Just who is the mystery tipster?
I have been approached by a certain gentleman who wishes to remain anonymous but who would like to proof his tips to my site.
The individual in question has been involved with horse racing for years, and has, in my view, something different to offer.
The idea is that our Mystery Tipster will publish his tips here for four weeks, thus allowing you / me / anyone to monitor his progress.
I have an idea it might be an entertaining ride, so have agreed to do it….. Partly out of interest and a certain respect for the Tipster’s skills….
….and partly out of sheer devilment. 
Our man will add his tips by noon each day as comments below, then follow up with results later in the day.
There is also a staking plan to get your head round, so he will explain that too – then we are up and running.
Oh – and before you ask – no, these are not my tips.
There really is another person behind this…
The Mystery Tipster.
And it’s all very exciting….
It starts Sunday, 8th July, 2012.
Don’t miss it.
Lucy xx
;
Hi Everyone,
Today’s mystery tip is in the Brazilian Campeonato football league for this evening.
I have a record of 40 consecutive winning tips with a longest losing run of 2, and last year made a total return of 80% from my entire initial investment using this strategy. This is a long term betting & football trading system, and you should bet sensibly with money allotted just for this strategy.
Ponte Preta vs Palmeirias
Kick Off: 10.30pm GMT
Bet Amount: Usual stake for this bet would be 5% liability of betting bank set aside for these bets.
Ponte Preta are in very good form having recently beaten top sides such as Corinthians and Botafogo. They have only one loss in the last five matches, which was against form side Vasco Da Gama, and have only been beaten once at home so far this season out the three games played, which was against Athletico Minerio the league leaders.
Palmeirias have lost all three of their away games, scoring two but conceding five on their travels. They remain focused on winning the Brazilian Cup second leg which is on Thursday, as they currently lead 2-0 and will not be playing a full strength squad for this game with that one in mind. This I feel gives our home side an extra advantage.
Tip: Lay Palmeirias @4.5 or less, but no higher than 6. If you want to trade this game and not leave it to be a simple lay bet, should the home team go ahead at any time trade out and green up for an early hedged profit. This will usually be for around 70% of the original lay bet return if a goal goes in for Ponte Preta, as the odds to then back Palmeirias will shoot up. There should also be plenty of liquidity in the market closer to kick off for everyone to get matched.
Good luck
Mystery Tipster
Hi Everyone,
A nice win for our mystery tip last night, with Ponte Preta taking an early lead and then going on to win the game 1-0! I enjoy tipping in Brazil unlike a lot of other football tipsters, I’ve written a blog about it on my website which I’ll point you towards when/if Lucy reveals my identity at some point.
The simple fact only one away team won in the Campeonato over the entire weekend makes it a very appealing league for my lay bet & trading strategy due to this bias. Looking at today there is no football on offer for us to get stuck in to, so I’m looking to the UK Horse racing instead.
I run various horse racing systems on my website, and one service uses something called dutching. If you’re not familiar with this type of betting there is a plethora of info on the net about it, just Google, what is dutching, or how to dutch. All you usually need is a bet calc, then you’re off and ready to dutch whatever market you’re betting in. Today though I’ve made it even simpler as we’re placing what’s called a dutch multiple, although you can of course place these as singles as well.
In UK horse racing you can use the Betfair multiples section to back multiple horses in a race, covering the ones you want and think will go on to possibly win in each race. You can add up to eight races at a time selecting the horses in each race, which can then backed as dutch singles or a multiple bet. So if you had eight races, it would be eight lines of single win bets should any of the horses you chose win each of the races. Or you can also back them as an eight line multiple, so as long as one of the horses in each of your chosen races wins, the combined odds of each dutched race gives you you’re multiple return, or returns for the winning lines if backed as singles.
Sound complicated!?
Well here is the practical side of what you are actually going to do today in one easy paragraph.
Firstly go to the multiples section, find the first race from the selected two races in my bet slip below. Ayre at 2pm, and choose the two recommended horses Megamunch and Opt Out, now go to the second race and choose the seven horses I recommend in that race. As you can see you can now back them as singles or a double in the bet slip, and that’s how to get combined odds dutch bets using Betfair multiples, simple!
