé …. did he manage to find value in short-priced favourites?

Sadly no. We lost money by every measure we used.

This was in spite of the fact that Martin finished with a very positive final month’s testing.

Unfortunately, too much damage had been done in months #1 and #2 so we were unable to climb back into profit by the end of the trial.

The final results summary paints a pretty gloomy picture. Martin used three banks of £250 each and bet at £2.50 a point:

Value Favs – Results Summary – Entire TrialAdvised PricesPrice takenBetfair SP
Profit (£)(£ 18.63)(£ 24.86)(£ 37.10)
Profit (pts)-7.45-9.95-14.84
New Bank£ 231.38£ 225.14£ 212.90
    
%age bank Growth-7.45%-9.95%-14.84%
Wins(races w/ profit)828282
Bets210210210
Strike rate(races w/ profit)39.05%39.05%39.05%
ROI-1.77%-2.37%-3.53%

You can download the complete results log for the trial by clicking here.

Summary

The three months of the trial produced wildly varying outcomes, as you can see:

Value Favs Trial – Monthly OutcomesAdvised PricesPrice takenBetfair SP
Month 1 Profit(£ 41.63)(£ 50.50)(£ 63.62)
Month 2 Profit£ 2.45£ 2.31(£ 5.27)
Month 3 Profit£ 20.55£ 23.33£ 31.79

Martin writes: “I have read some of the Value Favs blurb where they say they have only ever had two losing months, which must have been October and November, so it is just my luck that I started the trial in October….”

So maybe we were just unlucky?

The trouble is, we can make any trial look good if we start deleting losing months, so the results have to stand on their own terms.

And I can find nothing here to stop me awarding a dreaded Failed rating.

We did, after all, lose money overall by all three measures we used, including the tipster’s own prices.

If however, you would still like to find out more about Value Favs, you can do so here.

Lucy

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