BetHawk Trial Conclusion!

Hello everyone, it’s Stephen here with the conclusion of our year-long (re-)trial of BetHawk’s Betfair betting bot.

Inevitably, over the course of a whole year, there are bound to be some ups and downs. And trust me, we’ve had a few!

We began on 5th February, 2016 so the trial has run for exactly one calendar year.

It got off to an incredible start, adding 547 points in just three months.

Unsurprisingly, this performance level couldn’t be maintained but the loss of 290 points over the next quarter was deeply sobering.

The turning point came in August with a modest but heartening profit of 23 points. Since when, we never really looked back.

September, OctoberNovember and December all finished in the black, meaning I entered the final month 672 points ahead.

So did the trial end with a bang or a whimper?

Read on to find out…

(If, however, you’re unfamiliar with BetHawk, I suggest you have a look at my introductory post and earlier articles before returning here for my closing thoughts).

BetHawk
BetHawk

I’m pleased to say we finished with another positive, if unspectacular, month.

In fact, it lasted a month and a bit as I decided to extend the trial to 5th February in order to complete the full year.

The final period returned a net profit of 24 points to leave me with a bank balance of 1,496 points.

I started out last February with 800 so, in all, I’ve added 696 points to finish at the highest point of the trial.

MONTH P/L TOTAL P/L POINTS BANK NOTES
Initial     800  
February 198 198 998  
March 259 457 1257  
April 90 547 1347  
May -133 414 1214 (Luxor14 was removed 3rd May.)
June -109 305 1105 (Luxor08 was removed 8th Jun.)
July -48 257 1057  
August 23 280 1080  
September 58 338 1138  
October 247 585 1385  
November 65 650 1450  
December 22 672 1472  
January to Feb 5 24 696 1496  

Key Statistics

  • Total number of bets placed – 5,776 (excludes the Luxor14 and Luxor08 bets)
  • Initial betting bank – 800 points
  • New bank balance – 1,496 points
  • Capital Growth – 87%

I set the value of a point at a cautious 50 pence.

In financial terms therefore, my opening bank balance of £400 has grown to £748.

The trial has been genuinely hands-free though there was one day in January when the bot didn’t start and I had to restart it the next day.

However, I think this was down to a glitch on my VPS rather than the Bethawk software.

Summary

I’ve now finished my marathon trial, and, after a big dip in the middle, the system has completed an excellent recovery and posted six positive months in a row.

Early on, the author Keith told us that the expectation was 60 points’ profit per month with the systems I was using.

Our results have pretty much met this target, averaging 58 points, in spite of the big dip in the middle.

I therefore have no hesitation in awarding BetHawk a Pass mark, and I, for one, will be converting my trial account to a paid subscription.

It is a little complicated to work out which of the different subsystems to use, and then to figure out what bank size to use with them. But Keith is extremely helpful in providing both data and sensible approaches to help you make these decisions.

A couple of thoughts on subscription costs:

  • I used very low actual stakes, because I didn’t want to risk too much on an unknown quantity. And the point has been well made in readers’ comments on previous articles that, in reality, you would need to use a significantly higher stake than I did to make a profit over and above the cost of the subscription.
  • The minimum subscription is £25 per month and gives you 5 credits, which means you have 5 stakes of £2 to allocate across the various subsystems. I ended up with 5 systems, so in my case, I would have been betting at £2 per point instead of the 50p I actually used.
  • It follows that I would have made £1,392 for a total subscription cost of £25 x 12 = £300. Which works out at a net profit of £1,092 after fees.
  • There are higher cost subscription levels available if you prefer to be more adventurous.

If you’d like to find out more about BetHawk, you can do so here.

Stephen

ps why not have a read of Lucy’s free PDF on making £1K per month from betting? It is easy to follow, and you can get a copy just by clicking this link!

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Comments

  1. Stephen G says

    In case anyone else is copying what I’m doing (commiserations so far, LOL)…

    I have unticked all of the Newmarket races within BetHawk today, in line with the overall analysis showing negative results for Luxor10 and Luxor19 lay systems at the big festivals!

    Banks stands at 3741.

