The long promised review of Rebel Betting finally arrives…
I have been hinting at this system for a while now, but haven’t had a minute to test it. Until now…. (and I’ve only managed it by spreading a 1 week trial over 2 weeks!). And instead of a full-blown trial, I have decided to carry out more of an ‘overview’ of the software, and the possibilities it presents.
And I can report that the good news is that Rebel Betting is a very powerful piece of software. I’ve spent entire evenings playing with it – and I’m exhausted! There is almost too much to tell you about….
- ranked arbs, where the Return on Investment is used to sort the size of the opportunity into priority sequence
- middles (i.e. arbs where if you’re lucky, both sides can win for dramatic returns)
- automated warnings about palpable errors (where bookies can decide not to pay out after all, because their error is deemed to have been ‘palpable’, thereby rendering the bet invalid)
- bookmakers from all over the world (with no less than 36 in regular use)
- in-built arbitrage calculators, so you don’t need to do any of the sums yourself
- my favourite feature – embedded betting screens which take you directly to the bet entry screen – rather than expecting you to wade through some massive bookie’s site to find a Slovenian Third Division reserve match all by yourself!
In short, it is all quite overwhelming to start with.
The good news is that there is a very sensible 37 page manual that you download when you subscribe; and also some pretty straightforward system options that allow you to focus on just a few types of arb to get you going.
The system also looks good, and navigates really well. Consider the following straightforward back-and-lay arb:
Rebel Betting bet entry screen
What you are looking at here is the screen used to place actual bets. Rebel Betting brought up two panels within the same window, one for the back bet (at Coral’s), and the other for the lay (at Betfair). I have circled the team I have bet on, to show how the software has correctly located the same game on each site – a remarkable achievement that could save an ocean of time.
Unfortunately this particular arb is for trivial amounts, as it was constrained by Betfair liquidity, but the power of the software design is clear to see.
The software even does the same thing for three-way arbs (e.g. home, away and draw), though in this case, it can be quite hard to work on each of the underlying sites, as your physical screen size can constrain you, and it feels like you’re typing through a letter box! I suppose in this case though there is nothing to stop you using your ordinary browser to jump to the bookie’s site.
I will add updates on my progress with Rebel Betting over the next few days…
Lx
Rebel Betting Update, 25/11/11
Well, I’ve been meaning to add some more thoughts about Rebel Betting all week but I’ve been putting it off as I have quite mixed feelings about it.
OK, first things first: Rebel Betting works. So if you take the absurdly simple example above between two teams I have never heard of: Slaven Belupo lost to Istra and made me a net profit of 66 pence. I lost £10 at Coral’s, and made £10.66 at Betfair after commission. This represents a return of about 3%.
If you ignore the ‘palpable arbs’ that RB goes out of its way to warn you against (i.e. arbs with an ROI typically over 5%), you are likely to come up with a lot of 3%-ish returns. So you are going to have to place some very big arbs to make this work, and spend a lot of time doing it. Add in a ‘wasted time’ factor – as several of the arbs I have tried this week have disappeared by the time I got there – and you are starting to look at a significant commitment of time. Why? Because Rebel Betting may be brilliant, bordering even on genius, but it is also pretty expensive.
A one month subscription to Rebel Betting will cost you 129 euros. Or you can go for the quarterly option, which works out slightly cheaper, at 116 euros a month; or finally (in extremely small print on the subscription screen!), there is an option to subscribe for 594 euros over six months, which works out at 99 euros a month.
Which ever option you choose though, it follows you are going to have to make a lot of 66 pence arbs to get your money back! Hardly a fault of the software; more a feature of life with arbing when you’re paying sizeable subscriptions for your alert system.
There is however a one week trial option that only costs 9 euros, but if you do decide to try this (and it’s a very good idea in my view), please immediately cancel the repeat subscription as soon as you’ve paid. You’ll still get your full week’s trial, and it’ll stop you being debited 129 euros seven days later.
Now I recognise that all my quibbles about the price may be unfair, because, as I say, Rebel Betting is a seriously impressive piece of software, and undoubtedly, even at these levels, you should be able to make a clear profit. But it’s basically not offering you much that you can’t get from Sportspunter.com, and you can get that for around £52 a month by plumping for their annual option. (Sportspunter.com does not however have, as far as I can see, the embedded bet placement feature above, but still… it is a lot cheaper). And pricing matters more with this kind of betting than, I think, with any other, as high stakes arbing is purely about return on investment. Meaning, it definitely isn’t fun to do! I’d even go so far as to say it’s tedious in the extreme over any length of time.
