May 30, 2016

Over Goals Tips Review

Lay Back & Get Rich betting system review

It’s taken me five months to test Over Goals Tips: but I don’t mind as it’s a very appealing product.

The strike rate is terrific…

The effort involved is negligible…

The risk is low…

But the profits – well, they’re pretty low too.

All of which led me to ask in my month #4 report: “How much profit is ‘enough’ for a system to be considered worthwhile?”

Because, as you’ll see below, Over Goals Tips has made money.

So how much profit is enough for you…?

Overall we’re looking at a net profit of 8.3 points.

So inevitably the high-level statistics are not exactly earth-shattering:

Over Goals TipsWhole Trial
Profit8.32
Bets206
Winning Bets169
Strike Rate82%
ROI4.0%
Average Odds1.27
Highest Balance8.32
Lowest Balance-4.20

Still, there are a number of very positive things to emphasize.

Firstly, and unusually for a straight betting trial, there have been no heart attacks. Not one.

Because our lowest net position was a balance of just -4.2 points.

Meaning that Over Goals hasn’t been a pain to live with.

Secondly, it’s cheap.

In its very simplest form, you can get the list of teams to back for just £12 + VAT. 

Though if you want to have the selections picked for you, it’s going to cost you more.

Thirdly and fourthly – well, I’ve already mentioned the high strike rate and minimal effort requirement.

These again both make life much easier. You are not going to have to deal with long losing runs nor spend hours in front of your computer.

In short, this is betting at its quickest and least alarming. And that really ought to count for something.

If you’d like to peruse the complete results log, you can do so here.

Summary

Deciding on Pass or Fail marks for product trials is usually pretty straightforward. Most of the time, the result tends to scream at you from the results log.

However, that’s not the case with Over Goals Tips. Nobody is going to go crazy about 8  points’ profit in five months.

But you know, there is a lot to be said for a service that, even on its bad days, doesn’t scare you to death.

This is a wonderfully cautious system that could just make you some nice undemonstrative profits: precisely as it has done for me.

You just need to be patient with it..

Over Goals Tips - Performance

Over Goals Tips – Performance

So Over Goals Tips makes sense to me as part of a portfolio. And for that reason, I’m going to award it a Pass.

I don’t expect anyone who gets a copy of the manual to retire young as a result.

But it might just put a little smile on your face if you stick at it.

Find out more about Over Goals Tips here.

Lucy


Update: 25th April 2016

How much profit is ‘enough’ for a system to considered worthwhile?

I find I’m asking myself this question a lot as I grind through my ultra-low-risk Over Goals Tips trial.

I’ve tested a lot of volatile products here at Lay Back, and learned slowly to live with the emotions that come with triumph and disaster.

However, there is an opposite, less talked-out-about problem with low-risk alternatives such as this one.

Specifically, is Over Goals Tips perhaps just a bit too dull….?

Let’s consider the facts.

First of all, we do, just about, remain in profit, as you can see.

Over Goals Tips Whole TrialMonth 4 Only
Profit3.04-0.3
Bets15640
Winning Bets12631
Strike Rate81%78%
ROI1.9%-0.8%
Average Odds1.271.28

And yes, that ROI is extremely modest.

But then the strike rate is reassuringly high and volatility is minimal.

The running balance has never exceeded +5.64 points. Nor have we ever fallen below -4.2.

Over Goals Tips - Performance

Over Goals Tips – Performance

The problem is that the prices on offer are so short and the market extremely efficient.

Hence months like this one where nothing much happened!..