    Have a great day!
    Stephen

  2. Doug says

    Stephen – I really wish I had seen your post earlier. Sadly, I am following you and to date I am down an awful lot….lol. It wasn’t just newmarket that did me in today – it was Goodwood as well! I somehow don’t think I’ll be following this system much longer. I cannot see how it will recover the losses – it is far too random! Massive losses, too little recovery potential. I’ll see it our until current subscription expires, but after that…………

    • Stephen G says

      Hi Doug,
      Yes I must admit I’m starting to feel a lot less confident myself now. I expect it will bounce back, but we’ll see.
      (Even if it does, the long term performance average for Luxor10 and Luxor19 at the moment is taking a hit, but I am sticking with them)

      On the big festivals – as I suggested in my earlier post about it, I suggest you disable those races on those festival days. Here again is the list of festivals:
      Cheltenham Festival
      Aintree Grand National
      Newmarket 1000 Guineas
      Epsom Derby
      Royal Ascot
      Newmarket July Festival
      Glorious Goodwood
      Ebor York Festival
      Doncaster St Leger

      And here are the remaining dates of these for this year by my calculation:
      02/06/2017 03/06/2017 20/06/2017 21/06/2017 22/06/2017 23/06/2017 24/06/2017 13/07/2017 14/07/2017 15/07/2017 01/08/2017 02/08/2017 03/08/2017 04/08/2017 05/08/2017 23/08/2017 24/08/2017 25/08/2017 26/08/2017 14/09/2017 15/09/2017 16/09/2017

      cheers,
      Stephen

  3. Stephen G says

    Yesterday was another OUCH, with GOSSIPPING laid and winning the 14.40 Goodwood at a matched price of 40. With that being -234 pounds BH did well outside of that for the day to be “only” down 113.

    New bank:
    3628 (Start was 4000, early Feb)

  4. Ed says

    Thanks Keith it will be interesting to see how this year stacks up in the 2nd half – there does seem to be some weakness in the spring and summer that coincides with some of the larger meetings

  5. Stephen G says

    Another bad day with Artistica laid at 60 in the 15.50 Nottingham
    Takes the bank to a new low point of 3588.
    I keep looking forward to the recovery 😉

  6. Stephen G says

    Only 2 days and here we are again… this time laid Englishman in the 18.50 again at 60 and laid the place as well at 12.50, so a total loss of 382 on the day to bring the bank down to:
    3200

  7. Vincent says

    Only time will tell but it might be worth turning off the beast during summer time, as per previous Keith’s seasonal findings.
    In the meantime, I looked at the past performance graph and it put me back in confidence.

    Have you seen the “old new” Bali AW system? Looks very good when AW racing comes back.

  8. Stephen G says

    By my reading of Keith’s seasonal analysis – “full 2 years”, both Luxor10 and Luxor19 are in profit in all 4 quarters, so that wouldn’t be suggesting turning it off over summer or at any period ?

    Yes Bali sounds good, although I haven’t looked into it.

  9. Stephen G says

    Here we are again, this time with two losers, 14.30 Blaine laid at 36 and 17.05 Coolfitch laid @ 25.
    Bank has reached another new low point of
    3102

    Getting hard not to lose confidence in this, but I’ll keep going, believing in long term recovery :-)

    • Doug says

      Thankfully, my ‘trial’ has come to an end and my subscription cancelled. My losses were similar to yours – just over £682 in the same period and my confidence severely dented. I’m still rooting for you Stephen, but I somehow don’t think you’ll recover the money any time soon.. Good luck though!

      • Vincent says

        Hi Doug,

        Please do not take it as an offense, but you should have invested in this with a long term investment in mind… People should stop being so short term minded.

        This “deep” is not uncommon with BetHawk (laying at those odds) as graphs suggested, so your bank should have been able to take this into account…

        Also the recovery has been historically pretty impressive.

        Usually punters leave the boat at the worst time when things do not go well (actually as most investors do in the stock market!!!). Only to see a recovery… Buffet said buy when other fear, and sell when others are greedy… I’m doing just that and this works in the stock exchange.

        The mindset is very important, and although I’ve also had some moment of doubt about BetHawk, I’ve still have full confidence as I’ve crunched the numbers, seen the potential risks and the recovery. And I’ve taken the decision to invest in this, so not leaving now!

        Hope that can help others and shipping in and out is not recommended.

        Best
        V.

        • Doug says

          Hi Vincent, No offence taken….
          With respect though, you have no idea what my starting bank was. This loss may have been a very small percentage and my thoughts more to do with the risk/return against the stakes involved, not necessarily the size of the bank.
          I invest heavily in the ‘markets’ and generally endorse most sayings from Mr Buffet having spent the last 40 years in and around investment banking. However, even the great man makes mistakes and the loss of $444m in Tesco by his firm Berkshire Hathaway was quite something (even though it was only one fifth of 1% of Berkshires net worth). In his 50th annual letter to shareholders he said “An attentive investor, I’m embarrassed to report, would have sold Tesco shares earlier, I made a big mistake with this investment by dawdling”

          This is a system, not an under performing portfolio or a unloved stock, and therefore has no underlying value unlike a poorly performing but asset rich multi-national just ripe for picking and ready for investment/growth.