Selection of one of the long-running pricing options is however still probably the right way to go if you are going to sign up, as either of these products is going to take a lot of time to master. You will need to invest time, money and patience while you do so, and you should be looking to keep your costs down as you learn, because you may actually lose money whilst you get the hang of it in months one and two.
You will also need a lot of bookmaker accounts, and some pretty smart money management. It stands to reason you will have to use Moneybookers (or Skrill as it is now called) to minimise the risk of credit card charges and reduce transfer delays. You will also have to keep very close tabs on where you are with each bookie, as you are likely to be betting very large sums, and there is therefore a high risk of your accounts getting limited. Personally, I think I would probably get pretty confused as to where I was up to if I got up to the 30-odd accounts required to exploit Rebel Betting fully.
So at the end of it, my feeling is: this is a career, not a part-time income. It might though be particularly well suited to someone who has retired and is looking to top up their pension income, but I fear they may go a little crazy doing it. If you do sign up, please don’t forget to go outside once in a while!
My personal conclusion is that there are easier ways of arbing, but that’s simply my own choice. They don’t however involve spending thousands of euros on subscriptions. For instance, review the comments below regarding the use of the ‘Keep’ option in Betfair.…OK, it’s not strictly arbing but a light form of trading, but it’s free, fun, simple, and works for me.
Rebel Betting is therefore going in neither the Passed or Failed Category. I can’t bring myself to ‘can’ it, as it really is a brilliant piece of software. But, in my view, it is sadly, ultimately, overkill.
Lx
ps For those of you tracking my Bet365 reload arb (see Arb of the Week, 06/11/11 – 12/11/11), I have backed and laid Know No Fear in the 1.15 @ Lingfield on Saturday, and am aiming to lock in a small profit by securing good lay odds on Betfair. I have backed for £100 at 6, and am trying to lay at no more than 5.6… so have used the Keep option to allow my bet to go forward into the in-play matching if needs be….
Bottom line – I will hang on to as much of that Bet365 £100 reload bonus as possible!!
x
Well, Know no Fear was a non-runner, so I have longer to wait for my £100 bonus! Darn
So, to speed things up a bit, I have dropped £150 on Frontier Spirit at odds of 4 in the 1.55 at Ffos Las, and am looking for lay odds of 3.75 on Betfair, for a stake of £158.25. Assuming I get matched, this locks in a small profit either way.
For insurance, I have again selected the ‘Keep’ option in Betfair – as favourites yo-yo around in-running, and as mentioned before, are now almost certain to match up during the race if not prior to it, provided we don’t get too greedy.
x
Well that went well. Frontier Spirit won, and brought me a little arb bonus of £32.94. This was owing to a rule 4 application which, as I have noted previously, never seems quite as draconian on the back side of an arb (i.e. at the bookies) as the equivalent downgrade at Betfair (which doesn’t follow rule 4, but re-calibrates the odds to its own mysterious formula). So my Betfair lay ended up at only 3.35, which more than compensated for the rule 4 deduction at Bet365.
I’d made a small loss on this long-running reload arb previously, but am now ahead overall to the tune of £30.67, with that extra £100 prize getting ever closer! I jus’ need another £300 worth of turnover, and then….. a new pair of shoes for Lucy!
xx
OK another £100 backed on to Mangonel at 2.75 in the 3.40 at Kempton. Am looking for 2.6 at a stake of £105.50 on Betfair… which is a stretch as it’s currently laying at 2.84. Once again I’ve selected the magic Keep option….
xx
And another little arb winner… with the Keep option helping me add another £6.20 to the kitty by matching at 2.6 as planned, long before Mangonel romped home. This brings the total profit on my reload arb to £36.87, with another £200 of bets still to be placed…
x
I’m rather enjoying locking in profit on the way to my Bet365 £100 bonus, so I’m going to try and pull the same trick off this afternoon….
I have backed Hole in One at 5 in the 1.15 at Musselburgh, and layed off at 4.6 at Betfair, with a stake of £52.75 to cover commission. Again, I have used the wonderful little Keep option on Betfair to look for in-play matching if I don’t get matched before the off.
