Oddschecker Bet Monitor – 3 Months In – Interesting!

If you’re not getting results with your betting, it’s always tempting to try something a bit different.

And as we recently seemed to have been testing a whole series of mediocre products here at Lay Back, I decided, back in February, that it was time to test out a little idea that had been suggested to me by Maxi at Tipsters Empire.

In short, why not try “following the money” and betting on whatever it was that the mass of other punters thought looked promising?

Specifically, Maxi’s proposal was to use Oddschecker’s free Bet Monitor pie charts to make horse racing selections.

Wherever the ‘most popular’ selections were not also the favourite, she suggested putting a single point on the mount in question at Betfair SP.

Well, that was three months ago.

So… how is my trial of Oddschecker’s free Bet Monitor going?

Read on to find out….

Oddschecker Bet Monitor
Oddschecker Bet Monitor

So far, very well indeed.

I’ve put on over 500 bets and have grown my betting bank by 40% at Betfair SP.

I’m using two banks of 100 points each:

  • Bank 1 – putting one point on whatever price I can find in the open market, usually at the bookies
  • Bank 2 – betting a point on the same selection at Betfair SP, and allowing 5% for winner’s commission.

And the results, as you can see, have been very satisfactory:

Price taken Betfair SP
Profit £ 322.50  £ 403.45 
     
New Bank £ 1,322.50  £ 1,403.46 
     
%age bank Growth 32.25% 40.35%
Wins(races w/ profit) 101 101
Bets 508 508
Strike rate(races w/ profit) 19.88% 19.88%
ROI 5.95% 7.44%

Even better, the performance graph reveals a daily experience that isn’t unpleasant to live with:

Oddschecker Bet Monitor - Performance
Oddschecker Bet Monitor – Performance

Yes, the strike rate isn’t marvellous at a shade under 20%, but overall this completely free method has steadily delivered.

You can read the full results log here.

Summary

I’m excited about this. Yet I do have to sound a word of warning.

The strike rate is low and the average odds quite high at around 8. Both of these things imply serious volatility.

Also, the higher the average price, the more bets are required to establish statistical significance. 

Which translated means: we need to do more bets to be sure.

I’m going for 1000 in total. And, as I’m  winning more at Betfair SP anyway, I’m just going to bet at the exchange in future.

I’ll be back with my closing thoughts when my 1000 bets are done.

Lucy

ps Why not get a copy of my free PDF on making £1000 a month from betting? It’s easy to understand, even if you’re a novice, and you can get free copy now just by clicking here!

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Comments

  1. Lee Rothery says

    Hello Lucy,

    It looks pretty promising this however can you point me in the right direction of the graph section on Oddschecker?

    I am struggling to find it for some reason!

    Thank you,
    Lee

    • Lucy says

      Lee

      It doesn’t appear every day.

      It’s usually immediately below the table of odds for a particular race. But it wasn’t there today (Sunday) and so far it hasn’t appeared for tomorrow.

      It would be galling if it disappeared altogether!

      Lucy

      • Lee Rothery says

        Oh I see, I will have a look today to see if I can see it, I have seen it in the past but thought it was hiding somewhere, thanks for getting back to me.

        Lee

  2. SueD says

    Just wondered if the time of day you checked Oddschecker would affect the result – ie first thing in the morning or just before the race? I assume you flip through them all at the same time or could be quite time consuming.

    Great results so far – Alex Hammond should be following :)

    • Lucy says

      Sue,

      I normally start within 30 minutes of the first race of the day and yes, I tend to go through all the races in one sitting because that works best for me.

      However if you’re in a position to check each race closer to the off this might be a good idea as logic would suggest that more bets that have been placed the truer the picture provided by the chart.

      Lucy

  3. says

    I’ve noticed that the graph is below some of the football matches, so the graph is still there, I’m just not seeing it under the horse racing. I assumed it would show up closer to the races starting.

