Live Experiment — Trading Steamers!

It’s New Year 2014, and fresh hope surely springs anew in the heart of even the most grizzled punter.

I love all the positivity that a new year brings, and intend to ride the feeling for as long as possible!

But of course it’s only any use if we act on it, and do something different.

So… I propose to start a new little experiment, right here at Lay Back And Get Rich, which anybody is welcome to get involved in, should they so wish.

This is emphatically not a bet-the-farm opportunity. What I am proposing is a little idea that’s been buzzing around my mind for a while, but which I’ve never quite got round, you know, to actually doing.

So… how’s it going to work?

I intend to post two or three candidate horses every morning by 10.30am, that I believe will steam that day. I will then place the grand sum of £20 on each one, at whatever is the current best price I can find.

I may select from a bookie’s prices, or from the odds at the exchange. Obviously, BOG bookies may hold appeal, as they provide protection against drifters.

Once my back bet has been taken, I will immediately enter a lay for a slightly larger stake, at a price 20% below the backing odds. I will publish full details of both back and lay bets.

The larger stake on the lay will be designed to allow us to “green up”. Which – in case you are unfamiliar with the jargon – simply means “achieve the same profit irrespective of the result”.

A typical successful trade, based on two bets at the exchange and 5% commission, might therefore look like this:

Trading Steamers
Trading Steamers

But what if our lay bet doesn’t get matched?

Well, there are two options.

Either:

a) We enter lay bets with the option of taking SP at the off (i.e. we simply accept whatever the market gives us), and live with the consequences;

OR

b) We set the “Keep” option on our lay bets, and hope to get matched in-play.

I will be going with option B.

I expect the vast majority of my choices to match in-play, if not before, and am hoping we don’t get many drifters that subsequently under-perform…. as these are likely to cost me my full £20!

How many bets are we going for?

Well, it’s an experiment, so I shall aim at 100 paired trades (= 200 bets) to start with, then see how we’re getting on. If there’s life in the idea at the 100 trade point, I may do a few more.

The first trades will be published as comments immediately below this article by 10.30am on Friday, 3rd January 2014.

I stress that this is an experiment, so please – if you follow my trades, do so with the sorts of sums you couldn’t really care less about!

So… here’s to renewed hope, and a prosperous 2014 for us all!

Lucy

 

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Comments

  1. Lucy says

    Ghost River (not Rider!) came home in front, to add £2.35 to our trading profit, which now stands at +£28.54. Our backing-only balance advanced to a remarkable +£370.26.

    We have just four trades left, so I will be looking for no. 97 on Monday 9th June at 12 noon.

    Lucy

  2. Lucy says

    Just one today

    5.15 @ Newton Abbott

    BACK DETOUR AHEAD FOR £20 @ 1.9 @ WINNER.COM

    LAY FOR £22.75 @ 1.72

    X

  3. Lucy says

    Detour Ahead came home in front to give us our second winner in as many days, and further strengthen the suspicion that this is a backing system in disguise.

    We added £1.62 to our trading balance, to bring our profit to +£30.16 after 97 trades, representing bank growth of 15.1%.

    If we had not placed lay bets however, we would have made a profit of £388.26 at a strike rate of 32%.

    I will be back with next trade on Tuesday, 10th at noon.

    Lucy

  4. Steve says

    Nice win.
    Was there a rumour you would reveal your
    Selection method at 100

    Or did I imagine that?

    Regards Steve

    • Lucy says

      Steve,

      I promised to write it up after 100 trades if I thought it was worth doing.

      And since it seems to have turned, rather unexpectedly, into an interesting backing opportunity, then yes, I will. It’ll be done within a month.

      I’m still rather frustrated by the trading aspect, and think it could deliver a lot more. However, the backing bit has completely surprised me.

      It will be provided free for all subscribers of Gary’s Lays (still open for a few hours for £28 for 1 month, and £60 a quarter), and made available for £20 to anyone else who’d like a copy. :)

      Lucy

  5. Lucy says

    4.10 FONTWELL

    Back Spartilla for £20 @ 6 @ SJ, Boyle or Betway (all BOG bookies)

    Lay for £24.24 @ 5

    That’s it for today

    x

  6. Lucy says

    Spartilla drifted horribly to go off at a Betfair SP of 12.1! Fortunately for us, he matched in-play, to deliver a trading profit of £3.03 and bring the total return to £33.19.