As you can probably tell by now, I do think not enough is made of the Keep option, but it is a very neat way of securing profit. I am also still playing Rebel Betting, which I am increasingly inclined to think may be too complicated for most ‘ordinary’ punters, whereas a lot of benefit can simply be accrued by not buying anything from anyone – but merely by exploiting this one very neat Betfair feature…
x
OK Hole In One missed out, but our lay got matched at 4.6, so we had a free bet that didn’t work out, but still made the princely sum of 11p. More importantly, we also took another step towards achieving the rollover requirement required to unlock the Bet365 £100 bonus….
So that’s five arbs placed so far, for a combined Bet365 stake of £450. We’ve made £36.98 along the way, and only now need to stake a further £150. (I think! – though it isn’t actually that clear from a re-read of the T’s and C’s. But we’re not far off!).
For the record, that £36.98 profit brings the Arb of the Week balance up to £137.96 after 19 arbs, at an average of £7.26 per arb. Obviously we will see the average improve dramatically once we cash out our Bet365 bonus.
x
OK I’ve now backed £150 on Brindisi Breeze at 3 in the 3.30 at Musselburgh, and am looking to lay off at 2.76, again using the Keep option as insurance.
It’s important when chasing lay stake odds not to be greedy. A useful rule of thumb I use is to only set the lay stake at a level equal to or greater than the ‘average’ backing odds being offered by the bookies. Thus from a quick look at oddschecker.com, I can see that most bookmakers are offering 2.75 on Brindisi Breeze – so I am not being unreasonable trying to match my lay at a shade above this level.
x
Well, Brindisi Breeze narrowly missed out, so that particular arb only netted 34 pence, instead of £21.48 that first place would have delivered. However, on the plus side, Bet365 released their £100 bonus into my eager clutches, as I have now fully satisfied their £600 staking requirement!
This happy outcome brings the Arb of the Week running balance to £238.30 (ignoring Rebel Betting which I have discussed in my update in the main article above). This has been achieved via 20 arbs, and represents an average arb value of £11.92. If repeated on a daily basis for a month, we could therefore expect to make in excess of £350 tax free.
How long my little arb balance survives is of course an entirely separate matter. Tomorrow is Saturday and Lucy is going shopping…
xx
Over priced piece of software. 129 euros each month, they have to be joking. That will certainly destroy and edge you find with the arbs
I know… but you can’t help but like it when you use it. Such a disappointment!! I found myself thinking… maybe we could get a bunch of people together to write en masse to Rebel Betting to request a group discount!
x
Well done on securing your bonus payout, Lucy. I think you are on to something with your earlier comment about setting your lay odds in line with the bookies average odds. A clever little idea, that !!!
Ah Nathan, I owe you that one! Can we call it a team effort??
xxx
Firstly, considering the insight you have given me in regards to this kind of low risk trading, you don’t owe me a thing and secondly you can call it whatever you like, that’s fine with me !
Aw, what a lovely thing to say, thank you
xx
Excellent review of rebel betting. I have used it for 2 months during a prolonged work drought.
At first it was excellent with B365 and Stan James providing very fruitful opportunities. Unfortunately such bookmakers, along with Paddy, BillHill and other ‘high street’ bookies soon restrict your accounts and then it gets more difficult. The arbs began to disappear rapidly and it became increasingly harder to make a decent ROI for the time and frustraton! Pinnacle, Ladbrokes, Bet188, SBOBet were the best for allowing large bets to be placed but a number of other service registered bookmakers would not allow you to place the size of bet required to make a decent profit.
The use of RB was a good education and the direct links to bookies was great. But unfortunately the subscription is just too large to justify the time needed and the frustration it induces to make it a viable long term investment strategy. I have gone back to trading on Betfair and of course utilising the bookie bonus accounts in a ‘family friendly’ way! I am still looking for good ‘near arbing’ / low risk strategies to help me make a decent profit as I am ‘between jobs’. Any tried and trusted contributions gratefully received!
Pete,
Thank you for your kind comments and welcome to my site.
Sports arbitrage is tantalising isn’t it ? I know it sounds a shameless plug for my Skewtrader Pro product but the huge amounts involved in traditional arbing are what led me to look for alternatives. I used to be terrified of the potential impact of incorrect keying as I was dealing in ridiculous sums.
Anyway it’s nice to have you with us.
Best regards
Lucy x
Hi Lucy.
I only recently discovered your site but, I have to admit, I’m enjoying it a lot! You really seem to know your stuff! I particularly enjoyed your ’1K a month’ guide and, even though there was nothing essentially new to me, I found it very inspirational and packed with clever ideas.
