BetHawk Re-Trial Month 1 – Wow!

Hi everyone, Stephen here, with a report on the first month of my live trial of the BetHawk Betfair robot.

I kicked off the trial in early February to try to come to a final, definitive conclusion about this intriguing piece of software.

But if you don’t know what this re-trial is all about, then I suggest your first read my introduction to the thread.

However I suspect I can guess what you really want to know….

Has BetHawk automagically been winning me money, just like it says it will on the tin? 

BetHawk
BetHawk

Well, I’m glad to say the answer so far is, “YES!”

Look at this screenshot of summary stats and admire the nice ascending graph!

BetHawk Month #1 Performance
BetHawk Month #1 Performance

If you recall, I started on 5th February with an 800 point bank at 0.50 (fifty pence) per point, ie GBP £400.

I’m pleased to report that, after 904 bets, the bank has grown to a healthy GBP £499 – a net profit of 198 points – an increase equal to almost 25% of the  starting bank!

I’d be extremely happy with that level of performance if it is maintained for the rest of the trial.

The eagle-eyed amongst you will spot a small discrepancy between the 198 points profit I actually made, and the 195 points profit in the screenshot.  The system author, Keith, has explained to me in great detail why there is a small discrepancy between what BetHawk Config shows and the true profit, and I am satisfied that the difference will only ever be small, and so is nothing to be concerned about.

Remarkably, the last 16 days have all produced positive outcomes, and there have been only 6 negative days out of 25 in the trial so far.

So it’s all been impressive stuff; though, of course, it is very early days yet in what is expected to be at least a ten month trial.

So.. has it truly been hands-free?

Yes it has!

Apart from one day when Betfair was down for an extensive maintenance period.  This caused BetHawk to crash, and because I had got so used to not having to touch it, I stupidly forgot to check whether it needed restarting.

This reminded me of what I already knew – that if you are running any kind of robot on Betfair then always to check it is up and running correctly after an outage.

Keith also said that he would look to send a reminder email to all subscribers whenever he becomes aware of the exchange being down – which would of course be very helpful.

In normal mode however, BetHawk remains hands-free. I’ve even configured it to send me a little summary email at the end of the racing day.

Today’s email summary is below: so you can see that I don’t even have to log in to find out the exact score for the day. :-)

BetHawkNG Results
Profit : 3.41
Points : 6.82
Bank : 1756.99

So.. how did the individual systems in the portfolio fare?

The statistics and graphs for each of the 7 systems I am running are shown in the screenshots below.

I am pleased to be able to report that they all profited except for “Venice 18” (see the last screenshot), which is down about 5 points, and “Keith 09″ (second image), which has roughly broken even.

One of the other systems only came into profit in the last few days – but hey, a profit’s a profit. 😀

port 1

port 2

port 3

port 4

port 5

port 6

port 7

Summary

We’re only a month into the trial, so a note of caution should be sounded.

However, BetHawk has certainly made a very promising start.  And, if it continues in the same fashion, I, for one, will be very happy with it!

Now that it’s up and running, there’s really little to do except, hopefully, keep tabs on how much money it’s making. :)

I’ll be back with my next report around the end of March.

In the meantime, you can read more about BetHawk here.

Stephen

ps why not have a quick look at Lucy’s free ebook on making £1000 per month from betting? It is dead easy to follow, and you can get a copy now just by clicking this link!

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Comments

  1. says

    Hi everyone

    Keith here from Acebots

    One thing we like to do at Acebots is tell it how it is regardless of whether that makes us sales or not so following on from Stephens first month I thought I would add some more statistics and maybe some warnings too, so here goes.