    • SueD says

      Steve, you need to go on to the page showing all odds with all the races listed – scroll down and it is underneath (a pie chart, the favourite coloured yellow) alongside the details of the runners.

  4. Gerry says

    SueD,
    also the graph on Betfair itself gives you a good indication, just click the graph icon next to the horses name. If it’s suddenly going down in a straight line just before the off, someone knows something we don’t and the cash is suddenly piling on that horse.

    • SueD says

      Gerry
      I have thought of using the graph for backing and possibly subsequently laying – but knowing my luck it would probably have dipped to it’s lowest level as I placed my bets!

  5. Jimmy says

    Interesting so far Lucy. What happens if a selection was say 2nd or 3rd fav and gets backed into fav? Are those included in the results?

    Maybe results could be improved if say you have a minimum odds requirement?

    • Lucy says

      Jimmy

      The rules are simple really. If the horse with the largest ‘slice of the pie’ on Oddschecker is not the favourite at the moment that I look, I bet on it.

      If things change thereafter – e.g. second favourite becomes favourite or whatever – I wouldn’t know as I don’t look again.

      The main issue I have is that the average odds of selections is so high that, mathematically, it drives up the number of bets required to achieve statistical significance. I have a spreadsheet somewhere that helps work this out but the upshot is that the longer your odds are, the more bets you need.

      I’m therefore reluctant to modify my selection criteria until I’ve got the basic idea tested out first. However, feel free to let me know how you get on if you have a play with it! :)

      Lucy

      • Lee Rothery says

        I have started to paper trade this yesterday, so far not too bad:
        4 bets and 1 won
        +5.4 pts

        I will update again here once I have done day 2

        • Lucy says

          Lee

          My strike rate is around 20% so do expect some tortuous losing runs.

          I’ve also had long runs of second places: they’re enormous fun too…

          Lucy

          • Lee Rothery says

            Cheers Lucy, well no money is going on them, I’m just going to go off the BSP and keep a log, be interesting to see how it goes actually, would you advise a time in which to check the charts? Todays selections were done at 11am.

            I’m not sure if perhaps a 1pm check would throw up different selections, do you know where the charts get the data from or is an accumulation of all various bookies?

          • Lucy says

            I think selections can change during the day. But I’ve not noticed it happening much.

            I start my checks around 30 minutes before the racing by which time the market has presumably started to settle.

            I don’t think Oddschecker publish where they get their data from but my guess is that it’s their own: i.e. based on clickthroughs from their site.

            Lucy

    • Lucy says

      Sue

      Yes I should have plugged in place BSPs but didn’t. It can be done retrospectively (groan) but not keen, frankly!

      Lucy

  6. Lee Rothery says

    Sue,

    The same way as you suggest I have slightly altered my selection criteria to have a minimum odds of 3 so if it carries the most market share and is above 3, it comes a pick, however if there is a bigger price one just lower say 26% compared to the market leader at 28% I would go with the higher odds

  7. Gerry says

    Hi all,
    I’ve just been reading on a forum, a chap was talking to a guy about this oddschecker pie chart. This guy said it’s a load of nonsense as oddschecker only go on about 20 bets. So this othe guy contacted oddschecker to find out the truth.

    Below is a part of the reply from someone in authority at oddschecker….

    The data is not imported from other sites as to do so would be a very complicated process. The pie charts therefore only depict bets placed via oddschecker. 1000+ bets are easily enough to gauge the overall feel of a market & I would not expect the percentages to be much different at 100,000 bets or even 1,000,000.

    So it would appear to be a good guide to follow, onwards and upwards then!…… :-)

    • Lee Rothery says

      Cheers Gerry, I am testing this at the moment, once I have updated the results from today I will give an update :)

      • Gerry says

        No problem Lee, yep keep us up to date, got a little interested in this. Tell you what I did notice also, while checking the odds on these pie chart horses with the most bets, quite a few arbs appeared. I was watching a few horses as we got near the off. Watching Betfair odds then checking the bookies, the odds were boucing all over, could have had quite a few risk free bets…. :-)

        I know Lucy has a lot of new testing going on and very busy, so understand why she’s having to go through them in one setting to fit everything in. I do feel though that the nearer the off you can leave this, the stronger the percentage might be to give an even clearer picture, time will tell.

