For any fan of racing, it’s wonderful to see the amazing Frankel back on the turf this afternoon (specifically in the 3.40 @ Newbury). I love this horse, however as a punter, I have to say that the current market price of 1.3 does not make my heart race!
So I simply have to point out that the Punt of the Day has to be an each-way bet on second favourite Excelebration – a horse who, on any other day against almost any other competition, would be a red hot favourite.
Excelebration is an absolute beauty, currently priced at 4 at 888sport and BlueSq. Yes, there are longer odds on the exchanges, but their place prices are hopeless (1.3 anyone!?). So I’m betting as follows:
- £50 each-way (i.e. £100 in total) on Excelebration at BlueSq at odds of 4
- £60 lay in the Betfair place market, at 1.3, again on Excelebration
This has the effect of giving me longer odds on Excelebration than those currently available by simple backing as (hopefully) explained below.
|Decimal Odds||stake||horse wins||horse places||horse loses|
|1.3 (place mkt lay)||£60.00||-£18.00||-£18.00||£57.00|
So I will win £169.50 if Excelebration comes homes in front, and will only lose £30.50 if (as expected) he finishes second – which gives me effective decimal odds on the win of 6.56.
If Excelebration fails to place, I lose £43, which means, in this case, that the bet on him winning was at decimal odds of 4.94.
As Excelebration is currently available on the exchanges at 4.8, I consider this a very good value sequence of bets. The only thing is – I still think Frankel will probably win!
What is a value bettor to do!?
Fingers crossed for Excelebration…