    If we look at the portfolio Stephen is trialling then over the last 24 months it would have produced these figures:

    ( first figures are Stephens 7 system portfolio, second figures are the full 11 system portfolio to compare )

    Months _ 24
    Total P/L _ 2719 pts
    Avg per Month _ 113 pts
    Winning Months _ 18
    Losing Months _ 6
    Best Winning Month _ 364 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -174 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 173 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -66 pts

    Months _ 24
    Total P/L _ 3957 pts
    Avg per Month _ 165 pts
    Winning Months _ 18
    Losing Months _ 6
    Best Winning Month _ 579 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -191 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 256 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -108 pts

    Splitting that up slightly we get:

    2014

    Months _ 12
    Total P/L _ 1170 pts
    Avg per Month _ 117 pts
    Winning Months _ 8
    Losing Months _ 2
    Best Winning Month _ 315 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -174 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 169 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -91 pts

    Months _ 12
    Total P/L _ 1489 pts
    Avg per Month _ 149 pts
    Winning Months _ 7
    Losing Months _ 3
    Best Winning Month _ 522 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -150 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 253 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -94 pts

    2015/16

    Months _ 14
    Total P/L _ 1549 pts
    Avg per Month _ 111 pts
    Winning Months _ 10
    Losing Months _ 4
    Best Winning Month _ 364 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -79 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 177 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -54 pts

    Months _ 14
    Total P/L _ 2468 pts
    Avg per Month _ 176 pts
    Winning Months _ 11
    Losing Months _ 3
    Best Winning Month _ 579 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -191 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 258 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -123 pts

    There is a problem with the above figures though in that some of the systems used were only created at the beginning of September 2015. This means that any figures for these systems prior to this date could be included in the dreaded “back fitted” category so although the figures are useful up to a point for anyone only interested in figures achieved after creation date here are the same stats since any changes were made. ( 6 months )

    Sept 2015 >

    Months _ 6
    Total P/L _ 793 pts
    Avg per Month _ 132 pts
    Winning Months _ 4
    Losing Months _ 2
    Best Winning Month _ 364 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -78 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 228 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -60 pts

    Months _ 6
    Total P/L _ 1232 pts
    Avg per Month _ 205 pts
    Winning Months _ 4
    Losing Months _ 2
    Best Winning Month _ 579 pts
    Worst Losing Month _ -191 pts
    Avg Winning Month _ 385 pts
    Avg Losing Month _ -154 pts

    So what do we draw from all this.lol

    First of all Stephens first month is above average for his portfolio, 198 pts profit where the average over a 2 year period is 113 pts and since the last modification or addition of a system 132 pts.

    Secondly the figures for the last 6 months, since any changes were made to any systems, overall are better than the previous 18 months, which can only be a good thing.

    Thirdly, and VERY VERY important, is that losing months do occur. Not only that but when they do occur they can be 3 figure losing months. Some of the lay systems lay at high odds and sometimes multiple systems pick the same selection. This means long winning runs but a big hit when the inevitable loss comes, and it WILL come however much we try to avoid it.

    It is therefore very important to have a bank size to cover this AND to not be too shocked when it does. Losing happens in betting, it’s how we deal with that loss that matters and the long term results.

    I hope that hasn’t bored you all too much lol but if it only helps 1 person make a more informed choice then it was worth it :-)

    Keith

  2. says

    Hi again

    A bit more info on the actual systems to make portfolio choosing a little easier. LMD = Last Modified Date, the last change to the system selection process.

    We have a little bug at the minute which means the systems are showing different names in BetHawkConfig and BetHawkBet. It doesn’t affect the operation of the bot but I’ve put both names below to save confusion until it’s fixed.

    The older systems

    Paris 07.1 ( Pegasus 07.1 ) has been around since 2012 and has been a steady performer. If you look at the graph recently though you will see it’s been in decline since April last year so could this be another of the old systems that is now struggling. Betting Odds Range 10 – 24

    Venice 08.1 ( Clive 08.1 ) is a lay system on the win market. It doesn’t lose often but when it does it can lose with a bang. It lays high odds, something many people think is just a way to hit long winning runs until the inevitable big crash. I happen to think there is a lot more to the system than that but again it’s not suitable for everyone. Hopefully everyone can see the potential benefits and pitfalls of this system by checking the P/L and the draw down figures etc. Betting Odds Range 30 – 300 ( very rare it gets anywhere near 300 )

    Venice 10.2 ( Clive 10.2 ) is a bit of an up and down system without really doing much damage either way. It can though be useful for smoothing out a graph but doesn’t bet very often. Betting Odds Range 6 -14