  8. Lee Rothery says

    Well, to make it easy on myself as I am testing a number of things I have just used BSP and results now look like this:

    27 BETS
    6 WON
    21 LOST
    +12.07 pts

    Not too bad

  9. steve says

    Hi Lee
    Interesting

    So in the end are you just doing one sitting at 11am or at 1pm also?

    Thanks Steve

    • Lee Rothery says

      Ill be honest I don’t have a fixed time as my schedule doesn’t allow it but generally before 12 yeah.

      I have also slighlty amended the criteria too.

      (Odds 3 minimum and the market share has to be clear so a horse with a slightly better market share is not included unless the odds are huge in which case I will include it)

  10. Gerry says

    Hi,
    just a little observation, I checked all Lucy’s results just looking at the prices taken. If Lucy had not gone above odds of 12, there were 17 losing bets all above odds of 12 and not one winner above just looking at the prices taken. ( i think) my eyes went blurred after checking several times. :-) That would have increased the profit a hell of a lot just going on the prices taken. ( I think!….. )

    Perhaps someone might just like to check… :-)

  11. Lee Rothery says

    It’s an interesting obersvation I feel but with such a small sample it’s almost impossible to be representative.

  12. Gerry says

    Well I get it to 18 losing bets now above odds of 12 and no winners above 12 on the prices taken.

    I’m not a horsey guy, football is my think, but I think Lucy could be on to something here, time will tell.

  13. marilyn says

    Checking the posts live markets/most bet, a few minutes before the off might be a way of qualifying the selections?

  14. ben speed says

    I have a chart somewhere which has been pretty accurate over many years. It shows that a strike rate of 20% would have a longest losing run of 30.

  15. Harry says

    Thanks for the info on this Lucy.

    My favourite method of betting is dutching and as a matter of interest I always check the Oddschecker pie charts as part of my selection process. Works for me if the odds are okay to be able to cover something like 75% (or 3/4 of the pie chart). I look to make somewhere between 10/25% per dutch bet using either £20 or £50 stakes (depending on gut) and do pretty well.

    There is the odd outsider who wins but I stick to handicap races and exclude Class 6/7 and 5f and 6f races . Today for instance I placed 7 dutch bets and won them all with an overall profit of £44.37. I can provide a Betfair Profit and Loss screenshot if required. I very seldom show a loss at the end of a day and I don’t go chasing losses and am well up overall.

    Sometimes I play around with the Betfair dutching tool so that I can win more if one of the top three wins and break even (more or less) if say the fourth or 5th favourite happens to win.

    It’s hard for me to spell out exactly as things vary somewhat – e.g. number of horses in race etc. but again as an example one of the races I won today (Nott. 17.00) had 13 runners and with a £50 stake I bet on 9 of them and made a profit of £11.62. Small beer for a £50 stake you may say but I like to be as safe as I can – especially as this was to be the last race I was gong to bet on today and did not want to undo the good of the previous 6 wins.

  16. Hilary Roberts says

    Hi Harry with your dutching method are you using the favourite or leaving out? Many thanks for sharing.

    • Harry says

      I always include the favourite but tend not to go for races where the favourite is a very short price. i.e. odds of 2.0 or less as this can make a dutch bet expensive to win a reasonable amount.

  17. Neil says

    Hi Harry tried your Dutching system today 5 races 5 wins. I use fairbot which has a dutching tool that places the bets so no messing around.
    Many thanks

    Neil

    ps lucy as usual you are a star

    • Harry says

      Very well done Neil. Doesn’t work out all the time but if anyone knows of anything quicker or easier I’d be glad to hear about it.

  18. Fixy says

    Hi Harry – what form of Dutching are you using ? ie

    (1) As you add more runners your potential profit drops / liability increases ?

