Hello, this is Paul here with the trial conclusion on Andy Bell Racing.
And if you think it’s a bit premature to wind the trial up after just two months, well..! We have had 215 bets to date, so we’ve just arrived at our 200 bet finishing line a little more quickly than usual.
Yep, it hasn’t taken us long but it has been a wild ride…!
This month has been as bad as last month was good!
We’ve had a further 113 bets – very slightly more than the preceding month – but there the similarities end.
We contrived to lose almost 80 points this time, and wiped out a good chunk of our profits.
However we still finished in the black with a net profit of just over 58 points.
I also tracked performance at Betfair SP and finished 18 points ahead there. However, testing at the exchange was more of a problem because several of the selections were complex bookmaker constructs which are hard to replicate once you leave the bookie environment. You should therefore concentrate on the results achieved at the bookmakers, and regard my Betfair testing as a guide.
The difference between month two and the overall trial results is clearly demonstrated by the key statistics.
(Note that we were using a simple £1 per point).
|This Month||Whole Trial|
|No. of bets||114||216|
|Profit at prices obtained at the bookie||-£79.95||£58.19|
|Profit at Betfair SP||-£74.92||£18.31|
|%age Profit at bookie prices taken||-79.95%||58.19%|
|Profit at Betfair SP||-74.92%||18.31%|
|Strike rate at bookie prices taken||30.70%||30.09%|
|Strike rate at Betfair SP||28.07%||29.63%|
It’s interesting to note that the strike rate didn’t change much.
But we didn’t land the ‘big hits’ in month two that make all the difference for this service.
You can download the complete results log by clicking here.
It is possible my feelings have been affected by the big losses I’ve experienced in month two, but, if it hadn’t been for the odd great day’s results saving the day, it could have been a lot worse.
There is an argument for continuing the trial, as is often the case with low strike rate systems like this one.
I’m not convinced though. I could imagine every month yo-yoing up and down, and I’m not sure what that would prove.
Andy Bell Racing is characterised by:
- a low strike rate
- a rollercoaster ride,
- some big hits when you feel like a millionaire, and
- long gaps in between!
But the fact is, it’s made 58 points at the bookies, so it has to go into the Passed folder.
It just won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, that’s all.
In many ways, Andy feels like a traditional “punter’s tipster”, with a focus on bookmakers rather than on the exchange.
Several of the bet types used are not really possible – or at least, are not particularly easy – at Betfair. Eachway doubles and trixies feature regularly, so you have to regard this as a service that has been designed for bookmaker betting.
And this takes us to the fundamental nature of the service, I think.
Basically, you have to be prepared to roll with the punches, and wait for the big hits, if you’re going to live with Andy Bell.
However, if you have the right mindset, it could still make you an awful lot of money.
Update: 18th July 2014
Hello there, it’s Paul here with my first monthly report on Andy Bell Racing.
And I have to say, it’s been a busy first month with 86 valid selections received, including several different types of bets to track at both the bookies and Betfair.
So what I’ve done, to ensure I get a life as well as a trial, is put the bets on at the bookies, but then I’ve recorded:
- what odds Andy says he got
- the odds I actually got
- the odds available at Betfair (where I didn’t bet).
So the bookie profits shown are based on the prices I obtained, but the Betfair numbers are just based on Betfair Starting Prices.
I also didn’t replicate a handful of complex bets at Betfair (e.g. trixies!), but just entered £0 in the Betfair column. So I suggest you treat the bookie column as the ‘true’ or ‘correct’ one, and use the Betfair sums more as a guide of what’s possible.
So… how has Andy Bell Racing performed in month #1?
Overall, we’ve done very well as you’ll see, but the picture is a bit more complicated than it first appears. There have been some cracking winners (one in particular!) but also some really poor results at short prices.
It’s very difficult to obtain the price that Andy quotes in his emails. In his advertising, he talks about making thousands from a day’s betting, so I imagine the sort of money he puts on might actually affect the odds, which would explain a lot. So he gets his nice prices but anyone following his service will not!
One thing Andy does which worries me is: he advises single bets for the day, then combines them for doubles, trixies and so on. Now, when everything goes to plan, this approach can obviously be lucrative. But when it doesn’t, you end up losing even more on the day.
We had one brilliant each-way double that Andy also backed as singles, that together delivered £168.91 of profit. Now when you think, we finished up by £138.14, you see what a high-risk strategy this is. When it comes off, it makes your month! But otherwise, the outcome would be very different.
The complete results log for my first month with Andy Bell is as follows.
|No. of bets||86|
|Profit at prices obtained at the bookie||£138.14|
|Profit at Betfair SP||£93.23|
|%age Profit at bookie prices taken||138.14%|
|Profit at Betfair SP||93.23%|
|Strike rate at bookie prices taken||34.88%|
|Strike rate at Betfair SP||37.21%|
We’re using a 100 point bank, and staking between £1 and £10 per bet (i.e. 1 point = £1). And we finished 138 points ahead at the bookies, even at the prices I obtained (generally not as good as Andy’s).
So obviously I’m not complaining – how could you after a profit like that? – but it seems to me that one or bets are going to define how well this service performs in the long-term.
When Andy goes for his multiples, and they come off, it’s party time. Otherwise – well, we’d have lost money.
Whether this high-risk approach is sustainable as a long-term strategy… well, I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
I’ll be back in a month or so’s time with my next report on Andy Bell Racing….
Introduction: 11th June 2014
It’s Lucy here, with my second new trial in as many days. 🙂
And this time we are going to have a look at a service that has been running on the Betfan platform for over a year, and creating quite a few waves whilst doing so.
It comes with a big, swirly graphic, lots of bold lettering, and quite a few equally bold pronouncements!
So ladies and gentlemen, without further ado, I give you…
Andy Bell Racing currently sits third in Betfan’s own all-time proofing chart, claiming over 600 points’ profit since May 2013.
Now of course, it’s easy to be sceptical about system providers’ own results.
But the flipside of this statement is also true. Namely that, nobody who makes claims like these expects to be instantly believed.
Which is why review sites are often approached by service providers, precisely so that they can showcase their wares.
You have to admire their confidence.
This is a service that is very sure of its ability to deliver attractive returns.
And the bold claims don’t stop there….
Andy claims to be very well connected in the horse racing industry, including having once been “very friendly with [legendary punter] Dave Nevison at the time when he was at his peak”.
And this was, apparently, no mere passing acquaintance. Andy says that, “Dave and I … had 3 very good seasons”.
You can read more about Dave Nevison in this article from the Guardian newspaper.
Now Andy is realistic enough to acknowledge that, “you must find my opening statements hard to swallow” (indeed we do, Andy!), but that doesn’t stop him going on to say that, “I win more cash than you could ever possibly imagine”.
I am capable of imagining an awful lot. 🙂
So, when Betfan asked me whether I’d like to run a trial, you will be unsurprised to hear I jumped at the chance…
The plan, as per usual, is to run a 200 bet test, which I expect will take around four or five months.
I am going to ask Paul to track performance at both the bookies and at Betfair SP… which could get a bit involved, as both straight win and each-way tips are supplied.
I really like the sound of Andy Bell Racing.
I happen to believe that good tipsters (or ‘horse racing consultants‘, as Andy’s sales page rather depressingly calls them) are made not born.
So, assuming Andy really did work closely with Dave Nevison for all that time, there is every reason to suppose he learned a thing or two.
We shall see!