    Venice 17.1 ( Clive 17.1 ) doesn’t back short odds and so has the inevitable losing runs, it’s peak was in December last year though so unlike maybe Paris 07.1 this one seems to be holding it’s own. Betting Odds Range 10 -35

    Venice 18 ( Clive 18 ) bets on much shorter odds than 17.1. Again this is a 3+ year old system that has it’s peak last November, there hasn’t been many bets over Dec/Jan but that’s just the way it goes, not a system to really get rich from but can’t force systems to pick selections that aren’t there.lol Betting Odds Range 2.50 – 8

    The newer systems

    Luxor 08 ( Keith 08 ) picks a lot of bets on the lay place market and this is something that many won’t like, the scatter-gun approach as many call it, but for anyone who likes to see a lot of action from their day maybe it’s for them. Betting Odds Range 0 -100

    Luxor 09 ( Keith 09 ) is again on the lay place market but is a lot more selective in it’s approach than 08. Was at it’s LMD peak in Jan 2016 before what turned out to be a disastrous day for most of the systems on the 23rd, not the first time Ascot has caused a problem with the lays so something I need to look at. Betting Odds Range 0 -50

    Luxor 10 ( Keith 10 ) is actually a modification of 08 to be less scatter-gun, currently at it’s LMD peak. Betting Odds Range 10 -100

    Luxor 14 ( Keith 14 ) had it’s LMD peak in Jan 16, pretty flaty since then. Lays on the place market. Betting Odds Range 0 -100

    Luxor 17 ( Keith 17 ) is a lay win market system that is less “dangerous” than Venice 08.1 but still gives plenty of bets for those that like that route, currently at it’s LMD peak and going well. Betting Odds Range 25 -60

    Luxor 19 ( Keith 19 ) is another lay win market system that rivals Venice 08.1 for frequency of bets but with less potential danger to your bank due to reduced odds range. Another that is currently at it’s LMD peak. Betting Odds Range 25 -60

    Hope that helps anyone making a portfolio choice. All the data can be found in BetHawk Config for free but if anyone needs help or has a question then fire away :-)

    Daily results updates are on our forum at http://www.acebots.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?2694-BetHawk-Roundup-2016

    Keith

  3. says

    Hi

    I’ve been asked what is the best way to choose a portfolio so I thought I would ramble on on here a little in the hope that it may help answer the question.

    In fact the simple answer is there isn’t a best way to choose a portfolio.

    Now that’s not much help but I would explain that by saying that we all have different thresholds to risk and how we like to bet. Some will like loads and loads of bets and enjoy the constant thrill of the potential profits while accepting the losses. Others would hate that idea and much prefer fewer bets that at least feel more selective and keep the liabilities down. How you choose your portfolio is determined as much by this as the results of individual systems.

    There are a couple of tools within Bethawk Config can be very useful in choosing your portfolio so here’s a quick guide to using them.

    The first is the System Summary table

    Open Bethawk Config and choose “No Portfolio Selected” from the drop down under Displayed Portfolio. ( you don’t have to select No Portfolio but I find it easier when none of the systems appear in yellow in it. ) I’ve also selected the 2015 period for the purpose of this guide.

    You now have a pop up showing all the stats for all the systems in one easy to read table.

    For the risk averse out there you may be tempted to look at the draw down column and pick the systems with the smallest draw down figure, but would that be right ?
    Venice 10.2 ( Clive 10.2 ) has the lowest draw down figure for 2015 at -29.28 pts but it also only made a profit of 6.16 pts overall. If we look at the DD% column we can see that the -29.28 draw down was in fact 475.32% of the actual profit. So yes the draw down might be the lowest but it’s actually quite large in comparison to the profit the system makes.
    On the other hand Luxor 19 ( Keith 19 ) has a much higher draw down of -151.45 pts but also a much higher profit of 454.65 pts giving a DD% of 33.31% of the actual profit.
    Which one, long term, is the best bet ?

    At the other end of the spectrum is Venice 08.1 ( Clive 08.1 ) which has the highest profit figure at 348 pts. If you want profits this is the one to pick, but is it ?