DateGameOddsBookieWin?ProfitBalance
     b/fwd3.34
02/04/2016Boca Juniors vs Atl Rafaela1.29888SportYes0.293.63
02/04/2016Dundalk vs Derry1.3StanJamesYes0.33.93
02/04/2016Atletico Madrid vs Betis1.33SkyBetYes0.334.26
02/04/2016Terek Grozny vs Anzhi Makhachkala1.47BoyleSportYes0.474.73
02/04/2016Juventus vs Empoli1.31888SportNo-13.73
02/04/2016Vorskla vs Stal Dniprod1.36BoyleSportNo-12.73
02/04/2016Zorya vs Karpaty1.33BoyleSportYes0.333.06
03/04/2016FC Copenhagan vs Sonderjyske1.36BetFredNo-12.06
03/04/2016Athletic Bilbao vs Granada1.31888SportYes0.312.37
03/04/2016Aberdeen vs Hamilton1.3StanJamesYes0.32.67
09/04/2016River Plate vs Sarmiento1.36SkyBetYes0.363.03
09/04/2016Charleroi vs St Truiden1.3BoyleSportYes0.33.33
09/04/2016Burnley vs Leeds1.33CoralNo-12.33
09/04/2016Manchester City vs West Brom1.2632RedYes0.262.59
09/04/2016CSKA Moscow vs Mordovya1.29LadbrokesYes0.292.88
10/04/2016Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen1.25StanJamesYes0.253.13
10/04/2016Hadjuk Split vs Istra 19611.3BoyleSportYes0.33.43
10/04/2016Villarreal vs Getafe1.36CoralYes0.363.79
10/04/2016Braga vs Moreirense1.2732RedYes0.274.06
10/04/2016TNS vs Bala Town1.25BoyleSportYes0.254.31
16/04/2016FK Pribram vs Ostrava1.22BetVictorYes0.224.53
16/04/2016Manchester United vs Aston Villa1.26UnibetNo-13.53
16/04/2016Myjava vs Zemplin1.3BoyleSportYes0.33.83
16/04/2016Trnava vs Mfk Skalica1.3StanJamesYes0.34.13
17/04/2016Arsenal vs Crystal Palace1.2BetFredYes0.24.33
17/04/2016Plzen v Brno1.2BoyleSportYes0.24.53
17/04/2016Porto vs Nacional1.22SkyBetYes0.224.75
17/04/2016Atletico Madrid vs Granada1.3StanJamesYes0.35.05
17/04/2016IFK Goteborg v Kalmar FF1.29LadbrokesYes0.295.34
17/04/2016Basaksehir vs Gaziantepspor1.3StanJamesYes0.35.64
23/04/2016Middlesbrough vs Ipswich1.25BetVictorNo-14.64
23/04/2016Wigan vs Southend1.22MarathonBetYes0.224.86
23/04/2016Accrington vs York1.2Bet365Yes0.25.06
23/04/2016Oxford vs Hartlepool1.22BetVictorYes0.225.28
23/04/2016Atletico Madrid vs Malaga1.3BetVictorNo-14.28
23/04/2016Karpaty vs Zakarpattia1.29BetVictorYes0.294.57
24/04/2016St Etienne vs Lorient1.22MarathonBetYes0.224.79
24/04/2016FK Krasnodar vs FC Ufa1.25Bet365Yes0.255.04
24/04/2016CSKA Moscow vs Dinamo Moscow1.23MarathonBetNo-14.04
24/04/2016Dynamo Kiev vs Vorskla1.26MarathonBetNo-13.04

You can download the results log for the whole trial right here.

Summary

In an odd sort of way, it’s nice to be able to run an uneventful trial.

Betting has the reputation for being extremely risky. However, Over Goals Tips is anything but.

Of course, it’s not a huge amount of fun either. But maybe that shouldn’t come into it. After all, we’re about profit here at Lay Back, not that dreaded bookie construct, recreational betting.

I will draw final conclusions in my next – and last – report when I get to 200 bets, which will be in 44 bets’ time.

But in the meantime, if you like the sound of ultra-low risk goals betting, you can still get hold of the Over Goals manual for just £12 here.

Lucy


Update: 27th March 2016

Patience is one of the least popular virtues.

And when it comes to betting, I suspect we all struggle with it.

Hence the appeal of high strike rate systems, as they massively reduce the risk of depressingly long, losing runs.

Over Goals Tips attracted me for precisely this reason.

In theory, it holds out the promise of good profits and limited drawdowns.

The only trouble is, up until now the first part of that equation – the profits – have been conspicuously absent.

Still, we entered month #3 just 2 points in arrears… so could Over Goals finally haul itself into the black?

Yes. We finally had a positive month. 🙂

We added five points which, at these very short prices, is remarkable.

