Well, to celebrate my return to the wet and windy world that is the UK, I thought I would include something a bit special on my site this week…. a free arb alarm service!
All you have to do to be able to access my dynamically updated free arb alarm service is send an email to lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com or leave a message in the comment section below. You will then be granted access to all the free arbs you can shake a stick at.
Now, to give you an idea of what’s possible…. I recently locked in a nice little arb on the Sweden v France group game in Euro 2012. I backed the Sweden win and the draw at Stan James (first two prices below)…
Sweden France arb 1
…and took a price of 2.2 at NordicBet on France….
Sweden France Arb 2
Using the wonderful smoothing facility in the Windows Arbitrage Calculator (about which you can read more here!), I came up with the following risk-free arb!
Euro 2012 Sweden v France arb
So suddenly I’m a Sweden fan!! £15 profit if they win, £6 for the draw, and £10 if France triumph. 
In fact, you don’t even need a calculator, but can simply place your bets in the proportions shown in the Staking column produced by the free Arb Alarm calculator. So if you are arbing with (say) a sum of £100, you could simply convert the percentages shown into pounds and pence. That said, when arbing, you really should be rounding your bets to the nearest whole pound at least. Try not to place bets for exact amounts of pence or your bookie may close your account.
So what can go wrong? … Well, remember that there is no such thing as an entirely risk-free bet. In particular, if your arb depends on exceptionally long odds from one bookie, you may fall foul of palpable error clauses. These allow bookies to void winning bets after an event has finished on the grounds that the odds quoted were self-evidently incorrect. So it’s definitely worth exercising caution where a potential arb appears too good to be true.
One last thing…There is also an Odds Comparison tab above (immediately to the right of “SureBets”), plus even more sophisticated options for Asian Lines and Middles (which I once promised to explain but never did… more on Middles next week!).
Anyway, please feel free to give the new arb alarm service a go. And keep checking back as this page updates dynamically… Then, all you have to do is click through to the bookie website to confirm the odds quoted, and you could be on to a real winner!
Have fun,
Lx
Love it i think you have done a great job with this. I want to get into this form of making money the sooner the better . I just need to build my betting bank up a bit more, and then the fun starts .
Paul
Glad you approve!
I do expect Euro 2012 to throw up some interesting arbitrage opportunities as it is likely that bookies in different countries will look at matches involving their own sides from a biased perspective. Thus I was unsurprised to see that NordicBet think so little of France’s hopes of beating the mighty Swedes!
Lx
Hi
I take it this is just me being thick but where is this?
Carol,
You can access my dynamically updated arb calculator here. But you will need a password first which I’m happy to send you.
Lx
Oh sorry, I thought it was just a screen shot from another web site. See, I told you it was me being thick!
Never let it be said that all arbitrage opportunities are short-lived.
I just checked and the opportunity on the Sweden V France match is still available almost a week after I first highlighted it! The bookmakers and the prices quoted above remain completely unchanged.
Maybe I should’ve called this article Arb of the Fortnight!!
Lx
Hi Lucy
Thanks for this excellent guide.
I’m a newbie to this however, so naturally have a question (or two!).
In your example of the Sweden vs France game you have staked a total of £210 and you write that:
So suddenly I’m a Sweden fan!! £15 profit if they win, £6 for the draw, and £10 if France triumph.
But you’re only paid out on the result that comes in. So you may make £15 profit if they win, but you lose your lay bets which amount to £160? Or are these Asian HC bets where the bets are refunded based on the bet selection? It’s not clear from your article what the specifics are.
Thanks and keep up the great writing – this will be particularly during the Euros!
Matt
Welcome to my site!
I placed £50 at 4.5 on Sweden, so if my bet comes up I will receive £175 winnings. However I will lose £160 in total on the other two bets, leaving me with a net profit of £15.
Similarly in the event of a draw or a French win, I will profit overall, though not by quite as much.
But this is how an arb works. By covering all possibilities and ensuring a net profit in any event.
It just so happens on this occasion that a Swedish win produces the best outcome, hence my comments about cheering them on!