    Venice 08.1 ( Clive 08.1 ) has a draw down of -331.15 pts and a profit of 348 pts giving a DD% of 95.16% of the actual profit

    Luxor 10 ( Keith 10 ) has a lower profit at 199.50 pts but also a lower draw down at -64.50 pts which is 32.33% of the actual profit.

    So we could actually put five times the stake on Luxor 10 than we can on Venice 08.1 without passing the Venice 08.1 draw down figure ( 5 x 64.50 = 322.50 against 331.15 ) which would give us five times the profit at 997.50 pts with a draw down figure of -322.50 pts

    The second tool is the System Comparison Tool

    Open Bethawk Config and choose No Portfolio Selected from the drop down under Displayed Portfolio and open the System Summary pop up again as before.
    In the credits column enter 1 into each system, when you enter the last 1 click on the name of any other system so that the last 1 registers.
    Click on Submit Manual Changes at the top left corner.
    This will save a temp portfolio of all the systems. You can save this portfolio in the normal way by clicking Save and giving it a name or you can use it in it’s temp form.
    Click on System Comparison.
    A table will open showing how many selections each of the systems shares with other systems. ( you may have to drag the table out to show all entries )
    To illustrate how it works I’ll give an example.

    Look at the Luxor 17 ( Keith 17 ) row and move across it until you get to the Luxor 19 ( Keith 19 ) column.

    You can see the big number is 100.0. This tells us that Luxor 17 ( Keith 17 ) shares 100% of it’s selections with Luxor 19 ( Keith 19 ). Every selection Luxor 17 makes Luxor 19 also makes. Looking at the smaller figures we can see it made 2425 bets that were also made by Luxor 19 and made a profit of 501.80 pts on those bets. We can also see that it made 0 bets that were not shared by Luxor 19 and of course made 0 profit from them.

    Looking at it the other way around using the Luxor 19 row and Luxor 17 column we can still see that 2425 bets were identical to Luxor 17 but this time it equates to 69.2% of the systems total bets. 1077 bets were placed by Luxor 19 that were not also placed by Luxor 17. The profit from these was 144.75 pts.

    Again what this suggests to us is that maybe we would be better with a double stake on Luxor 19 instead of single stakes on 17 & 19. A double stake on 19 would cover all the selections 17 would make but also benefit from the profit on the ones it doesn’t.

    Another example would be Luxor 08 and Luxor 10 ( Keith 8 & 10 )

    Looking across the Luxor 10 row we can see 100% of the selections it makes are also made by Luxor 08, 1697 bets, profit 417.30 pts

    Looking across Luxor 08 instead we can see the same number of identical bets but also that 08 placed 4995 extra bets for a loss of 152.94 pts.

    So again placing double stakes on Luxor 10 would still cover the profitable portion of Luxor 08 but without the loss making portion.

    For anyone still reading I applaud you for your stamina as I can tend to ramble on a bit but I hope it has given you some things to ponder on when creating a portfolio.

    I’m sure Stephen will be on at some point to explain in more detail why he chose the portfolio he did for the trial which might be infinitely more help than all I’ve just typed.lol

    Keith

  4. bertie winthrop says

    Hi Lucy,
    Just checked this page because it is one of the “10 most popular posts today”, but there hasn’t been a post here for 16 days?
    Can’t quite grasp that one…

    Do you mean that today it is one of the 10 most visited posts from all the posts in the archive?
    If so, how about “Todays Favourites”

    Cheers
    Bertie (pedantic I know ;-))

  5. says

    Hi Bertie

    I can answer that for you.

    On the right you have 3 panels

    Recent Posts – The most recent new posts by the LBAGR team, not comments but the initial post.

    Latest Comments – The latest additions to the team posts by anyone, this is the one you want if you are looking for the latest comments to existing posts.

    Top 10 most popular posts – The 10 posts with the most views in the day, doesn’t mean there are any new comments just that more people have looked at these posts than any of the others.

    Hope that helps

    Keith

    btw I get an email when anything is added to this post which is why I’ve seen your comment :-)

    • Lucy says

      Bertie,

      Err… What Keith said, basically. :-)

      I added the “10 most popular posts” thing as I thought some folks might wish to know what other readers were interested in.

      There is often no correlation whatsoever between traffic and comment volume.

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