GUEST POST: a New Both Teams to Score System

bothteamstoscore
Both Teams To Score

In Lucy’s absence she’s invited me to guest post on laybackandgetrich.com about my new both teams to score system.

For those of you who don’t know me (which is probably most of you), my name is Dave Lenton and I run an online betting information and tips website called cheekypunter.com. It was when I started writing and researching the both teams to score tips articles for my site that I came up with the system I’m about to share with you.

NOTE: This system is still in a test phase and it’s important to point out that Lucy doesn’t endorse it… in fact until the results are in I’m not sure I do.

The purpose of this post is to explain the system and I’m hoping discuss the viability and profitability of it. It’s too early into the testing phase to see if it fully works or not. However I believe the logic behind the system is valid.

How the Betting System Was Born

My system doesn’t actually have a name yet so for now I guess we’ll call it ‘The Cheeky Punter Both Teams To Score System’, and yes I know, highly original and very catchy. It was born soon after I wrote this post on my blog over at Cheeky Punter.

After writing the post I was sure the Goals Galore promotion at Betfred was exploitable and set about trying to work out if the odds offered on the Goals Galore Bonus coupon at Betfred were offering punters a positive or negative expectation (promotion explained in full here).

I opened up an excel spreadsheet and listed all the games included on the coupon in one column and the odds of both teams scoring in those games in the adjacent column. What I found was very interesting. The range of odds available was between 1.60 and about 2.50.

So… it’s much more likely that some games on the coupon will end with both teams scoring than others.

How the System Works

The both teams to score system I’ve developed works by taking advantage of the games which are most likely to contain both teams scoring on the Goals Galore Bonus coupon at Betfred.

The easiest way for me to show you how exactly this happens is with an example from the first day of the 2013/2014 football season.

Here is the both teams to score post I put up for that day – http://www.cheekypunter.com/tips/both-teams-to-score-tips-august-17th-19th/

As you can see I went through the entire Goals Galore Bonus coupon at Betfred and found the odds of each team scoring. I then selected the five games with the shortest odds on both teams scoring and backed them as an accumulator.

The games and odds were:

Crawley vs. Rotherham: 1.65
West Bromwich v Southampton: 1.667
Bournemouth vs. Wigan Athletic: 1.667
FC Wacker vs. SV Ried: 1.667
Port Vale vs. Bradford: 1.667

By backing both teams to score in these five matches via the Goals Galore Bonus coupon I was getting odds of 17.0 meaning a £10 bet would return £170 in total.

Had I backed these five games as an accumulator at BetVictor (the site where I took the odds on each individual game from) I’d have got only £127.42 for my £10 bet.

Just by betting using the Betfred promotion I’d managed to secure myself a payout of £42.58 more.

Why the System Should Work

I guess this is the important part. Here’s why I think the system should work but also why there’s a chance it won’t. It’s on this section of my post I’d really like any comments to be focused.

If you flip a coin you have exactly a 50% chance of heads or tails so if you were betting on the flip to breakeven you’d need odds of even money. Anything less and you’d lose money long term. Anything more and you’d make money long term.

So let’s assume (which I believe I am right to) that the odds offered by BetVictor are very close to the true odds of both teams scoring in each game they price. Now there will be an edge built into these odds and it should be around 2% (which is pretty standard).

Meaning if the odds offered are 1.667 then the true odds should be 1.70. Therefore the true odds of my selections are:

Crawley vs. Rotherham: 1.68
West Bromwich v Southampton: 1.7
Bournemouth vs. Wigan Athletic: 1.7
FC Wacker vs. SV Ried: 1.7
Port Vale vs. Bradford: 1.7

And together as an accumulator a £10 bet would return £140.32. Well by backing at Betfred my £10 gets me £170 and therefore my bet has a positive expectation.

It’s like I’m backing the coin toss with odds of better than even money and with my system even if the bookmakers edge was 5% I’d still be on the right side of the wager.

So, what do you guys think? I’ll be running the both teams to score system as a test this season. I’m very interested to see how it turns out.

Dave

ps why not have a read of Lucy’s free 40-odd page ebook on making £1000 per month from betting? It is easy to follow, and you can get a copy now just by clicking this link!

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Comments

  1. grumpy says

    I believe Fred lost Millions in the early part of last season, which is probably why he reduced the odds on both his gg coupons.

    How do you work out the edge as being 2%?

  2. David L says

    Hey Grumpy – I’ve also heard that Betfred lost money for a good while when they first brought out the Goals Galore promotion.

    The 2% edge was just an estimate but I ran the number up to 5% and it still produced +EV bets.

  3. Andrew says

    Hi David

    Interesting post!

    Why don’t you compare the winnings side by side with Pinnacle for the trial? Pinnacle are the closest to true chance as you’re going to find, whereas Victor are probably far off the mark. I’m actively suspicious of anything a bookmaker promotes (unless it’s free bets or refunds etc). Like the ‘2-1 on Man U returns £80!!’ you see in shop windows, it normally means they are laying well below value.