Lx
Brilliant! Thanks for that – managed to get my head around it.
One question I have is that your advice is to do smaller bets and make lots of smaller bets at 2-4% profit over time to build up to your £1000 a month. However, and I realise this would raise some red flags almost immediately, but why not just do one decent sized bet a month (assuming you have the capital)?
For example, I’m looking at the GAIS – GIF Sundsvall (14:00) match above. If I stake £200 the profit (assuming I don’t smooth out the stakes – which I would!) comes out at a tasty £13.70. However, I could stake £10,000 and my profit would be £685. I assume we don’t do this because the bookies would be on to you immediately, but if you did this once a month, or rotated every couple of months across the plethora of bookies, would this not be acceptable or would they still track you down eventually and close down your accounts?
Thanks again – really nice blog you have here.
Matt
Yes, basically, I think you’ve kind of answered your own question here. The problem with any arb is you never can be entirely 100% sure you are going to have your bet accepted… until you have placed the bet. So, saying you placed a bet of around £5000 and it was accepted, how confident would you feel as you went to place the next bet with the next bookie?
Obviously if a bet isn’t accepted, you can always attempt to trade out (possibly at a small loss) by choosing the ‘next best’ bookie offer, but it’s always harder – and more stressful – to get large wagers away. And of course, if you’re working with sums of £10,000, that small loss might not end up being so small after all…
Lx
Hi Lucy
Sorry – told you I’d have a question or two!
I’m trying to create my own calculator to calculate the potential returns in Excel. This is straightforward when it’s standard back or lay betting, but with Asian Handicaps the odds are not straightforward as bets are void in certain scenarios (so the profit derived is no longer dependent on subtracting losses against one that returns across two or more bookies). Is there any way to calculate these returns based on these variable factors? Does Windows Arbitrage Calculator take this into account?
Thanks for your help and advice.
Matt,
Windows Arbitrage Calculator does not take this into account. And I agree, a calculator that does – if you can either find or create one – would be a useful commodity. Maybe you could develop one?
That said, my arb alarm service works out the staking proportions for you in the right hand column. Just multiply the percentages shown by your total stake. Then round slightly to avoid unwanted bookie attention.
thanks
Lucy x
Thanks Lucy for another amazing tool.
I have been “playing” with this new toy and I´m in love with it…..
I don´t have the words to tell how I feel with all the things you gave to us all.
Send more, please!!!!
Nuno
Glad you like it.
My advice is to try to stick to major European leagues where you can, and preferably the top couple of divisions in each. Certainly if you suddenly display an unusual interest in Peruvian Women’s Amateur Futsal, you will find your average bookmaker raising an eyebrow.
Lx
Hi Lucy,
Please send me a p/w to gain access to your arb alarm. Could you also pls send me the link to the page where i enter the p/w….For there are just so many fine items on your site, that i tend to get a bit overwhelmed and lose my direction!
Gerald
Gerald
Flattery, as they say, will get you everywhere.
The arb alarm service can be accessed by clicking here.
I have emailed you the password.
Lucy x
Good Afternoon Lucy, Can I please have the password for your arb alarm service
David
I’ve emailed you the details.
Lucy x
Are you doing this for free lucy,ie the arb service if so can i join please….john knight…cheshire
John
I’ve mailed you the details
regards
Lucy x
Another £15 profit from an arb, though I’ve had to wait a while for this one! Still, together with last night’s profits from Ireland v Italy, it’s proving to be a profitable European championship.
Lx
Hi Lucy,
Could i get access to this please,
Many thanks
Nick
Hello Nick
Nice to hear from you, and thanks for your interest.
Unfortunately, for liquidity reasons, I’ve had to restrict access to SkewTrader Pro & 8th Pillar customers.
kind regards
Lucy
Hi Lucy. I know it’s a few months down the line but could I have the password to this and your middles service if they are still free use with the passwords.
Mikey x
Mikey
Thank you for your interest in my site.
Unfortunately, I have had to restrict access to my arbs and middles to SkewTrader Pro customers only. i.e. They now come as a free bonus with that product, but are not available separately.
kind regards
Lucy x