Hello everyone, my name is Sean and I have followed Lucy’s site for quite a while now.
So when Lucy asked me if I’d like to pick up the Trading The Horses trial from previous triallist Gail, I was keen to help.
TTH is a product from the Pre-Match Trading stable, so, although this wasn’t the product I originally asked Lucy if I could test(!), I was still expecting something positive.
Gail made a reasonably encouraging, if uncertain start, so I was keen to see if I could make this product work for me.
In particular, I was keen to see if Gail’s comment last time that “I think [TTH] might take quite a long time to master” was fair.
So… did my first attempts at Trading The Horses turn me into a winning trader? Read on to find out…
(However, if you’re completely unfamiliar with TTH, may I suggest you begin by reading Lucy’s opening article on the subject, then maybe have a look at Gail’s first impressions , before returning here for the latest news?)
Despite every trade I have executed being successful, I don’t really feel that confident in my use of the software. Yet.
Partly this may be down to the fact that I’ve been familiarising myself with the product, so have thus far only managed about a dozen or so actual trades.
But another thing I was concerned about is the potential to trade more than one option.
So, if there’s more than one horse in the same race, do I do all of the ones the software flags up per race or do I just pick one and if so which one?!
All this uncertainty may seem a bit strange as my results so far look like a trader’s dream!
|Market||Selection||Bid type||Bet placed||Persistence||Odds req.||Stake(GBP)||Avg. odds matched||Profit/Loss(GBP)|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 15:55 To Be Placed||Not A Bother Boy||Lay||17-Feb-15 15:53||C||2.72||10.36||2.72||10.36|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 15:55 To Be Placed||Not A Bother Boy||Back||17-Feb-15 15:52||C||2.82||10||2.82||-10|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 15:45 To Be Placed||Ibis Du Rheu||Lay||17-Feb-15 15:42||C||2.74||10.21||2.74||10.21|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 15:45 To Be Placed||Ibis Du Rheu||Back||17-Feb-15 15:41||C||2.82||10||2.82||-10|
|GB / Wolv 17th Feb / 15:35 To Be Placed||Greys Angel||Back||17-Feb-15 15:32||C||2.52||9.76||2.52||14.84|
|GB / Wolv 17th Feb / 15:35 To Be Placed||Greys Angel||Lay||17-Feb-15 15:32||C||2.46||10||2.46||-14.6|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 15:25 To Be Placed||Vasco Dycy||Lay||17-Feb-15 15:20||C||2.76||10.34||2.76||10.34|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 15:25 To Be Placed||Vasco Dycy||Back||17-Feb-15 15:19||C||2.86||10||2.86||-10|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 15:10 To Be Placed||Ballydague Lady||Lay||17-Feb-15 15:06||C||2.1||10.28||2.1||10.28|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 15:10 To Be Placed||Ballydague Lady||Back||17-Feb-15 15:06||C||2.16||10||2.16||-10|
|GB / Wolv 17th Feb / 15:00 To Be Placed||Mister Marcasite||Back||17-Feb-15 14:57||C||2.2||9.36||2.2||-9.36|
|GB / Wolv 17th Feb / 15:00 To Be Placed||Mister Marcasite||Lay||17-Feb-15 14:56||C||2.06||10||2.06||10|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 14:50 To Be Placed||Hainan||Back||17-Feb-15 14:48||C||2.1||9.42||2.1||-9.42|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 14:50 To Be Placed||Hainan||Lay||17-Feb-15 14:47||C||1.95||10||1.95||10|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 14:40 To Be Placed||Spellbound||Back||17-Feb-15 14:35||C||2.54||9.84||2.54||15.15|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 14:40 To Be Placed||Spellbound||Lay||17-Feb-15 14:34||C||2.5||10||2.5||-15.01|
|GB / Wolv 17th Feb / 14:30 To Be Placed||Illustrious Prince||Lay||17-Feb-15 14:28||C||5.7||10.17||5.7||10.17|
|GB / Wolv 17th Feb / 14:30 To Be Placed||Illustrious Prince||Back||17-Feb-15 14:27||C||5.8||10||5.8||-10|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 14:20 To Be Placed||Makadamia||Lay||17-Feb-15 14:20||C||2.3||10.26||2.3||-13.34|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 14:20 To Be Placed||Makadamia||Back||17-Feb-15 14:19||C||2.36||10||2.36||13.6|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 14:20 To Be Placed||Iconic Rose||Back||17-Feb-15 14:16||C||2.14||9.33||2.14||10.64|
|GB / Weth 17th Feb / 14:20 To Be Placed||Iconic Rose||Lay||17-Feb-15 14:15||C||2.04||10||2.04||-10.4|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 14:10 To Be Placed||Cresswell Breeze||Lay||17-Feb-15 14:12||C||1.82||10.55||1.82||-8.69|
|GB / Taun 17th Feb / 14:10 To Be Placed||Cresswell Breeze||Back||17/02/2015 14:04||C||1.9||10||1.9||9|
Normally a 100% success rate is ideal of course.
