Hi All, Cyprus-free zone Lee here with the final week of the Lucrative Racing Trust’s Place Bets trial.
So, did we sprint across the finish line or fall over it in a crumpled heap of exhaustion?
Well, the week started in a manner that suggested the former, but ended up nearer the latter as three late nasties chewed a significant chunk out of our profits. Accordingly, the weekly figure was of the red variety, to the tune of £71.57.
Which leaves us with a few numbers to crunch and conclusions to make. But bearing in mind I’m not a sales rep for Lucrative and have no affiliate dollar to maximise, I’ll start by letting the figures do the talking.
From a starting bank of £1000 and a 2% ratchet, the 19-week trial produced:
- 200 bets placed (158 won, 42 lost)
- 79% strike-rate
- £501.57 overall profit
- 50.16% ROI
I think that qualifies for a pass, doesn’t it?
And if you consider that the trial hit around 10% ROI per month rather than the 20% average since the inception of the Place Bets service, I have a feeling that the vendors may well be slightly disappointed with this return!
Of course, bald statistics tell only half the story …
If you’ve followed this little trip of mine from the start, you’ll be aware that it hasn’t been one continuous ride in the comfy chair of Easy Coach Travel. The service started out on an incredible run, took a worrying nose-dive, then charged back to return a handsome profit of just over half the starting bank.
So, do I recommend you invest your cash in this little number, or not?
What’s To Like?
Everything about the Lucrative Place Bets product comes across as professional.
The selections arrive on time every morning. Vendor support is excellent. The instructions on placing the bets are clear. They take seconds to put on, so no staring in front of a screen for hours on end (unless you want to). Even a Neanderthal like yours truly can understand the staking system.
No big sales pitch on the site. No changing of the system when the bad patch occurred. No feeble excuses or ‘Yes, but we’re still in profit over the year!’ cobblers that you find on certain other services at the first sign of a loss.
And most importantly of course, it proved to be a very profitable system.
What’s Not To Like?
I still haven’t decided whether it’s best to take the early price when you receive the selection (poor liquidity, taking a potentially low price) or to wait until just before the off (good liquidity, but runs the risk of missing a selection which steams under the 1.15 cut-off mark). Lucrative recommend that you stick with just one method. I see no reason to disagree.
The Issue of the Numpty Triallist – Read and Learn
Now, at this point it’s time to be brutally honest.
You see, many of the worries I had with the service (in particular during the bad patch in January) were self-inflicted. Did I read the ‘Mindset’ section on the Lucrative website? Repeatedly. Did I make the profit figure achieved in the trial? Absolutely not.
If you’re not an experienced ‘investor’, feel uncomfortable with risk (or more specifically, loss) and are still undecided about this product, then I strongly suggest that you go back and re-read those parts of the trial where success was in short supply. I know, I know – it’s painfully unfunny and life’s too short. But this should give you an answer as to whether this is for you or not.
Markets are essentially driven by the fear and greed of traders; a game of social psychology, if you will. I fall into the former category, and as a confirmed cynic, it’s natural for me to draw back from losses and question my strategy. I’m no more likely to sit back and unthinkingly continue to make the same mistakes as I am to go out on the lash with Edward Scissorhands and allow him to trim my man-bits as part of a drunken bet at the end of the evening. Although unleashing the dark forces of the Bon Jovi back catalogue to invoke a change in fortune was probably a step too far.
In short, my opinion was that the Lucrative staking plan was too aggressive to sustain a losing run. So I altered it. As a result, I didn’t make as much money. A fearful trader has no business with this product. Go figure.
If you’re a seasoned investor, the information here and on the Lucrative site should be enough for you to have reached a logical decision regarding the product. For newbies thinking about taking the plunge, my advice is this:
- Take advantage of the introductory offer (first month free)
- Reduce your starting bank to as little as £250
- Don’t paper trade – get comfortable with the psychological impact of winning and losing
- Most importantly, if you’re going to do it, stick with the plan!
One Last Point …
When I get a little more time, I’ll cross-reference my profit figures and percentages with Lucrative’s over the same period and post them here. One glaring discrepancy (the War Correspondent fiasco in week 5) resulted in a £177 loss on my part, which wasn’t incurred by Lucrative. Given that I’ve been trialling the product free of charge, the subscription fees of the service (currently £40 per month) just about cancel that one out, so in a roundabout way my end figure is not far off an expected profit margin.
Hope you’ve enjoyed it. I’m off for a bit of lie down before I join the ranks of the paying Lucrative membership!
This week’s results were as follows.
|LUCRATIVE RACING TRUST TRIAL – PLACE BET RESULTS (5/4/2013 – 11/04/2013)|
|DATE||MEETING||HORSE||ODDS||TARGET PROFIT||STAKE||RESULT||P/L||TOTAL BANK|
|(2% OF BANK)|
|05/04/2013||7.30 Wolverhampton||My Son Max||1.28||31.46||117.98||W||31.45||1604.59|
|08/04/2013||2.20 Kempton||Memory Styx||1.26||32.09||129.60||W||32.09||1636.68|
|08/04/2013||3.50 Kempton||Sam Spade||1.71||32.73||48.41||W||32.73||1669.41|
|09/04/2013||3.20 Carlisle||Sleep In First||1.32||34.74||113.98||W||34.74||1771.60|
|Bets:||10 (Win 7, Lose 3)||200 (Win 158, Lose 42)|
IMPORTANT NOTE ADDED 23/3/2014, BY LUCY
Just a quick note to say I have down-rated this trial to a ‘Neutral’ status as a result of the post-trial dialogue that follows this report (see below).
The current status at time of writing is that various people have expressed disappointment in the service, and Michael @ Lucrative has offered to respond to their challenge. I may re-rate again once he has done so.