 Over Goals TipsMonth 2Whole Trial
Profit5.183.34
Bets41116
Winning Bets3695
Strike Rate88%82%
ROI12.6%2.9%
Average Odds1.281.26

The performance graph shows that we finished the month with quite a flourish…

Over Goals Tips - Performance

Over Goals Tips – Performance

…and the results log for the period reveals that our last 29 bets yielded 28 winners.

DateGameOddsBookieWin?ProfitBalance
     b/fwd-1.84
27/02/2016Jablonec vs Brno1.29SkyBetYes0.29-1.55
27/02/2016Leicester vs Norwich1.25BetVictorNo-1-2.55
27/02/2016Vitesse vs Willem II1.29CoralNo-1-3.55
27/02/2016TNS vs Airbus UK1.2BoyleSportYes0.2-3.35
28/02/2016Charleroi vs Waasland Beveren1.28BetfairYes0.27-3.08
28/02/2016FC Copenhagen vs Esbjerg1.29888SportYes0.29-2.79
28/02/2016Brondby IF vs Hobro1.31888SportNo-1-3.79
28/02/2016Tottenham vs Swansea1.35Betfair SportsbookYes0.35-3.44
28/02/2016Olympiakos vs Veria FC1.18Bet365Yes0.18-3.26
28/02/2016Juventus v Inter1.4StanJamesYes0.4-2.86
05/03/2016Chelsea vs Stoke1.33BetVictorYes0.33-2.53
05/03/2016PSG vs Montpellier1.3Bet365No-1-3.53
05/03/2016Falkirk vs Alloa1.29Bet365Yes0.29-3.24
05/03/2016Dynamo Kiev vs Dnipro1.33BetVictorYes0.33-2.91
06/03/2016Din Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo1.22Bet365Yes0.22-2.69
06/03/2016Rijeka vs Osijek1.29Bet365Yes0.29-2.4
06/03/2016Sparta Prague vs Jablonec1.25BetVictorYes0.25-2.15
06/03/2016Lyon vs Guingamp1.25BetVictorYes0.25-1.9
06/03/2016Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorksla1.2Bet365Yes0.2-1.7
06/03/2016FC Dallas vs Philadelphia Union1.25BetVictorYes0.25-1.45
12/03/2016Hull vs MK Dons1.38888SportYes0.38-1.07
12/03/2016Atletico Mardrid vs Deportivo La Coruna1.36CoralYes0.36-0.71
12/03/2016Aberdeen vs Kilmarnock1.27BetfairYes0.26-0.45
12/03/2016Zorya vs Chernomorets Odesa1.28UnibetYes0.28-0.17
13/03/2016Hajduk Split vs vs NK Zagreb1.29BoyleSportYes0.290.12
13/03/2016Athletic Bilbao vs Betis1.3StanJamesYes0.30.42
13/03/2016Molde vs Tromso1.2BetVictorYes0.20.62
13/03/2016Zenit vs Rubin Kazan1.36LadbrokesYes0.360.98
13/03/2016Fiorentina vs Verona1.2SkyBetYes0.21.18
13/03/2016Fenerbahce vs Kayserispor1.25StanJamesNo-10.18
19/03/2016Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt1.25BetVictorYes0.250.43
19/03/2016Rijeka vs Inter Zapresic1.25Bet365Yes0.250.68
19/03/2016Sheffield Wednesday vs Charlton1.29BetVictorYes0.290.97
19/03/2016Panathinaikos vs Iraklis1.4BoyleSportYes0.41.37
19/03/2016CSKA Moscow vs Kubin Krasnodar1.3BetfairYes0.291.66
19/03/2016Morton vs Alloa1.3Bet365Yes0.31.96
19/03/2016Sporting Lisbon vs Arouca1.22LadbrokesYes0.222.18
20/03/2016Sparta Prague vs Slavia Prague1.29SkyBetYes0.292.47
20/03/2016PSG vs Monaco1.29BoyleSportYes0.292.76
20/03/2016Braga vs U Madeira1.29BetfairYes0.283.04
26/03/2016Falkirk FC vs Livingston FC1.3StanJamesYes0.33.34

You can download the complete results log for the trial here.

Summary

In addition to an excellent monthly performance, the tipster demonstrated commendable customer service skills when he wrote on Friday to say that he’d rather not issue unpredictable selections from this weekend’s batch of friendlies.  Instead, he explained that he will “add a free week to all of your subscriber balances as compensation”.

