There is an ever-increasing number of websites devoted to football statistics, one or two of which I intend to look at over the next few weeks. One of the things I really would like to understand is whether or not it’s worth paying for stats. I would be interested to hear readers’ own views, including their own favourite stats sites. There are certainly quite a few free ones around.
One that I use a lot is Soccer Stats. It is hard to imagine how much more comprehensive a paid-for service could be than this site…. It allows you to review the performance of individual teams from all over the world, as well as to analyse broad trends, including (something which is important for traders especially) timing information.
But anyway – I digress.
For I have been in correspondence with a lady called Joanne, who operates her own stats-based backing system, concentrating exclusively on the Under 3.5 Goals market. (As a side note, I must say, I do approve of people who focus on micro-markets. This is one way of quickly developing expertise).
Joanne’s basic approach appears to be to back so many games that the occasional unpredictability of football is ‘smoothed out’ by the sheer number of bets.
This approach also has the happy side-effect of making a trial quite quick to do! Which certainly appeals to me.
I do hope Joanne will add her own comments below as we proceed, but, to get things started, here are the tips she sent me this morning. They are based on a £50 level stake, so the profit total in the right column represents the target she is aiming for after commission.
|LEAGUE||KO||MATCH||GROSS ODDS||NET ODDS||£ (+/-)|
|BUNDESLIGA||14:30||Augsburg vs Dusseldorf||1.33||1.314||£15.68|
|ENG PREMIER||15:00||Southampton vs Wigan||1.35||1.333||£16.63|
|ENG CHAMPIONSHIP||15:00||Brighton vs Barnsley||1.31||1.295||£14.73|
|ENG CHAMPIONSHIP||15:00||Blackburn vs Leicester||1.37||1.352||£17.58|
|ENG CHAMPIONSHIP||15:00||Huddersfield vs Burnley||1.34||1.323||£16.15|
|ENG LEAGUE 1||15:00||Bournemouth vs Preston||1.29||1.276||£13.78|
|ENG LEAGUE 1||15:00||Shrewsbury vs Tranmere||1.28||1.266||£13.30|
|ENG LEAGUE 1||15:00||Leyton Orient vs Hartlepool||1.34||1.323||£16.15|
|ENG LEAGUE 1||15:00||Doncaster vs Crawley||1.35||1.333||£16.63|
|SCO PREMIER||15:00||Hibernian vs St.Johnstone||1.28||1.266||£13.30|
|ROM LIGA 1||17:00||Otelul Galati vs Gloria Bistrita||1.25||1.238||£11.88|
|SERIE A||17:00||Fiorentina vs Udinese||1.28||1.266||£13.30|
|AUS BUNDESLIGA||17:30||Austria Wien vs Wacker Innsbr.||1.38||1.361||£18.05|
|GAMBRINUS LIGA||18:00||Slovacko vs Teplice||1.22||1.209||£10.45|
|SEGUNDA DIVISION||18:00||Rec De Huelva vs Mirandes||1.25||1.238||£11.88|
|SEGUNDA DIVISION||18:00||Sabadell vs Villareal||1.29||1.276||£13.78|
|SWISS SUPER LEAGUE||18:45||Grasshoppers vs Thun||1.37||1.352||£17.58|
|LIGUE 1 ORANGE||19:00||Reims vs Sochaux||1.25||1.238||£11.88|
|SERIE B||19:45||Padova vs Virtus Lanciano||1.26||1.247||£12.35|
|ARG TORNEO INC||22:15||Argentinos Jrs vs Godoy Cruz||1.19||1.181||£9.03|
“I usually trade out at 1.01/1.02 and green up, but to be honest that’s just for my own peace of mind and makes calculations more complex when totting up profits. Long term… trading out probably costs me money but going green always leaves me with a satisfying feeling!
Of course many people just trade the opening minutes of a game for a few ticks… but for this particular strategy I will borrow some of your words… “FIRE & FORGET!”
So – for the purposes of testing the system, we will assume we are not trading. The tips are provided without any guarantee at all of course… Basically, they are as new to me as they are to you. But it should be interesting, and hopefully profitable.