Each Way Winners – Conclusion

If there is one issue that unites all punters, it’s the thorny one of bookmakers closing their accounts.

Yes, there are sensible steps you can take to try to protect them– but even then some bookies just seem to do irrational things, including closing accounts that have only just opened.

Perhaps unsurprisingly therefore, the one thing I am constantly asked by readers is whether or not I can recommend a service that makes money at the exchange.

Even better, one that does so at Betfair Starting Prices.

Finding one would mean you could simply throw on your bets any time before the racing starts, not even check the price you’re getting, and then trust the market to come up with odds that deliver a long-term profit.

Seriously, does such a thing even exist?

Well, I’m pleased to be able to say that today, at last, I’m able to show you a set of results that suggests the answer may indeed be yes.

Welcome to the conclusion of my trial of Each Way Winners

(If however you’re unfamiliar with this product, I recommend you have a look at my opening article and interim progress updates before coming back here for my closing thoughts).

Each-Way Winners
Each-Way Winners

This has certainly been an eventful trial.

Things got off to such a poor start that my triallist Leslie bailed out after six weeks.

I therefore decided to pick the thing up myself but must confess to doing so with reluctance.

Imagine my surprise then when I banked over sixty points in month #2.

Interestingly, by this point, it was also becoming clear that the best way to use this service was simply to back the selections at Betfair SP, as doing so had delivered a remarkable 56 points’ profit from 137 bets, even after allowing for 5% winner’s commission.

I decided though that I had to get the bottom of whether this was supposed to be a bookie-only or Betfair-based service – and finally did so in months #3 and #4.

You can read about how the mystery was resolved in favour of Betfair here: the clue being a place dropped by the bookies, but not by the exchange, following a couple of non-runners.

Since then, I have only followed the service at Betfair SP, putting on two single-point bets for each selection: one in the win market and a second in the place. And I haven’t regretted my decision for a moment.

The top-level performance statistics show why. I have been betting at £2 a point and deducting 5% commission from all winning bets.

Each Way Winners – Whole Trial Betfair SP
Profit £ 250.01
Profit (pts) 125.01
New Bank £ 450.01
   
%age bank Growth 125.01%
Wins(races w/ profit) 113
Bets 401
Strike rate(races w/ profit) 28.18%
ROI 15.59%
   
Minimum Bank Balance £146.53
Maximum Bank Balance £470.52

No, that isn’t a misprint.

125 points at Betfair SP from 401 bets after 5% commission.

125 points.

At BSP.

Frankly, I’m still not sure quite what to make of it.

It is an amazing outcome. No other trial I have ever run comes close to a result like that.

The full results log is available for download here.

It covers the period from 19 May to 5th December 2016, with short breaks in August and October for my holidays.

Summary

I simply have to award a Pass mark to this product. It has just done something I have never seen in five and a half years of testing betting systems.

So that’s it then… conclusion finished?

Well, no. Because I do have to sound a note of caution.

Just look carefully at the performance graph… remembering again, that this is performance at Betfair SP, based on £2 a point level stakes.

Each Way Winners Performance
Each Way Winners Performance

Impressive, huh?

Now I’d like you to zoom in at the left-hand end of the graph.

This bit…

Each Way Winners
Each Way Winners

Not quite so impressive, is it?

You see, this little section, which, if you are like me, you hardly noticed in the graphic above, represents a heartbreaking, peak-to-trough drawdown of 84.83 points.

Ask yourself honestly: do you really think you could cope with that?

My bank balance of 100 points lived with it.

But my triallist Leslie couldn’t.

Now, I have passed Each Way Winners. I just have to. And I intend to press on with it, betting at Betfair SP.

The reason?

Because I think it’s a hugely profitable service… provided you have an iron constitution.

But it’s clearly not for everyone. And only you can decide if it’s for you.

If you’d like to get involved, you can do so here.

Lucy

ps why not have a read of my free 43 PAGE PDF on how to make £1K a month from betting systems? It’s easy to follow, and you can get it right here!

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Comments

  1. SueD says

    I’m beginning to feel very sorry for Leslie – I assume she’s the same one who was trialling the service mentioned in ‘Can you really manage risk’.

  2. SueD says

    I’ve just been looking through the results – is this used on flat races only? Seems to be primarily AW recently.

    The losing runs reminds me of when I was using Football Bank Builder. The problem was that I was using recovery for that – and I did recover twice, moved on to Revelation recovery and then had a run of 25 losers interspersed with one win. Not good! The crazy thing with that system is that someone else could have had totally different results – pot luck on which games you played as so many fit the criteria.

    • Lucy says

      Sue

      Yes, I think it is just used on the flat.

      The trouble with any loss recovery system is that your final outcome ultimately depends on what you pick as your first bet. You may as well buy a lottery ticket.

      I will be publishing an offer from Each Way Winners very shortly.

      Lucy

  3. SueD says

    When I’d looked at their site and went to leave I was offered a free tip each day – which I’ve taken.

    Hope I’m not on a Leslie run!

