As regular readers will know, I’m a huge fan of Mike Cruickshank’s Bonus Bagging Service, and have racked up some very nice risk-free profits testing it on my site. I believe that it represents an easy way of building a betting bank, before moving on to other systems later.
This week therefore, I’ve decided to test Mike’s new arbitrage service. Can it deliver the same sort of risk-free profits as the basic bonus bagging product?
Well to begin with, unlike Bonus Bagging, the new arbitrage service is a pay-as-you-go product. The cost is £10+VAT per month (i.e. £12 / month), which does compare favourably with other arbing services. However, the focus seems, on first use, much narrower than say, Sports Punter, with the arbs offered by Mike being almost exclusively of the ‘back and lay’ type (i.e. backing at a bookie and laying off at an exchange).
There is of course nothing wrong with back-and-lay arbitrage in principle provided the service does deliver a profit. However it does mean that profits can be eroded by Betfair commission, plus, most worryingly, liquidity may become a serious issue at the exchange.
Take for example the following sample screenshot from today:
On first sight, I was hoping to select the match between Espanyol and Real Madrid, with an away/draw combination in the half-time/full-time market delivering a nice little profit. However, the lack of liquidity is shown in the right hand column. With only £102 being available on Betfair, I wouldn’t be able to place bets for more than about £5, and even then I might not be matched if another user of Mike’s came in at that precise second.
To be fair, I have subsequently got the following arb matched, precisely because the odds on offer are a lot lower (thus helping the available Betfair liquidity go further):
Unfortunately though, I have had to place a little more on the Lay side of the arb to compensate for Betfair commission, which in turn reduces the overall profit potential as follows:
|Stan James Back Bet||Win for La Equidad||Winnings Possible|
Still, as you can see, a win for La Equidad would deliver a nice little addition to the Arb of the Week running profit total – so fingers crossed!
In summary though, I do still have one or two reservations, as described above, about Mike’s arb system: certainly in contrast to his Bonus Bagging Service which strikes me as a complete no-brainer. And although his arbing product is good value, its usefulness is likely to be limited. So if you sign up, do so with your eyes wide open…