Anyway, on this RebelBetting thing, I have to say this is how I got into sports arbing/trading. I’ve been a long time user of the service myself (more than a year now) and I have to say I really enjoyed the potential for profit in it, I really got into it and managed to make a decent income from it, although you’re totally right about the size of the stakes it requires (I didn’t know there was any other way at the time!) So, soon enough, I started getting limited right and left. Long story short, after Ladbrokes decided to close my account (limiting me was not enough it seems) I knew I had to start looking elsewhere. Nowadays I’m mostly into trading, but your guide really got me thinking about your ‘low stakes arbing’ system, so I’m pretty sure I’ll be taking a look at Skewtrader sooner than later…
Keep up the fantastic work!
Harry
Thank you very much for your kind comments and welcome to my site!
I’d be interested to know what sort of income you managed to make from Rebel Betting, and also how much time & effort was required to extract a worthwhile amount of cash.
I must admit to being amused at Ladbrokes actually closing your account. They really didn’t want you did they??
Lx
Hi. You’re most welcome.
Well, about the amount I made, I have to say that it varied quite a bit throughout the months. That’s because in the beginning I wanted to stay really safe as I thought this was a bit ‘too good to be true’ honestly, so I kept my stakes really small. Then, as I grew confident that it was working as expected, I started raising my stakes till I got to three figures, at which point I managed to make roughly around 1K a month, and this was only working during the mornings (3-4 hours). That was at the peak, and at that moment I really thought I had stumbled upon a goldmine. Even if the pay was not huge, the small amount of time it required was exactly what I was looking for. It of course required a good amount of accounting, etc., but this wasn’t hard for me, I’ve always enjoyed working with numbers and computers…
Soon of course, I realised it wouldn’t last forever when the bookies started shutting their doors. I had to start working longer hours for less return. Some of them had already limited me well before I reached my 3 figure stakes, but in the beginning it looked as if I would just need to find better ones that would want my business. Then I realised eventually most of them would go the same route, and so it happened, till finally Ladbrokes decided to close my account, and I decided that was it…
Looking back, I probably could have managed to keep my profile much lower than I did, but then I was just learning, the hard way you could say, since now I don’t have access to most of them (the big ones anyway, except of course Pinnacle, Betfair and a few others..)
Well, that’s more or less my story
Trying different routes now, learning to trade and loving it so far, the ROIs I can reach here (when I win of course) are a dream for an arber.. Then, of course, the sense of security you have as an arber would be amazing for any trader. You can’t have it all I guess! 
Regards
Harry
Well it sounds like you had a pretty good run – well done!
I think your tale is very instructive though so thank you for sharing. Firstly, it underscores the need to ‘stay under the bookies’ radar’ – and not let enthusiasm get the better of us! And secondly, it does suggest what I have long thought, that trading is the logical place to go.
(Well, and laying, but that’s just me
).
Thanks – a really good post.
Lx
Wondering if worth cashing out on Betfair with my lay as have a back bet on another bookie which will get me a free bet and hope my back bet wins.
example : Back Uruguay £50 (that gets me free bet and lay Uruguay £48, if I cash out and hope Uruguay wins
Tom
Welcome to my site, nice to have you with us.
If what you’re saying is that you have backed at a bookmaker’s via one of their free bonuses – such that you have a second bet due to come to you – then indeed, the method you describe is a fairly typical way to cash out. There are however a lot of bookies offering a lot of different promotions, all of which come with varying amounts of small print, so you do have to be clear on the terms of the deal.
Some bookies offer “stake not returned” free bets, whereas others will return the bonus stake if you win. These differences have a direct effect on how you cash out.. in short, you have to lay them for different amounts at Betfair.
In order to simplify life, and avoid mishaps, I recommend use of Mike’s Bonus Bagging to exploit bonuses fully. It really is an extremely professional service, that will allow you to get the best out of the various offers on the market.
You can read my extensive review of Mike’s Bonus Bagging service by clicking here.
Lx
Hi Lucy,
Great thread.
To fellow users, I asked Lucy about Rebel betting, she provided the link to this page. This is really helpful and definitely helped with my decision about Rebel Betting. Lucy this website is like World Wide Web about betting. Great site with great info.
Thank you,
Shan
Aw Shan, what a lovely thing to say.
thanks xxx