Today I’ll be backing these two as singles and a multiple, the multiple should return approximately 30% as it’s calculated to Betfair SP, so it will depend what price the horses go off at before we know the exact returns, but based on the current odds this is what I estimate. We’re looking at approximately 20% for the first race, and then 10% for the second.
If we lose one of our horses from the bet as a non runner, then as long as one of our remaining selected horse goes on to win we will get a higher return, whereas if we lose one of our non selected horses, depending on the number of runners and how it affects the dynamic of the race, will depend how much the bet will be reduced. It’s done to SP so the return is of course dependant on a few factors leading up to the race itself.
Right then, here is my recommended dutch multiple for today’s action. This is very much a long term strategy as some days you will have returns over evens, and other day’s as low as 20% on the multiple, but this is just a brief insight into the service I provide and various betting opportunities available to you when placing dutch bets. So I hope today we see a comfortable winner from these two today, and you get a taste for other betting styles other than norm win and place.
a) Ayr 2pm – Megamunch or Opt Out
b) Ripon 8.50pm – Naburn or The Tiger or Centrifgual or Sunnybridge Boy or Horatian or Monzino or Cathedral
Good luck
Mystery Tipster
Hi Everyone,
Yesterday’s dutch multiple won nicely returning a little more than expected due to a non runner in the second race from one of our selections, and brought home a decent 33% profit.
This is my last day as guest mystery tipper, I hope you’ve enjoyed the profits so far and different betting styles. I may get invited back for another stint in the near future if I play my cards right with Lucy, and today’s tip wins of course!
Today we have a Lay bet from our Lay of The Day selections. This bet is a flat stakes bet, not fixed liability, so bet with an amount you can afford from your laying betting bank. The thing with this one today it’s partly about getting the lay at the right price to control our risk. If the horses price doesn’t come down to where I think it may do before the off, then it’s a void no bet and Betfair won’t place it.
There are a few other horses from stables that traditional do well in this race, which I feel could take on the favourite and give us a winning lay bet if we get matched at the right price.
UTTOXETER Soft to Heavy (overnight)
9-15 Class 6 NH Flat Race (4 to 6-Y-O) 2m (2/10)
Lay SOLWAY DANDY, but set SP lay odds to accept the lay bet no higher than 2.5. It’s currently 2.92 at the time of posting this tip, but with over 10 hrs to go before race time.
Good luck
Mystery Tipper
Our mystery tipster will be back on 1st August… I can be very persuasive.
Apparently he insists on betting-free holidays??
Lx
Hi Everyone,
It would be great to start a new month with a winning lay bet, and today we have one for this evening at Redcar in a competitive handicap race. It all depends whether we get matched at the right price of course, and if our lay goes on to lose the race.
REDCAR Good (overnight)
5-40 Class 6 Handicap 1m (2/10)
Lay FLORIO VINCITORE, set SP to take the bet no higher than 3.0. It’s currently at 2.88, and I expect it to move in to about 2.50 which is ideally what we’re looking for on this lay.
Good luck
Well Florio Vincitore won by an impressive 4.5 lengths, but we escaped without a penalty, as the BSP was 3.36, so it was a no-bet.
This really is a powerful feature of Betfair SP laying, and one that all layers should use. We have seen its value during our ongoing Dreamlays trial, which also insists on sub-3.0 prices.
The Mystery Tipster will be back next Wednesday..
Lx
Hi Lucy,
Quick one today ….
BRIGHTON Good (overnight)
2-50 Class 6 Handicap 6f (1/10)
Lay KASHMIRI STAR, set SP to take the lay bet no higher than 3.5, as it’s currently at 2.6 to lay.
Good luck!
Well our Mystery Man finally got one wrong, with Kasmiri Star coming home in front at 3.07.
Next tip will be on
Wednesday, 15thFriday, 17th when we will also update our bank balance.The slight delay of a couple of days is simply down to our man’s refusal to supply tips when he cannot see anything suitable in the market. Picky or what!!
Lx
So – we have a dutch bet from our severely non-Dutch Mystery Tipster today. Indeed, it’s so good, I’ve given him his own page!!!
Lx