    • Lucy says

      Sue

      You could be… This really is the ultimate long-haul strategy. But the winners, when they do come, are often enormous.

      Ben, the brains behind the service, is reluctant to discount his service. To be fair, £67+VAT for a year is very reasonable however I managed to get him to shave a tenner off.

      So, to get this remarkable product for 12 months for just £57+VAT you have to buy via this link.

      Lucy

  4. SueD says

    Very reasonably priced. I shall stick with the freebies for a while and see how they go but may well join up in due course. Brilliant finding Betfair racing services for the flat – and this is your second.

  5. Liam says

    Hi Lucy

    Just for completeness, I have looked at the results for EW winners during your two breaks (I was trialling this service in August and just looked at the Betfair SP for October).

    The total points over your trial period of 102.72 (You luckily missed a lull period in August). Overall though, over 6 and a half months, 102.72 at approx 15.8 points per month at Betfair SP is still pretty remarkable!

    Cheers

    Liam

  6. Suzy says

    remarkable indeed! -and thanks for completeling the trial Lucy – I’ve been following along as always looking for EW Value

    I did some further analysis of the results and interestingly enough, or perhaps not as this is always usually the outcome of EW Betting, you would be better off – in the case of the BSP results, much much better off – just placing the 2pt stakes on the win

    the BSP wins show a 132pt profit whereas the places show a 7pt loss, so a 2pt stake on the win and none on the place would have been fairly incredible 😮 – the same for the advised prices were +29pt win / -33pt places, so even they would have been better as win singles

    very intersting tho’ 😀

    and then even more interestingly if you just place the bets when the BSP (obviously just before it as it’s not known til too late) is looking like being higher than the advised price it gets even better.. less bets 267 from the 401, but 155pts profit on the wins and 13pts on the places, and higher end bank to boot

    and in the case of the LLR at the start the bank never went negative

  7. SueD says

    That is really interesting Suzy. I’ve had 19 bets so far and (on £2 each way – ie £4) am currently £3.25 in profit – which from Lucy’s warning is a good result! I’ve had 2 wins and 4 places and would be £2.10 in profit if backing wins only (but there would be an odds difference, not sure if that would be good or bad) so slightly better for me with going with EW – but will keep an eye on this.

    I find that at the time the selection is sent the markets are sparse and unsettled and there is usually an increase in the price, often substantial. I wish SP could be selected for the each way market as you can’t really bet and go unless prepared to take the early price which can be so much lower than the SP.

    Unless there is a really bad dip (not sure if I have Lucy’s iron constitution!) I will probably sign up in due course but will continue with the free bets for the moment.

    • Lucy says

      We have had a dip recently, though I am still sitting on 71 points’ profit at BSP overall. But the losing runs do take some getting used to (which is a polite way of saying I hate them!).

      Today was particularly frustrating. The Magic Pencil was published at a price of 17 yesterday and certain one reader of mine has written to say he got on at 19. However it went off at a BSP of 6.6 and duly won… very nice of course, but it could have been oh so much better.

      @Suzy – you’ve certainly given me something to think about. Even with recent losses, straight win betting is up at BSP by 105 points which is an astonishing achievement. The only problem, I suppose, is that the strike rate for straight win betting is even worse!

      • Suzy says

        there will always be a dip, always.. think Leslie got one of those at the beginning, however nothing can defy the odds forever all you can hope for is an edge which keeps you ever so slightly on top of the expected outcome if you have got it right.

        Amazing., extraordinary, as these results seem to be then it wold be very foolish to think they could continue this way.. would be nice but 😉

      • Suzy says

        and there is no thing such thing as the strike rate being “even worse” IMHO.. if the strike rate is matching or bettering the odds achieved the you have a winner, no matter if the odds are 14.00 or 1.4, as long as the strike rate (1/decimal odds) beats the odds you are getting

        You can have value at 1.4 if you’re striking better than 71.5%.. but I’ll beat you at odds of 14 if I’m striking at 7.5%.. my wins will be less frequent, nd obviously losing runs may be longer, but my odds are not worse than yours 😉

  8. Suzy says

    yes straight win betting will of course be rockier, but that’s where trialling and past data comes in

    the strke rate of wins just now needs odds of 9.11 to b/even.. the advised prices average are 9.2 (hence the slight profit) the BSP is 10.36 hence the smiles.. but those are averages and odds that will not occur without pain.. the winners at 6.00 are jusyt upholding that average, you do actually need the big winners to make it pay

    now the place prices, which should be the softner, lowever odds, less heart attacks along the way etc – at a strike rate of 32.17% needs odds of 3.11 to breakeven.. at advised you’re getting 2.82, at BSP getting 3.1

    so BSP on the place seems to be fair value.. on the place only. So where is he value?