    It’s a shame he didn’t win as his industry SP was 8, meaning we’d have added £43.04 to our trading bank! Such is the power of BOG.

    Straight backing would have cost us £20, and leaves our backing bank at +£368.26.

    I have two more trades left, and will be back at 12noon on Thursday with no. 99…

    Lucy

  7. Lucy says

    So much for being on time… there are no trades today as one of the basic selection criteria isn’t met anywhere.

    I’ll be back on Thursday at noon. I’d like to find two on the same day to wrap the trial up.

    x

  8. Lucy says

    Not For You finished 8 of 9 starters, but fortunately not before matching in-play to give us a trading profit of £2.89, and bringing our total banked returns to +£36.08 after 99 trades.

    I hope to be back with trade 100 on Tuesday 17th June at noon.

    Lucy

  9. Lucy says

    Here’s trade 100!

    STRATFORD, 5.10

    BACK ISTHEREADIFFERENCE WITH £20 @ 3.75 @ BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

    LAY FOR £23.81 @ 3.2

  10. Lucy says

    Well, I’m already matched, meaning I’ve locked in at least £2.62 profit, to bring my overall profit to £38.70 after 100 trades.

    As we have been working with a bank of £200, this very safe method has delivered total bank growth of 19.4% in under six months, at a trade strike rate of 89%.

    I do not consider this as betting but investing. Anyone can do it. It takes just a few minutes as there are only five selection criteria, all of which are extremely quick and easy to learn.

    No special software is required: you can do this entirely via your browser.

    You need to access just 3 websites but all required information is free. It requires no specialist knowledge of horse racing or form analysis.

    It is therefore suitable for novices.

    The very high strike rate also makes it easy to live with. I am targetting 40% growth per annum, which Warren Buffett would be very impressed with….

    I will be back with a final spreadsheet update after the race.

    Lucy

  11. Lucy says

    Thereisadifference contrived to lose a race that seemed all but won. I’m sure I saw him trade down to 1.12…

    It doesn’t affect our trading profits but means the backing-only bank finished with three straight losers.

    Some interesting statistics for the trial as follows:

    Profit To Date £38.70
    No.of trades 100
    Winning trades 89
    Trade strike rate 89%

    BSP below Back Price 58
    BSP below Back Price (age) 58.00%

    Lay matched pre-race 44
    Lay matched pre-race (%age) 44.00%
    Lays matched in-play as %age of bets going in-play 80.36%

    Profit if backing only to BSP 215.2
    Profit if backing only at prices taken 328.26
    Profit if backing only at prices taken (points) 16.4
    %age Bank Growth 19.4%

    No. of trades with back bet @ bookie 49
    Profit when backing at bookie 15.07 £0.31 profit per bookie trade
    No. of trades with back bet @ Betfair 51
    Profit when backing at Betfair 23.63 £0.46 profit per Betfair trade

    Bookie bets matched before race 25 51%
    Betfair bets matched before race 19 37%

    Win strike rate 31%

    The fact is, we’d have made a lot more money if we’d just backed all 100 selections, but I wouldn’t have been happy risking 10% of my bank on each selection if we’d been doing so.

    The strength of the trading approach is that it produces such a high strike rate that we can use much larger stakes… which in turn increases the scope for valuable capital growth.

    I regard this method as a credible bank-building strategy that anybody can follow. It involves no skill whatsoever. I could also have found more selections if I’d seriously applied myself.

    I have promised to write the method up and will do so shortly. In the meantime the full results log can be downloaded here.

    Lucy

  12. jassurin says

    Hi Lucy, according to the spreadsheet there are some trades where you lost your entire stake. Am I correct that those were trades where you did not get matched before the off and therefore tried to get matched in play?

    regards

    jassurin

  13. Alan says

    Hi Lucy,

    Like the look of this, ordered tonight.

    I note on your results spreadsheet on 14/4/14 that you have ‘short takes’ as being matched before the off but losing the full £20. Can you please clarify as I would have expected this to be a £3 win rather than a £20 loss, which makes your trial even more successful.

    Thanks,

    Alan

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