          And, having seen and tested this product I have formed an opinion that it’s not for me and longer term I feel I can extract more value from other initiatives. As most investors will also attest, getting out of an under-performing share/fund is just as important (even at a loss) as hanging in for the long haul hoping for the recovery to come (see above). I wish everyone who uses this good fortune and I hope it does turn around for those who jumped in 3 months ago. Historical data and recovery periods are important in the life cycle of an investment and although your confidence in the product through the use of historical graphs is high, may I quote another saying, well versed in the investment world, that past performance is not a guide to future return.
          Good luck and best wishes.

          • Vincent says

            Hi Doug

            That’s a very sound reasoning to me. One point to note is the 3 months time horizon you allowed for BH, far too short for this system Dough!

            Wish you the best in any investment.

            Best
            Vincent

  10. Stephen G says

    BH has had a good spell for my two chosen systems Luxor10 and Luxor19, and the bank has recovered to:
    3915

    Meanwhile, BetHawk’s owner Keith has suggested some different portfolios I could use with more consistent growth graphs over the last year or so. I must admit I value consistency quite highly, so I’ve decided I’m going to make the switch today to the following new portfolio:

    Bali01 LAY PLACE 36
    Luxor17 LAY WIN 3
    Paris7.1 BACK WIN SP 12
    Venice17.1 BACK WIN SP 6

    I’ll continue my bank from where it is at 3915
    These stake levels are quite aggressive for this bank size – they map to catering for up to twice the maximum drawdown so far of this portfolio. Note that Keith’s recommendation is more conservative – to use 3x max drawdown.

    As usual I’ll keep everyone posted whenever there’s a really good or bad day. If you hear nothing on here it means the bank is gradually increasing !!

    cheers,
    Stephen

    • Vincent says

      Hi Stephen,

      I’m following the same move as you. I was too much weighted towards the laying side, the one suggested looks more promising and more balanced, smoother hopefully!!

      Will you still be avoided “big meetings”?

      Cheers
      V

    • says

      Hi Everyone.

      Just thought I’d point out that I’m happy to look through the figures and come up with some tailored portfolios for anyone, it’s not just a perk for Stephen lol.

      All I need to know is your bank size, whether you prefer to limit yourself to a certain number of credits/subscription costs, how aggressive you want your bank/stake ratio to be ( we suggest 3x 2 year draw down where Stephen has chosen 2x ) and your risk attitude ( high risk with potential rapid growth ( and loss ) or lower risk with steady growth )
      The details of your current portfolio would be handy too so I can compare.

      Email me at info@acebots.co.uk with the above details if you are interested.

      I will just remind everyone that we are still basing everything on past results, as does any service, so there’s no guarantee anything I come up with is any better than what you have already come up with going forward, it’s all in the interpretation of the data and ultimately your decision at the end of it :-).

      Keith

  11. Stephen G says

    Hmmm, early days, but my new portfolio has not gone well so far.

    Bank started at 3915
    Bank now: 3481

    It’s been a pretty steady decline so far (different profile from the previous portfolio of course as this one is biased towards backing rather than laying!)

    (Btw according to my analysis of Keith’s Festival results summary, it is still best to turn it off for major festivals for this portfolio – which I did for Ascot)

  12. Stephen G says

    Yesterday was the worst yet on this portolio:
    it place laid Age of Wisdom at 12.5 in the 20.10 race.
    Lost just over 300 overall on the day
    Bank now:
    3175

  13. Vincent says

    Loss after loss here, no sign of improvement at all, especially with the Lay Win…

    I will got a little bit longer and then remove it from my portfolio it it goes on like that (yesterday layed 3 horses @ 30+ and they won their races).
    And I’m excluding Newmarket and big meetings.

    Starting to lose faith in this…

  14. Stephen G says

    Yes I agree Vincent, I’m feeling the same pain.

    My bank is now:
    2816

    (4000 start point originally, and 3920 start point for this portfolio)

  15. eddie says

    The mar to sep period does seem to be an issue
    Perhaps the lays could work as backing bets during this period

  16. Ed says

    Any updates gents?
    If the lays are being placed at this kind of rate they might work better as a backing system
    There does seem to be an issue in the March-September period

  17. Stephen G says

    My bank has been pretty flat the last week or so: 2782

    On the lays being backs – which system in particular? – and I guess the thing to do would be to check out that system’s profile in BetHawk Config for each March-September period that it has been running- see if it confirms the pattern you are suggesting? [Maybe you did this already?]

    cheers,
    Stephen

  18. Stephen G says

    Update: my bank had continued on its steady downward trend to reach
    2292
    at the end of yesterday.
    However today was its best day for a long time (York was excluded as with all big festivals) for a gain of 148 to give
    2440
    (reminder: 3920 was the start point for this portfolio, so it’s not good so far)

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