But on about a third of the trades I committed the cardinal sin of letting them go in running after the price direction went the complete opposite of what I was expecting.
Basically, the software (appeared to) predict one thing, something else happened, I let it go inplay (oops) but fortune was on my side.
The rest however was a mix of prices going the way I understood was the intention, as predicted by the software…, but, as a test, I also did the complete opposite to what I understood the software to be predicting in others and had a fair amount of success with that too!
That being said, the reason I use the term “as I understood it” is that I’m still not totally convinced I am getting it right and don’t want to give an unfair negative impression if I’m not.
But at the same time I like to think I’m reasonably well clued up and if I am struggling to grasp things then that might be the case too for other users and certainly for those less aware when it comes to trading.
(Unless of course I am grasping it but I was just unlucky with my trades or the software didn’t perform as well as I had hoped….!!!)
I did only use £10 stakes per bet and if, say, I was making between 30p-50p with each trade, that obviously equates to £3-£5 per trade at £100 and 10 of those a day is a fairly decent return.
But I just didn’t feel confident enough to do that, due to not feeling entirely comfortable that I knew what I was doing when using the software.
Obviously, once you place the first bet in the trade it can only go up or down and so doesn’t give the software much scope. It’s either right or wrong, basically a 50/50 chance just as if you flipped a coin or guessed, so whilst you can’t realistically expect any software to be right every time, it does have to give you a significant edge to make it worthwhile.
There are several videos you can watch on the website showing different ways of how you can use the software to your advantage and there’s also a chat room too.
I did watch the videos and had a look in at the chat room but it is a lot to take in and I was encouraged to see that many of the things I experienced were also mentioned when Lucy interviewed the previous triallist Gail, as at least that made me think I wasn’t the only one!
Trading The Horses is a difficult product to sum up. I might also have had unrealistic expectations before I started.
I tended to pick my horses a little randomly, although still one from the number of horses as indicated by the software but random in the sense that if there was more than one per race then I’d have to choose it myself. When I really wanted to be given the single name of a specific horse or a first choice option if more than one was available.
I also only ever placed my bets using Betfair’s interface, then set a price higher or lower than my first side of the trade and then waited to see if it got matched.
I didn’t have set margins each time and instead just manually chose a few ticks higher or lower, which again might be a bit random rather than any hard and fast set of rules.
Using Betfair’s interface to place bets might not really seem ideal either but then you then have the further complications of having to use other software better suited to trading, which will probably mean more expense, as well as having to keep switching between both sets of software when trading.
So anyway… where do we go from here?!
The bottom line is:
a) I didn’t feel comfortable with the product and can’t say I felt confident about relying on its indicators;
b) I won every single trade, though some clearly with a huge slice of luck!
My feeling is therefore that we should continue trialling for at least another month… so I will ask the Trading The Horses guys for a trial extension.
The purpose will be to test whether my skill and understanding grow to the point that I feel more confident about the tool OR I reach the conclusion that it’s no better than random betting.
I’ll be back in a month or so with my final report on TTH.