If only all services were run in such a spirit.

I said last time that my enthusiasm for this trial was flagging.

Well, it’s now been reignited by a fine month’s performance. Let’s hope we continue in the same vein.

I’ll be back in late April with my next report.

In the meantime, you can find out more about Over Goals Tips here.

Lucy


Update: 27th February 2016

Call it a bias if you like, but I have a soft spot for inexpensive systems from independent service providers.

Over Goals Tips is a case in point.

It is available for £12 a month or just £47 a year, which is unquestionably cheap.

The more important question however is: does it represent good value?

I had an indifferent first month with the product, finishing 1.71 points in the red.

On the plus side, the high strike rate, at 77%, ensured I didn’t have to endure long losing runs.

But if I’m not making any money, what’s the point!?

Inevitably, I was hoping month #2 would be better…. so, was it?

Frustratingly, no. We just traded sideways again.

To be precise, I lost 0.13 points over the period, to leave the bank a couple of points down after two months.

Over Goals Tips TrialMonth 2Overall
Profit-0.13-1.84
Bets4075
Winning Bets3259
Strike Rate80%79%
ROI-0.3%-2.5%
Average Odds1.261.25

As the performance graph shows, we never quite seem to break into profit.

Over Goals Tips - Performance

Over Goals Tips – Performance

The big problem is that the service is struggling to find value.

Because it concentrates on short-priced selections, Over Goals Tips needs to achieve a heroic strike rate just to maintain parity.

You can see how short the odds I am getting are, by looking at this month’s results log:

DateGameOddsBookieWin?ProfitRunning Balance
     b/fwd-1.71
30/01/2016Bayer Leverkusen vs Hannover1.17BoyleSportYes0.17-1.54
30/01/2016Arsenal vs Burnley1.21888SportYes0.21-1.33
30/01/2016Milwall vs Crewe1.24BetfairYes0.23-1.1
30/01/2016Panetolikos vs Kalloni1.36CoralNo-1-2.1
30/01/2016Rangers vs Falkirk1.17Bet365No-1-3.1
31/01/2016Club Bruge vs Lokeren1.19BetfairYes0.18-2.92
31/01/2016Feyenoord vs Den Haag1.2BetfairYes0.19-2.73
31/01/2016AEK Athens vs Veri FC1.25BetdaqYes0.24-2.49
31/01/2016Sevilla vs Levante1.26888SportYes0.26-2.23
31/01/2016Napoli vs Empoli1.21888SportYes0.21-2.02
06/02/2016Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC1.22BetdaqYes0.21-1.81
06/02/2016Liverpool vs Sunderland1.29BetdaqYes0.28-1.53
06/02/2016Tottenham vs Watford1.3888SportNo-1-2.53
06/02/2016Atletico Madrid vs Eibar1.36SkyBetYes0.36-2.17
07/02/2016River Plate vs Quilmes1.44StanJamesYes0.44-1.73
07/02/2016Standard De Liege vs St. Truiden1.26888SportYes0.26-1.47
07/02/2016Olympiakos vs PAOK Saloniki1.26888SportNo-1-2.47
07/02/2016Porto vs Arouca1.18LadbrokesYes0.18-2.29
07/02/2016Roma vs Sampdoria1.27BetfairYes0.26-2.03
07/02/2016Besiktas vs Gaziantepspor1.2SkyBetYes0.2-1.83
13/02/2016Anderlecht vs Zulte Waregem1.88888SportYes0.88-0.95
13/02/2016Genk vs Waasland Beveren1.24888SportYes0.24-0.71
13/02/2016Borussia Dortmund vs Hannover1.09BoyleSportNo-1-1.71
13/02/2016Chelsea vs Newcastle1.24BetfairYes0.23-1.48
13/02/2016Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao1.13BetdaqYes0.13-1.35
13/02/2016Paris St. Germain vs Lille1.37BetfairNo-1-2.35
13/02/2016Celtic vs Ross County1.15BoyleSportYes0.15-2.2
14/02/2016Boca Juniors vs Atletico Tucuman1.5BetdaqNo-1-3.2
14/02/2016PAOK Saloniki vs Iraklis1.4CoralNo-1-4.2
14/02/2016Sevilla vs Las Palmas1.22888SportYes0.22-3.98
20/02/2016Salzburg vs Altach1.17Bet365Yes0.17-3.81
20/02/2016Paris St. Germain vs Reims1.2888SportYes0.2-3.61
20/02/2016Monaco vs Troyes1.23888SportYes0.23-3.38
20/02/2016Celtic vs Inverness1.19UnibetYes0.19-3.19
21/02/2016Sparta Prague vs M Boleslav1.22SkyBetYes0.22-2.97
21/02/2016Feyenoord vs Roda1.2CoralYes0.2-2.77
21/02/2016Olympiakos vs Atromitos1.29LadbrokesYes0.29-2.48
21/02/2016Roma vs Palermo1.22SkyBetYes0.22-2.26
21/02/2016Basel vs FC Vaduz1.21BetfairYes0.2-2.06
21/02/2016Porto vs Moreirense1.22888SportYes0.22-1.84