    That being said, I love a positive expectancy to brighten up the day (who doesn’t), so if you are right I’ll take my metaphorical hat off to you.

    Good luck!

    Andrew

  4. Nathan says

    I’m not too sure about this!

    For one thing, sticking odds-on shots in accumulators represents terrible value. The suggested over-round of 2% is actually more like 5% on this type of “2- way” betting.

    Therefore, each selection will provide about 95% of the “true” odds. If we are going for a 5 fold acca, then we lose 5% five times over!

    In effect, the bet will be 0.95% x 0.95% x 0.95% x 0.95% x 0.95% = 0.77.38% of the true value, so less value for each extra selection. If placing 10 selections in the acca, the value is below 0.6 of the true chance for that outcome. (A bit like getting odds of only 5/1 for a 9/1 chance!)

    I’m sorry if this sounds confusing or complicated, but basically multiples provide poor value when compared to singles, although many punters will refuse to back singles at short prices yet will happily bundle them into even worse value multiple bets!

    Finally, if tempted to have an acca, why not look around for some of the bookie offers, such as stake refunds if only one team lets you down. Of course, these offers are only designed to tempt punters into placing multiple bets, knowing that most will fall 2 or 3 legs short, not just 1!

    Having said all of that, good luck to David with his 5 fold over the weekend. Go on, prove me wrong!!

  5. Celicastevie says

    Hi David, i’m sorry to say but theoretically, Nathan is right.
    On the other hand, putting value bets together in an acca enhances their value…
    Did you follow up on this please, and what were your results in real life, please ?

  6. Celicastevie says

    Interesting, now actually with some bookmakers, one gets a stake returned if one of the selections looses. This could theoretically in some games with odds very close to Betfairs, result in value.
    I know there is a system on the market that exploits just that fact.

  7. Scuzzle says

    I have a good system for my Saturday Football coupon, I use Betfreds Bonus Goals Galore coupon and pick 4x teams BTTS, which pays 9/1 so £20 which is what I usually put on gets back £200.

    Here’s how it works.

    Firstly you print the coupon off. https://betfred.mobi/goals-galore/bonus-list-coupon None of their games are individually priced up so now you go to another bookies site like Sky Bet or WIlliam Hills where they are priced up individually and you start writing on only the odds on shots for BTTS, 4/6 on, 8/11 on sometimes you will even get a 4/7 and I have even seen the odd 1/2. These are the games the bookies think are more likely for BTTS so you just take these and ignore the even money games and the 10/11, 11/10 etc.

    Now you are left with around 20 or so games and now you go to a site called Predicz which has past techincal data and scores predictions. http://www.predictz.com/

    Now you start allocating a points system to your games, if they think BTTS will score thats a point, you look at the last 5 times the teams have met and if it’s more BTTS than not thats a point, now you look at both teams last 5 games and if they usually score rather than draw a blank then that’s a point also.

    After you have done this you tot up the points and this should give you your 4x games selected and that’s what goes on your coupon, obviously if your gut overrules any they you can swap anything out. Try and make them all 3 o’clock kick offs or later avoid the early kick offs and you can have a Sunday game as now it’s all about laying off risk. You now watch the Saturday results show and do your coupon like a bingo card circling teams when they score, when it gets to the last 15 minutes of the game and you only need one you can go on Betfair and back the team not to get a goal to get your stake back. Sometimes you get your line up before half time and you can just enjoy the rest of the afternoon. Occasionally you will be miles away but not very often, you would be surprised how often this comes up or you end up one away but the lay off on Betfair covers this.

    I hope this makes sense, I used to do the standard fixed odds and some weeks your team was 2-0 down with a man sent off in the first 20 minutes so your line is fit for the bin, with BTTS you can be 7-0 down and still just need one goal all the way to the 93rd minute so you get more entertainment out of it.

  8. Rich says

    It’s very simple, like any kind of investment you should do your homework.
    If you are placing bets on BTTS then look at the history of both teams playing EACH OTHER recently.
    Going by the bookies favourites can be risky as they involve ‘false favourites’ to balance the books.
    I suggest Betfair as they provide head to head stats and the best odds if you are placing just one bet as exchanges don’t offer accumulaters but this can be done over at the sports book.

  9. Rich says

    Update. I would take the predictions from http://www.predictz.com/ with a pinch of salt.
    Have recorded their Predictions against the results and my Children, both under 10 would of done a better job.
    Just do as above and try and keep the W.D.W odds similar ie, H 3.75.D 3.65.A 3.25.

  10. grumpy says

    Rich posted ” try and keep the W.D.W odds similar ie, H 3.75.D 3.65.A 3.25. ”

    If those are the prices, just Dutch all three results for guaranteed profit.!

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