Sometimes it seems I just test tipster after tipster. Is there any way really to tell them all apart?
For each one claims to offer the same deceptively simple solution to the betting conundrum….
“Just copy my bets, and all will be well”.
It’s such an intoxicating idea! But is it realistic?
And is trialling really just about discovering who has the most accurate crystal ball?
When I started testing, I used to think so. And of course, up to a point, I was right.
But I now realise that every crystal ball clouds over from time to time. So I’ve come to believe that system design is probably as important as correct forecasting.
Indeed, it may even be more important.
Take for instance ZeroHype’s Subscribe product, which forecasts football match outcomes.
When I tested it, I came to realise that, the way it was designed, it could never provide enough selections to deliver long-term profit, once the price of the service was taken into account.
Typically, it supplied just one tip a week, so even a handful of losing bets would take months to recover from. And by this time of course, a customer would also have racked up significant subscription fees.
As well as tipping frequency, it has become clear to me that strike rate matters as much as profit. For I have come across a range of services that can be shown to be profitable long-term, yet are almost impossible to live with – unless you are one of those rare punters with the constitution of an ox.
So I conclude that my perfect tipster would take both tipping frequency and strike rate into account, and design a service that doesn’t just deliver profit, but also a daily experience you can realistically live with.
And thus it is with these thoughts in mind, that I would like to introduce you to a tipster who has clearly put a lot of thought into the design of his product…
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you: Beaumont’s Bets.
Now this one comes with quite a reputation.
Firstly, my usual target of 200 bets turns out to be trivial by Paul Beaumont’s standards. Apparently, we should expect to receive this many in a week – probably more.
So any concerns about tipping frequency can be discounted immediately.
And secondly, the service comes with a very unusual staking plan.
Essentially, Paul recommends you place a bet at his recommended bookie in the morning, and then lay off 75% of your potential winnings at Betfair SP.
I shall return to the logic of this approach at a future date, but for now it’s worth noting that it will unquestionably soften the blow of losing runs – as clearly, all those lay bets will provide a degree of insurance.
So again, it’s clear that Paul is trying to design a service we can live with more easily.
Having said all this, I still wouldn’t be surprised to find that straight backing proves more profitable than the back-and-lay method. But are you prepared to live with the additional discomfort required to squeeze out those final drops of profit.?
I am very optimistic about this trial, on account of Paul Beaumont’s remarkable reputation.
I have therefore asked Jamie to run it: the logic being that Jamie has just had a terrible time with CB Sports Investments, and I feel I owe him the opportunity to make some money!
Our goal is to give Beaumont’s Bets around a month – which should provide us with 1000 or so selections!
We will begin this week. I think you can take it Jamie’s in for quite a ride!