You can download the complete results log for the trial by clicking here.

Summary

I still have 125 bets remaining before I reach my 200 bet target. But I am struggling to maintain my enthusiasm.

It seems unlikely to me that, backing at these prices, there is ever going to be a worthwhile upturn in our fortunes that merits the effort involved in placing all these bets!

However, if there is one thing that trialling has taught me, it’s persistence.

Maybe a long winning run lies around the next corner?

Let’s hope so anyway.

I’ll be back in late March with my next report.

Meanwhile, you can read more about Over Goals Tips here.

Lucy


Update: 27th January 2016

One of the hardest betting lessons is learning how to lose.

And indeed how to win.

I still struggle with the emotion created by the ups and downs: feeling elated during the good times and disconsolate in the bad.

Neither emotion is particularly helpful in the long run.

And it doesn’t seem to help that I do know it’s only really the long view that matters. Over-reacting just seems to be part of being human.

In view of which, I believe there may be value for beginners in starting out with high strike rate systems.

Because, other things being equal, higher strike rates tend to translate into lower volatility. Which means shorter losing runs, smaller profits – but probably smaller losses too.

In short, high strike rates generally mean less drama all round: so you’re more likely to stick at it for the long term.

All of which brings me, somewhat circuitously. to my first monthly progress report on the charmingly uneventful Over Goals Tips!

The first month has produced little in the way of fireworks. It’s all quite a relief!

Maybe I’ve just been trialling too long. But I find the once-a-week email containing the upcoming weekend’s tips almost reassuringly pedestrian!

The complete log of our 35 selections to date is as follows:

