For any fan of racing, it’s wonderful to see the amazing Frankel back on the turf this afternoon (specifically in the 3.40 @ Newbury). I love this horse, however as a punter, I have to say that the current market price of 1.3 does not make my heart race!
So I simply have to point out that the Punt of the Day has to be an each-way bet on second favourite Excelebration – a horse who, on any other day against almost any other competition, would be a red hot favourite.
Excelebration is an absolute beauty, currently priced at 4 at 888sport and BlueSq. Yes, there are longer odds on the exchanges, but their place prices are hopeless (1.3 anyone!?). So I’m betting as follows:
- £50 each-way (i.e. £100 in total) on Excelebration at BlueSq at odds of 4
- £60 lay in the Betfair place market, at 1.3, again on Excelebration
This has the effect of giving me longer odds on Excelebration than those currently available by simple backing as (hopefully) explained below.
| Decimal Odds | stake | horse wins | horse places | horse loses |
| 1.3 (place mkt lay) | £60.00 | -£18.00 | -£18.00 | £57.00 |
| 4(EW win) | £50.00 | £150.00 | -£50.00 | -£50.00 |
| 4(EW place) | £50.00 | £37.50 | £37.50 | -£50.00 |
| profit | £169.50 | -£30.50 | -£43.00 | |
| effective odds | 6.56 | 4.94 |
So I will win £169.50 if Excelebration comes homes in front, and will only lose £30.50 if (as expected) he finishes second – which gives me effective decimal odds on the win of 6.56.
If Excelebration fails to place, I lose £43, which means, in this case, that the bet on him winning was at decimal odds of 4.94.
As Excelebration is currently available on the exchanges at 4.8, I consider this a very good value sequence of bets. The only thing is – I still think Frankel will probably win!
What is a value bettor to do!?
Fingers crossed for Excelebration…
Lx
Wow – what a race. Frankel really is the sort of horse that makes you jump out of your seat and cheer!
It does leave me with a slight puzzle though – should you always go with the value bet and play the long game (which is what I did here..), or do you go with your gut and bet on the champion at any price!?
Lx
But Frankel was the value bet! Just cos something is short does not mean it is not value.
‘The’ value bet??
There can, I believe, be more than one value bet in a race, though after the race is over we all know which one represented true value! But my question was aiming at something slightly different… whether we should bet on whoever we believe will win, irrespective of price, or on who represents best value.
In my view at the time, without the benefit of hindsight of course, Frankel did not look like value to me, though I had a feeling he would probably come home in front…. It’s an age old debate, and maybe one without a right answer ?
Lx