In Lucy’s absence she’s invited me to guest post on laybackandgetrich.com about my new both teams to score system.
For those of you who don’t know me (which is probably most of you), my name is Dave Lenton and I run an online betting information and tips website called cheekypunter.com. It was when I started writing and researching the both teams to score tips articles for my site that I came up with the system I’m about to share with you.
NOTE: This system is still in a test phase and it’s important to point out that Lucy doesn’t endorse it… in fact until the results are in I’m not sure I do.
The purpose of this post is to explain the system and I’m hoping discuss the viability and profitability of it. It’s too early into the testing phase to see if it fully works or not. However I believe the logic behind the system is valid.
How the Betting System Was Born
My system doesn’t actually have a name yet so for now I guess we’ll call it ‘The Cheeky Punter Both Teams To Score System’, and yes I know, highly original and very catchy. It was born soon after I wrote this post on my blog over at Cheeky Punter.
After writing the post I was sure the Goals Galore promotion at Betfred was exploitable and set about trying to work out if the odds offered on the Goals Galore Bonus coupon at Betfred were offering punters a positive or negative expectation (promotion explained in full here).
I opened up an excel spreadsheet and listed all the games included on the coupon in one column and the odds of both teams scoring in those games in the adjacent column. What I found was very interesting. The range of odds available was between 1.60 and about 2.50.
So… it’s much more likely that some games on the coupon will end with both teams scoring than others.
How the System Works
The both teams to score system I’ve developed works by taking advantage of the games which are most likely to contain both teams scoring on the Goals Galore Bonus coupon at Betfred.
The easiest way for me to show you how exactly this happens is with an example from the first day of the 2013/2014 football season.
Here is the both teams to score post I put up for that day – http://www.cheekypunter.com/tips/both-teams-to-score-tips-august-17th-19th/
As you can see I went through the entire Goals Galore Bonus coupon at Betfred and found the odds of each team scoring. I then selected the five games with the shortest odds on both teams scoring and backed them as an accumulator.
The games and odds were:
Crawley vs. Rotherham: 1.65
West Bromwich v Southampton: 1.667
Bournemouth vs. Wigan Athletic: 1.667
FC Wacker vs. SV Ried: 1.667
Port Vale vs. Bradford: 1.667
By backing both teams to score in these five matches via the Goals Galore Bonus coupon I was getting odds of 17.0 meaning a £10 bet would return £170 in total.
Had I backed these five games as an accumulator at BetVictor (the site where I took the odds on each individual game from) I’d have got only £127.42 for my £10 bet.
Just by betting using the Betfred promotion I’d managed to secure myself a payout of £42.58 more.
Why the System Should Work
I guess this is the important part. Here’s why I think the system should work but also why there’s a chance it won’t. It’s on this section of my post I’d really like any comments to be focused.
If you flip a coin you have exactly a 50% chance of heads or tails so if you were betting on the flip to breakeven you’d need odds of even money. Anything less and you’d lose money long term. Anything more and you’d make money long term.
So let’s assume (which I believe I am right to) that the odds offered by BetVictor are very close to the true odds of both teams scoring in each game they price. Now there will be an edge built into these odds and it should be around 2% (which is pretty standard).
Meaning if the odds offered are 1.667 then the true odds should be 1.70. Therefore the true odds of my selections are:
Crawley vs. Rotherham: 1.68
West Bromwich v Southampton: 1.7
Bournemouth vs. Wigan Athletic: 1.7
FC Wacker vs. SV Ried: 1.7
Port Vale vs. Bradford: 1.7
And together as an accumulator a £10 bet would return £140.32. Well by backing at Betfred my £10 gets me £170 and therefore my bet has a positive expectation.
It’s like I’m backing the coin toss with odds of better than even money and with my system even if the bookmakers edge was 5% I’d still be on the right side of the wager.
So, what do you guys think? I’ll be running the both teams to score system as a test this season. I’m very interested to see how it turns out.