DateGameOddsBookieWin?ProfitBalance
02/01/2016Arsenal vs Newcastle1.13BetVictorNo-1-1
02/01/2016Atletico Madrid vs Levante1.32888SportNo-1-2
02/01/2016Al-Rayyan SC vs Al Kharaitiyat SC1.13BetVictorYes0.13-1.87
02/01/2016Celtic vs Partick1.2Bet365No-1-2.87
03/01/2016Athletic Bilbao vs Las Palmas1.33SkyBetYes0.33-2.54
09/01/2016Aresenal vs Sunderland1.22MatchbookYes0.22-2.32
09/01/2016Manchester United vs Sheffield United1.28MatchbookNo-1-3.32
09/01/2016Lyon vs Troyes1.2BoyleSportYes0.2-3.12
09/01/2016Motherwell vs Cove Rangers1.13Bet365Yes0.13-2.99
09/01/2016AEK Athens vs Xanthi1.36CoralYes0.36-2.63
10/01/2016Chelsea vs Scunthope1.16888SportYes0.16-2.47
10/01/2016Villarreal vs Gijon1.3CoralYes0.3-2.17
10/01/2016PAOK Saloniki vs PAS Giannina1.33WilliamHillYes0.33-1.84
10/01/2016Olympiakoks vs Levadiakos1.15CoralYes0.15-1.69
10/01/2016Sporting Lisbonn vs Braga1.33BetVictorYes0.33-1.36
16/01/2016Hull vs Charlton1.29Bet365Yes0.29-1.07
16/01/2016Tottenham vs Sunderland1.22BetVictorYes0.22-0.85
16/01/2016Manchester City vs Crystal Palace1.2Bet365Yes0.2-0.65
16/01/2016Villarreal vs Betis1.33SkyBetNo-1-1.65
16/01/2016Torino vs Frosinone1.26MatchbookYes0.26-1.39
17/01/2016Oostende vs Waasland Beveren1.22BetVictorYes0.22-1.17
17/01/2016Roma vs Verona1.26BetfairYes0.25-0.92
17/01/2016Asteras Tripolis vs Kalloni1.25CoralYes0.25-0.67
17/01/2016PAOK Saloniki vs Veria FC1.18LadbrokesYes0.18-0.49
17/01/2016Besiktas vs Mersin I Y1.17888SportYes0.17-0.32
23/01/2016Ajax vs Vitesse1.23BetfairNo-1-1.32
23/01/2016Olympiakos vs Xanthi1.2BetdaqNo-1-2.32
23/01/2016Paris St. Germain vs Angers1.25Bet365Yes0.25-2.07
23/01/2016Lille vs Toyes1.3StanJamesYes0.3-1.77
23/01/2016Celtic vs St. Johnstone1.18888SportYes0.18-1.59
23/01/2016Benfica vs Arouca1.23BetfairYes0.22-1.37
24/01/2016Anderlecht vs Charleroi1.28888SportYes0.28-1.09
24/01/2016PSV Eindhoven vs FC Twente1.1Bet365Yes0.1-0.99
24/01/2016Porto vs Maritimo1.2BoyleSportNo-1-1.99
24/01/2016Inter vs Carpi1.3888SportYes0.3-1.69
Profit-1.69 
    Bets35 
    Winning Bets27 
    Strike Rate77% 
    ROI-4.8% 
    Average Odds1.23

Summary

We are 1.7 points down after 35 selections so the trial certainly isn’t setting the world alight yet.

However, we have an awful long way to go – another 165 bets, to be precise – and I have a feeling that this will be a very easy service to live with.

A quick bit of mental arithmetic tells me we need to get our strike rate up to around 83% if we’re to lock in regular profits. We’re at 77% so we’ve not too far to go.

I’m looking forward to the rest of the trial and will be back with more towards the end of February.

In the meantime, you can find out more about Over Goals Tips here.

Lucy


Introduction: 28th December 2015

I have to admit to a slight prejudice in favour of the ‘little guy’ tipster.

You know who I mean… the person who runs up a website of their own and starts promoting their betting service without anyone else’s help.

The tipster market, in particular, is dominated by a few big ‘warehouse’ sites, such as Betting Gods, Betfan and the Pro Betting Club.

But recently we’ve uncovered — and started trialling — new offerings from one-man bands.

And today I’ve got another one for you.

An appealingly straightforward offering called…. Over Goals Tips!

This product is provided by one Ben Jones, a self-confessed football nut who publishes a guide to betting in the Goals markets.

The PDF is intended to be usable as a standalone product. If it works, it looks very fair value at just £12 + VAT.

However for an additional fee (currently £47 a year plus VAT), Ben will send you a whole year’s worth of selections – thus making the thing super-easy to follow.

The PDF does sound pretty easy to follow in its own right however. It contains:

  • a list of 55 teams from around the world that, according to Ben, “should be backed on the over 1.5 Goals markets for consistent profits”.
  • a staking plan that Ben personally uses which, he says, “ensures a consistent rise in profits”.

To his credit, all revisions to the guide are issued to customers for free.

And apparently Ben does update it frequently: for instance, the latest version was released in December 2015.

So how are we going to test it?

Well I really like the sound of this so I’m going to keep it for myself instead of asking one of my triallists to help!

However, I don’t have the time to research 55 teams’ fixture lists so I will simply follow Ben’s tips.

All selections are entered as back bets in the Over 1.5 Goals market, so we should at least get a good strike rate.

I will use Betfair wherever I can, though will resort to bookmakers if there is inadequate liquidity.

We will aim for 200 bets as usual and track performance at both level stakes and by using Ben’s staking plan.

Wish me luck!

Lucy

Click Here to Leave a Comment Below

Leave a Reply: