Stats-based Football Trading – Joanne’s Live Tips

There is an ever-increasing number of websites devoted to football statistics, one or two of which I intend to look at over the next few weeks.   One of the things I really would like to understand is whether or not it’s worth paying for stats.    I would be interested to hear readers’ own views, including their own favourite stats sites.   There are certainly quite a few free ones around.

One that I use a lot is Soccer Stats.   It is hard to imagine how much more comprehensive a paid-for service could be than this site….  It allows you to review the performance of individual teams from all over the world, as well as to analyse broad trends, including (something which is important for traders especially) timing information.

But anyway – I digress.

For I have been in correspondence with a lady called Joanne, who operates her own stats-based backing system, concentrating exclusively on the Under 3.5 Goals market.  (As a side note, I must say, I do approve of people who focus on micro-markets.  This is one way of quickly developing expertise).

Joanne’s basic approach appears to be to back so many games that the occasional unpredictability of football is ‘smoothed out’ by the sheer number of bets.

This approach also has the happy side-effect of making a trial quite quick to do!    Which certainly appeals to me.  :)

I do hope Joanne will add her own comments below as we proceed, but, to get things started, here are the tips she sent me this morning.  They are based on a £50 level stake, so the profit total in the right column represents the target she is aiming for after commission.

 

LEAGUE KO MATCH GROSS ODDS NET ODDS £ (+/-)
BUNDESLIGA 14:30 Augsburg vs Dusseldorf 1.33 1.314 £15.68
ENG PREMIER 15:00 Southampton vs Wigan 1.35 1.333 £16.63
ENG CHAMPIONSHIP 15:00 Brighton vs Barnsley 1.31 1.295 £14.73
ENG CHAMPIONSHIP 15:00 Blackburn vs Leicester 1.37 1.352 £17.58
ENG CHAMPIONSHIP 15:00 Huddersfield vs Burnley 1.34 1.323 £16.15
ENG LEAGUE 1 15:00 Bournemouth vs Preston 1.29 1.276 £13.78
ENG LEAGUE 1 15:00 Shrewsbury vs Tranmere 1.28 1.266 £13.30
ENG LEAGUE 1 15:00 Leyton Orient vs Hartlepool 1.34 1.323 £16.15
ENG LEAGUE 1 15:00 Doncaster vs Crawley 1.35 1.333 £16.63
SCO PREMIER 15:00 Hibernian vs St.Johnstone 1.28 1.266 £13.30
ROM LIGA 1 17:00 Otelul Galati vs Gloria Bistrita 1.25 1.238 £11.88
SERIE A 17:00 Fiorentina vs Udinese 1.28 1.266 £13.30
AUS BUNDESLIGA 17:30 Austria Wien vs Wacker Innsbr. 1.38 1.361 £18.05
GAMBRINUS LIGA 18:00 Slovacko vs Teplice 1.22 1.209 £10.45
SEGUNDA DIVISION 18:00 Rec De Huelva vs Mirandes 1.25 1.238 £11.88
SEGUNDA DIVISION 18:00 Sabadell vs Villareal 1.29 1.276 £13.78
SWISS SUPER LEAGUE 18:45 Grasshoppers vs Thun 1.37 1.352 £17.58
LIGUE 1 ORANGE 19:00 Reims vs Sochaux 1.25 1.238 £11.88
SERIE B 19:45 Padova vs Virtus Lanciano 1.26 1.247 £12.35
ARG TORNEO INC 22:15 Argentinos Jrs vs Godoy Cruz 1.19 1.181 £9.03





£284.05

 

Joanne adds,

“I usually trade out at 1.01/1.02 and green up, but to be honest that’s just for my own peace of mind and makes calculations more complex when totting up profits. Long term… trading out probably costs me money but going green always leaves me with a satisfying feeling!   

Of course many people just trade the opening minutes of a game for a few ticks… but for this particular strategy I will borrow some of your words… “FIRE & FORGET!”

So – for the purposes of testing the system, we will assume we are not trading.    The tips are provided without any guarantee at all of course… Basically, they are as new to me as they are to you.    But it should be interesting, and hopefully profitable.   :)

I will attach my final results spreadsheet in the comments section below.
Lx

 

 

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Comments

  1. Joanne says

    Afternoon All,

    Firstly a big thank you to Lucy for posting the information above on my behalf. I just wanted to give a brief update at HALF-TIME shall we say as 10 of the 20 matches have been completed.

    Firstly the L Orient – Hartlepool match was postponed due to traffic therefore nothing to report there. Moving on to the other games let’s start with me getting my pants pulled down by Brighton…5-1!! Not a good start and the bet was over before the oranges… very disappointing. Otherwise all fine and currently showing a profit of just over £73 on the day… I’m hoping for a similar result this evening and hoping to close in on around £150 today – which would represent an increase in wealth of 15% on the opening betting bank of £1000.

    Any comments/thoughts much appreciated.

    Joanne

    • Lucy says

      Joanne

      Welcome to my site! It’s shaping up to be an encouraging afternoon and evening.

      One slight difficulty in testing your system is that Betfair does not offer an “SP” for football. So I am getting slightly different results from you, but am still £69.23 up, allowing for 5% Betfair commission. (However, this is partly because I failed to get the Blackburn v Leicester bet on until the game had started, and found myself chasing rapidly diminishing prices! Note to self – get organised in future!)

      I have managed to get all this evening’s bets on in good time, and in one or two cases, I think I’ve secured slightly better prices than you.

      Anyway, I will post a full spreadsheet update either tonight or in the morning…

      Lx

  2. Joanne says

    Yes as with any market the prices will fluctuate and it is quite often the case in these markets that as K/O approaches odds increase to meet over-round. I tend to put in some orders a tick or two above the current order and then go back in close to the off.

    The lack of a definitive SP does make it a little trickier in terms of paper trailing – the odds above were correct at the time of writing.

    In terms of placing bets (due to no SP betting) one could always employ a BOT or of course bet in real time if they have the luxury of betting full time. The best thing about football is that 99% of matches are over the weekend or during the evening – which makes it viable even for those considering a second income.

    May all your wishes be winners

    Joanne

    • Lucy says

      Final Results

      Well that was all very satisfying. Joanne supplied 20 tips in total, all Back bets in the Under 3.5 Goals market. We ended up with 18 winners, 1 loser, and 1 postponed game.

      The total profit, for £50 stakes, at the odds I obtained, was £200.80, so Joanne delivered a return of 20%, rather than the 15% she was aiming for. As noted above, the profit would have been slightly higher had I managed to get my Blackburn v Leicester bet placed prior to kick-off!

      A full results spreadsheet is available for download here. All results assume Betfair commission of 5%.

      So when do we do it all again Joanne?? :)

      Lx

  3. Joanne says

    Morning All,

    Apologies for the delay… after a rather busy day of Racing and Football yesterday and a little MOTD catch up this morning… I just thought I would let the Sunday morning markets settle.

    Glad to see no dramas yesterday and to answer the question… YES plenty more today but I will let Lucy update with further details of today’s selections.

    Joanne

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