    (2) Fixed Liability ?

    (3) Target Profit ( which I think is fairbot ??? )

    Can’t rember what the ‘type’ or ‘types’ of dutching are on Betfair – duhh !

  19. Harry says

    I bet either £20 or £50 per dutch depending on how much I want to risk on any particular race. You can use the free dutching calculator on the Oddschecker site (under tools) to work out the stake for each horse. Or quicker and easier just use Betfair.

    To use Betfair, just click on the blue back buttons for the horses you want to include in a race, then click on the small “stake” button just above and to the right of the first horse’s odds over on the right side. Enter your stake and click enter. This does not actually place the bet at this stage, and interestingly, it shows the percentage book. If you are happy, click on the yellow “Place Bets” button.

    One important point here is that sometimes, particularly near the off, the odds may have dropped on one or more of your selections when you click the “Place Bets” button and the bet (s) may not be matched. If this happens it’s a good sign in a way as the market reckons those selections have a better chance of winning than a very short time ago. The important thing here is to quickly decrease the odds to match those available for the selections affected before the odds drop further and make sure you place all the bets you intended.

  20. neil says

    I have been using Betfair and Dutching for a good number of years and this is the first time I have come across the dutching gaget.. Thanks Harry.

    As I am only placing small stakes to begin I will continue with Fairbot until more confident about selection.
    Incidently you mention earlier that £11.62 is small beer from £50 stake, I would be very grateful for that kind of return on any trade.

  21. Harry says

    It occurred to me that I maybe should have explained the Betfair dutching method a little bit clearer than above for new Betfair dutching users when I said:-

    “click on the small stake button just above and to the right of the first horse’s odds over on the right side”.

    I probably should have said instead, click on the small print that says Stake [?] just above and to the right of the first horse’s odds over on the right hand side. There is no actual button as such. When you enter the stake amount that you want to bet overall, Betfair automatically calculates how much to allocate to each horse so that the same amount would be won if any of the chosen selections wins.

    Worth re-reading the previous post along with this small revision and hopefully it will be clear..

    Hope that might help and trust that the posts I have made about this subject are all okay with you Lucy?

    • Lucy says

      Harry

      I’m interested in the subject but it is a bit off topic!

      Do you fancy writing a short piece (email or article or similar) and attaching a couple of screenshots? I could then upload as a guest article if you like.

      Lucy

  22. neil says

    I am waiting for the results of the 1000 bets from Lucy to see if it can fill in the gaps with Harrys system.
    Lucy do you do handicap and non-handi?
    I mainly trade football of an evening and I have the day free so hopefully this will prove to be successful.

    So far so good

    Neil

    • Lucy says

      Neil

      No, I don’t look at the race at all.

      Once I’ve set some criteria I try not to change them mid-trial otherwise the test data become confusing. I want to get to 1,000 bets without altering a thing. Then if still profitable I will review variants.

      Lucy

  23. neil says

    Lucy

    Good idea to keep things simple.

    Harry

    Fairbot dutching tool is very easy to use it also has a variable profit ratio facility so you can price some horses to break even .
    I mainly use it to trade the correct score market so all the score I select are covered with one click .

    You have to decide is it worth the fee.

    Sorry going on about the bot Lucy I don’t have anything to do with the company that sells it

    Neil

  24. Craig says

    I wonder how followers of this system choose to handle Non Runners? There are no shortage of bets, so Ignore has to be an option. However is it logical to take the largest running selection in the pie chart? Anyway, I am looking forward to the results in due course. Craig.

  25. Fixy says

    To be noted I reckon ( ? ) – Peaked at VERY start of Flat season, and in dis-array there after – until .. .

    Science of the bleed’in obvious that has just occurred to me !

  26. Fixy says

    Hi Neil, you mis-construe – that there was more. The ‘obvious’ was just that : ‘peak at very start of flat season’. Only took me 3 months & 11 days to notice !

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