    • Jonathan Wellingham says

      I’m not sure straight win betting is rockier. I am not a fan of each-way, but I subscribed to a service called Each Way Craig based on brilliant results from January to September last year. He made nearly 60 points for me in October, then it went severely downhill and hasn’t recovered. The problem (for me) with each-way is when you are on a losing streak with very few placed, the losses are doubled. In Craig’s case, analysis of his past results showed that the place part of the bet only made around 4% ROI, whereas the win part made 35%. By betting win-only you trade a slightly lower overall profit when it is going well for almost half the losses when it is going badly – the ups are slightly less, but the downs are not nearly as extreme.

      I looked at another each-way service which said how wonderful each-way was, but analysis of their place bets showed an ROI of 0%. What’s the point?

      I subscribed to Classic Racing Gold (after Lucy’s glowing trial!) and they went downhill, and I found them to be more profitable betting win-only, and the losses less extreme.

  9. SueD says

    Lucy – if you get a moment – how is this going for you?

    The profit I had achieved with my free tips is fast being eroded – on a run of 14 losers at the moment (two of them placed but I’m now backing in the win market only).

    Hope this post changes that. 😉

    • Lucy says

      Sue

      I’m at 54 points’ profit from 617 bets, based on Betfair SP and allowing 5% for commission.

      It’s been a really tough run though Royal Birth on Saturday provided some relief, winning at a BSP of 10.52. Did you miss that one?

      Lucy

      • SueD says

        I had Oakley Pride on Saturday – so yes, missed Royal Birth. Including today, now on a run of 16 losers (2 placed).

        I’m on just over 11 points profit after 69 bets – but have lost over half with this last run. I’ll stick with it for another week – but very tough going at the moment. At least I only have one a day – couldn’t cope with more!

  10. SueD says

    Lucy, I cancelled after yesterday’s loser. Profits went from over £100 down to £20 so thought I’d quit while ahead!

    Yesterday’s was placed but I have noticed of late that most of his picks of late have been at lower odds so not sure if I had been doing EW it would have made much of a difference.

    Expect a big winner today 8) !

  11. Fabian says

    Still keeping the faith Sue. Started Jan 1st and down £321 including the £57 sub. Reason being is that:

    A on the 3rd of Jan I cashed out in-play on a winner, costing me something like £63 EV. Won’t do that again.
    B First 3 weeks were at £8 a bet, then £20. First three weeks on £20 would have given me another £230 EV
    C Played with taking BSP sometimes and sometimes not, many times getting way better than BSP on horses going on to be losers (or 2nd place!) and yet on ones I stuck with BSP the odds shortened and horsie went on to win (18th of Feb Considered taking 8.2 BSP was 4.62 leaving me up only £28.85 that day)
    D Lots of 2nd places!
    E My results in bar chart form show similar pattern to Lucy’s trial, where the majority of profits came from a few big winners, and I’ve only had Masamah on 31st Jan giving me a +£441 day.
    F I already signed up for a year.

    So I feel, like Lucy said, if you can weather the storm of doubt, fingers crossed a big winner is on the horizon and I’m not succumbing to gambler’s fallacy.

    • Lucy says

      Fabian,

      Yes, the storms of doubt are very real.

      Following yesterday’s’ winners, I’ve accumulated 67.07 points at Betfair SP after 635 bets after allowing for 5% commission.

      The ROI isn’t amazing – it’s 5.28%, down from over 15% during the trial – and the strike rate, at 26%, guarantees tough runs.

      The bottom line is I have lost an awful lot since the end of the trial but remain comfortably in profit overall. It is tempting to stop, but then I fear I may suffer Sue’s unbelievably unlucky fate above…

      Lucy

      • Fabian says

        That’s terrible! My illusions have been shattered! However: looking at your results (modified to win-only) from mid-May to Dec I calculated 32.38% ROI with 4.9% commission. And yet over nearly 70 days myself I’m at 6.41% ROI. My hope is the recent results are skewed due to the winter and frozen outsiders being less likely to pull it out of the bag? That and running a shit-load of chart comparisons leads me to believe the ROI could shoot sharply north if we stay in long enough. Yeah with almost 11% strike rate it is a fun ride. :) Thus the time-frame for win-only showing its true ROI is very long. Maybe a year or more. I’m hoping it’s actually above 20%. Then delete this review so we get good BSP haha 😉

  12. Don Draper says

    I trialled Each Way Winners which is a very simple twist on something people having been doing for ages (basically you let the bets ride rather than trading out) but I found the each way opportunities found by Odds Monkey much better and more profitable than Cruickshanks own. In the short term OM is cheaper too…..

  13. Kev says

    Does anyone here subscribe to this please ? Just wondering if it’s worth a shot during the flat season (cant predict shit on the jumps as horses can and do fall) and been checking the results over the past month and it’s been delivering some including a 10/1 today (2 July), 11/1 on 1st July and a 17/1 (SP) on 29th June. This is just from the free tips you receive daily. Wondering if the paid for service delivers more of the same.

    • Fabian says

      Really not worth your time. I followed from Jan 1st and up to and including today the ROI is 0.62%. So basically it’s made a tenner over the yearly £57 sub, and that’s if you were doing £20 bets!

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